No improvement with today’s drought monitor update, as both our counties continue with a Moderate to Severe Drought.
Drought conditions are expected to worsen as very little rain is in the forecast.
Drought Continues to Drought
Elan
Patiently Waiting for Cooler Weather
While the temps haven’t been just unbearable, it just doesn’t quite feel like Fall just yet. And it won’t over the next several days.
Starting tomorrow (Thursday), we should see afternoon high temps reach 90° several days, including this weekend, adding onto our already above-average total of 90°+ days in 2024.
Above-Average Temps & No Meaningful Rain in the Foreseeable Future
High temps slowly climbing to the low 90s by this weekend, about 10° above average for this time of year (82°).
Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s, so those low 90s won’t be unbearable.
Unfortunately, still no meaningful rain chances to talk about. Rain might come back in the forecast by early to mid next week, but too soon to tell.
Consistent Weather Thru The Week
The entire blog could really be summarized into: warm & dry. I could just leave it at that – but I won’t.
No measurable rainfall is expected over the next 7 days. Can’t totally rule out a quick sprinkle on Tuesday or Wednesday, but think those chances stay confined to the Plateau.
Dry & Warm on Repeat
No real rain chances in over the next 7 or so days.
Maybe a light shower on Tuesday or Wednesday from PTC #8, which could become Helene tomorrow. Mostly a rain-maker for the Carolinas.
Temps just slightly above average thru the week.
Lingering Showers Today, Dry Week Ahead
Bright side – we have avoided any severe weather or flooding issues.
Not-so-bright side – we haven’t received much rain to help with our drought situation.
Latest HRRR model (above) shows the main axis of rain staying to our SW most of the day, with a few showers coming up to our neck of the woods – especially around dinnertime. Models have not been the best the past few days, so be sure to keep an eye on the radar if you have any outdoor plans – you can always check the radar on our website here.
Local Flood and Isolated Tornado Threat Thru This Evening, Lingering Showers Possible This Weekend
Thus far rainfall totals have been extremely disappointing, but the threat is not quite over.
NWS Nashville has highlighted an area of concern for a local flood and isolated tornado risk which includes most of WillCo. This does not mean Nashville and Davidson Co. are in the clear, but the main area of focus will be inside the red circle.
Watching the Heavy Rain Potential and Low-End Tornado Threat
Rain from now Tropical Depression Francine is moving in and will increase in coverage throughout the day.
The latest HRRR model shows heavier rain later this afternoon, continuing into tonight.
Friday is where some uncertainty comes in.
Francine To Bring Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, Low-End Tornado Threat(?) Starting Thursday
Francine has made landfall in Louisiana, and is beginning to make its’ way up north and will bring impacts to us starting Thursday morning.
Expected rainfall totals thru Monday night look to be 3 to 5 inches.
Tuesday PM Update on Local Impacts from Francine: Heavy Rain & Low-End Threat of Tornadoes
There have been some minor changes to our expected local impacts from Francine. Changes to this forecast are very possible, be sure to check in for updates!
Francine is still expected to make landfall as a hurricane sometime Wednesday afternoon/evening along the coast of Louisiana and make its way up to our neck of the woods as a Tropical Depression.
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