Probably won’t rain today. Not totes sure about that but I’m keeping my outdoor plans.

• A few models think some of us will see a few light mid afternoon showers.
• Most models think no rain.
• Latest HRRR run has it all just missing us 👇🏽

Rain expected Sunday.

• Off and on.
• Average rainfall 0.1″ won’t dent our drought.
• Some areas should get more than 0.1″, others less.

• Few thunderstorms possible (more likely in the afternoon) but nothing severe.
• Meh.

Frozen Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday mornings incoming. Below chart shows lows around freezing. Most local backyards get a bit colder than official lows so expect below freezing temps 👇🏽: read more

Fires may spread quickly out of control because

• of winds 5-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH,
• while the air is super dry with relative humidity approaching 20%, and
• the ground remains super dry despite Weds night rain. We remain in drought.

The Warning expires at 7 PM.

Late Saturday into Sunday rain looks meh, off and on. Total under 0.20″ won’t dent drought.

🌩️ Few thunderstorms possible Saturday but the meh severe risk is in that dark green way west of us Saturday 👇🏽 read more

It’s been a while since we’ve had rain chances so close to each other, but don’t get your hopes up, this next chance doesn’t look to be much.

🌧️The Euro model above shows rain chances Saturday thru Sunday. read more

Some light showers this morning – no worries with these.

🕜 General ETA for main line of storms is 4-7 PM –> HRRR model thinks 5-6 PM (This could very easily change, stay connected!)

🕜 NAM3k model thinks storms in front of the line arrive 6-7 PM, while the main line gets here around 10-11 PM. (Majority of models lean toward the HRRR solution, ETA of 4-7PM is more likely, but it is unwise to discount any model). read more

⚠️Updated from earlier today.

This morning we thought the storms would come in around 9 PM to 10 PM Wednesday night. Now we think that’s earlier.

⌚ HRRR model ETA is now 5 PM to 6 PM. Timing may change so stay informed. read more

I’ve forgotten what it looks like, but it may* rain from above on Wednesday. Yes, maybe, not for sure.

Two models show two different solutions. Sus.

The EURO (below) shows very little, if any. Maybe just enough to get the ground a lil’ wet. read more

What’ll be a 31 day streak without 0.02″+ of rain might end Thursday morning.

🗣️ Wait, what was that about “might“?

• It’s still a bit sus. Rain misses us in the last two Euro model runs, it goes east. (Makes sense, the good “moisture return” is east).

• GFS disagrees, delivers streak-breaking rain 👇🏽

🗣️ Which one is right?

National Blend of Models thinks rain totaling 0.4″, so I guess go for that? I’m not betting on anything. We need the higher res models to get into range Tuesday to get a grip. read more

Frost Advisory tonight.

Cover or shelter beloved frost sensitive plants.

• Advisory is technically for overnight, 1 AM to 9 AM. Coldest temps will last for a few hours around sunrise.
• We do not think it’ll freeze but it’ll be close.
• Models came in about three degrees colder overnight. BNA’s low went from 40° to 37°.
• Your backyard is usually colder than BNA during fall and winter mornings.

Rain increasingly likely late Wednesday into Thursday.

• GFS, Euro, and National Blend of Models show 0.6″ to 1.2″ rain total.
• Most of this should fall Thursday.

🤞🏽 Thunderstorms – probably not severe – may accompany this rain. This’ll be a “high shear, low instability” event common here in the fall. read more

Dry cold front arrives today.

• No big deal.
• Upper 30°s for most backyards early Sunday morning.
• Official BNA low 40° Sunday morning. BNA is among the warmer local spots during fall and winter mornings.
• Frost unlikely, except on roofs.

Gradual warmup next week 📈.

Drought continues ⌛

• Has not rained more than 0.02″ since September 11.
• Next rain chance Wed-Thu next week. Not much, total of 0.3″ or so on average. This is a low confidence forecast.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. read more

We are all “abnormally dry.”

• Even worse: most of Nashville is in a moderate drought.

You know how it happened:

• Our last rain of more than a tenth of an inch was 0.44″ on September 11.
• We average 3.80″ from Sept 1 to Oct 6. This year we’ve had 1.43″, almost all of which came the first two weeks of Sept.

Not even a chance of rain until maybe late Wednesday, Oct. 12. Low confidence in that.

It’s a great time to seal your driveway or stain your deck. read more