This Weekend, We Bake

Current Radar

Tonight – Watching To See If/Where It’ll Rain 

This is the classic Nashville summertime pattern. Gets hot, it’s already humid, and downpours pop up afternoon, last into the early evening, then die off. This happened close to and just south of downtown, in Thompson’s Station/Franklin, and between Brentwood and Nolensville. None of them were little sprinklers, but they barely moved, and collapsed after a few hours. Where will they be today?

We don’t really know where, but they’ll be somewhere in Middle Tennessee.

The HRRR model thinks the showers will be several places tonight:

Notice it likes downtown. Heads up this afternoon/tonight at CMA Fest. A different model, the NAM4, thinks the rain will be stay east of us.

Some of these could turn into thunderstorms, but nothing severe is expected.

Friday – Chance of Rain A Little Higher – Wake Up: 72º, High: 92º

Little bit more humid for Friday. The heat index will hit 96°.

More rain/storm making energy to our south will arrive Friday and last through the weekend, so we think the odds are slightly better you’ll see rain or a “regular” thunderstorm Friday afternoon into the evening.

CMA Music Fest: Saturday (91°) & Sunday (92°)

Hot and humid.

Take an umbrella and/or rain jacket with you, and be sure to stick with us on Twitter. We’ll be watching the radar for pop up rain/storms. We may see some downpours or a few thunderstorms wander over downtown.

Drink lots of water.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Clearing Out

Current Radar

Overnight – Few Lingering Showers

Well, that was exciting. Lots of lightning, torrential rain, and big hail. This was from @AshleyCB84:

A Flash Flood Warning remains effective until 8 PM inside the green polygon:

The bad storms are gone; however, a few small showers currently to our NW may still work through tonight.

Tomorrow, we clear out.

Tuesday – Clearing Out – High 87°

Remnants of showers and thunderstorms may linger in the morning hours, but it should be gone well before then. The good news is there will be clearing with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon and evening.

And lower humidity.

Wednesday – Sunny & Hot – High 90°

It’ll be hot, but really not all that humid.

Thursday & Beyond: We Reintroduce Heat, Humidity, and Afternoon Rain/Storm Chances

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Today: Hottest Day Of The Year; Monday: PM Severe Storms Possible

Current Radar

Sunday – Hottest Day of the Year – High 93°

Dewpoints are also creeping toward the mid-60°s, so it’ll start getting humid, too.

Still no meaningful chance of rain during the day.

Tonight, we may see a shower squeeze out north of 40, but that looks unlikely. It’s just hard to completely rule out rain when temps go this high with this much moisture in the air.

Monday – Severe Weather Possible – High 89°

We will probably see some rain in the morning. The strong/severe storm concern will be late Monday afternoon and into Monday night.

The NAM4 model gives an ETA between 7 PM and 10 PM:

This ETA isn’t certain, but other models agree with it.

The Storm Prediction Center still has us in its Slight Risk for severe weather. Today, the SPC quantified the risk:

This does not appear to be a tornado event. It looks more like a damaging wind, small hail, lightning, frog-strangling typical June storm event.

After the big thunderstorms roll through, a steady, soaking rain is expected overnight and into Tuesday morning. In total, about 0.75″ or so.

Rest of the Week / CMA Fest: Your Typical Summertime Pattern

Hot, humid, and maybe an afternoon shower or storm.

What would CMA Fest be without heat and humidity? Because that’s what we are getting again this year.

NWS-Nashville wrote this morning that they expect a “moisture rich airmass” which will be full of instability and thunderstorm-making capability. As storms pop up in seemingly random places across the region each afternoon, “brief locally heavy rainfall with stronger showers and thunderstorms that form is certainly not out of the question… But no anticipation of any organized flooding potential [is expected] as of this time.” There will be days we may get a shower or storm, and other days we won’t. Just like every year.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80°s, but the humidity will be oppressive.

You’ll need sunscreen, water, rain-tolerant shoes, umbrella, a radar app (and follow us and @NWSNashville and your favorite local TV weather folks on Twitter), and a poncho. You may not need the rain gear every day, but the chance of rain each day is high enough that it’s a good idea to plan to bring it with you.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

A Great Summer Weekend; Stormy Monday; Stuff You Need for CMA Fest

Current Radar

Saturday Night – Gently Cooling Off 

We don’t think it will rain. Do not alter any outdoor plans. If you picked today as your wedding day, you’ve won the summertime forecast lottery. It’ll be hot, but that light north breeze will be nice.

