BONUS LUNCHTIME UPDATE BECAUSE NEW INFO
The Storm Prediction Center issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM for Sumner and Wilson Counties, along with several counties east of there.
In the Watch area,
Category: Forecast Blogs (Legacy)
Two Days With Rain Chances, Two Days With No Rain Chances (probably), Then We’ll See
The next two afternoons and evenings will carry rain chances. Pretty typical for this time of the year.
The HRRR model (above) thinks we dodge most of the activity today. It’s hard to put a lot of confidence in that, but it’s a good sign I suppose. Any storm that does pop up today could contain lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds and some small hail. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Clearing Out Later For The Moms, Not A Bad Week Ahead
Steeplechase, Mother’s Day, And All Things In Between
Some showers currently moving thru, these should be quick and of little consequence. The big blob of scary, rain-out looking rain to our west, the HRRR model (below) expects it to fizzle out and become a distant memory of the past, except maybe some showers. Best chance for some showers would be early-afternoon, if you see any at all.
Clearing Out This Evening, Two(?) Chances For Rain Saturday
🎵”Loud thunder, heavy rainnnn”🎵 is what awoke my dog this morning, which means it was also time for me to get up.
There’s a brief break before another round of on/off rain/storms move through. Lightning is possible with this as well. HRRR model (below) does a pretty good job of showing it, timestamp in the upper left. No severe weather concerns.
Cutting Footloose and Good News for Horses
None of the models picked up on the chance of rain this morning. Nevertheless, some of us are getting rain. A great reminder that models are farrrr away from perfect.
HRRR model shows additional showers/storms popping up around lunch and continuing through the afternoon. No severe weather is expected, but lightning, gusty winds and small hail are possible.
Great Hump Day, Iffy Rest of the Week
Pretty solid HUMPPPP day (shoutout Lelan). It’ll be quite warm, but should stay dry, until maybe tonight.
HRRR shows a band of showers/storms approaching tonight from the SW. Looks like it will almost completely collapse before it gets here. Maybe just some showers. Might have a cool light show if you look to the southwest though. Maybe you are outside, chatting with a friend, they hit you with the “oh look, heat lightning!” This is when you swoop in, like an eagle, and impress them with your vast knowledge. “Nonono, there is actually no such thing as ‘heat lightning’, it’s just lightning from a storm far away!” They’ll probably respond with “lol ok nerd” but just know deep down inside they are impressed.
Nice Today and Tomorrow, Then Rain Returns
There’s a clear sky overhead and temps should reach the mid 80s. Rad.
After the last weekend and last night, we could use it.
Some of us are waking up with damage. If you have damage from storms last night, please use #tspotter when you tweet it to us. There may have been some straight line wind damage for some of us, but no rotation was observed. The NWS said that an area of 55-65 mph winds were possible in Wilson county last night.
Late Night for the Swifties, Warm Temps, Scattered Storms
You paint me a blue sky / Then go back and turn it to rain
As I sit down to write, the dewpoint is up, now 63°, step outside you’ll feel the summertime quality humidity. High dewpoints are storm fuel.
The high temp today is 86°. South winds are running 10-13 MPH, gusting under 20 MPH. Things will be quiet this morning and early this afternoon, allowing our atmosphere to destabilize. That’s not great for us, y’all.