And practice your toss.

Sunday – Still Not Expecting Rain – High 92°

Winds turn to start blowing from the south, but with unseasonably dry air, not much available rain/storm energy, and “small scale subsidence” (sinking air), it’ll be hard to get any rain.

Monday – Getting Stormy – High 91°

A surface trough aligned with the Mississippi River will create south winds in Middle Tennessee. Those winds will transport moist, humid air – the building blocks for rain and storms.

Winds and temperatures at upper levels of the atmosphere will promote upward vertical motion. That’ll help create the storms.

The shear needed to make storms intense (by slanting the updrafts) will be relatively weak.

The result: SPC has put us in its Slight Risk for severe weather:

Timing on the storms is pretty difficult to determine right now, but your best bet for rain and strong/severe storms is late Monday afternoon or early evening. We aren’t expecting tornadoes right now. This looks more like a damaging wind, hail, lightning, frog-strangling typical June storm event.

Rest of the Week / CMA Fest!

What would CMA Fest be without heat and humidity? Because that’s what we are getting again this year.

The weather pattern looks favorable for a “moisture rich and unstable air mass…especially as the weekend approaches.” In general, we expect persistent afternoon heat-of-the-day “scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday, at least lasting into the evening hours.” All quotes from NWS-Nashville.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80°s, but the humidity will be oppressive.

You’ll need sunscreen, water, rain-tolerant shoes, umbrella, a radar app (and follow us and @NWSNashville and your favorite local TV weather folks on Twitter), and a poncho. You may not need the rain gear every day, but the chance of rain each day is high enough that it’s a good idea to plan to bring it with you.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Flood Concerns

Current Radar

Tonight – Flooding Concerns

We’ve seen a LOT of rain. I thought we would shake it. We haven’t.

Through 7:30 PM

An Areal Flood Warning, although recently cancelled for Davidson Co, is effective for Williamson County until 10:15 PM.

And there is more rain coming tonight.

I think we will see a brief break in the rain, followed by more rain through the middle of the night.

If you’re unsure whether the road ahead is water covered, it’s not worth it.

Monday – Trying to Clear Out – High 79°

It’s going to take some time to finally kick the upper-level low pressure center east of us. On its way out, it will probably spread some light rain, off and on, throughout the day.

Winds will shift and start blowing out of the north, but it’s not going to get that much drier or that much cooler.

Rest of the Week – Slow Transition Back to Early Summer – Highs Climbing Up the 80°s

There is at least a slight chance of rain every day this week. As dewpoints gradually climb out of the low 60°s into the mid/upper 60°s by the end of the week, our rain chances will increase right along with it.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

One More Day Of This Junk

Current Radar

Tonight and Sunday – Rain/Storms Hanging Around – High 82°

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the overnight hours tonight into Sunday morning. The potential for severe thunderstorms (damaging winds, not hail or a tornado) will continue during this time, but it’s rather unimpressive. Without some sun-fueled heating, they’ll struggle to mature.

Here’s the NAM4 model’s take on the morning rain:

After that clears out, the NAM4 thinks we’ll have a mostly dry afternoon. But then, Sunday night, this happens:

The Euro and GFS models paint a little rainier picture during the day. Because of that, it’s hard to believe the NAM4, above. I’ll be interested to see the HRRR get in range, and see what it says.

It could be yet another off and on, wet and rainy day.

Monday – The Pattern Breaks! – High 75°

Much drier air will finally blow in.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dodgeball

It’s dodgeball time!

Tonight – Maybe Some Showers and Weak Thunderstorms 

It may rain today and through the weekend. In fact, we think it will rain, but when and where, we don’t really know. Tonight and tomorrow’s weather is without an obvious focal point to initiate showers and storms, hence the uncertainty. If you want meaningless quantification and LOL ETAs, please consult a wide array of crap apps. We would rather embrace uncertainty with honesty, than guess and hope we hit the lottery so you think we are super geniuses).

Will it rain on you tonight? Just follow the current radar:

We think most of the shower activity here will fade with the daylight. This afternoon’s rain has been following an axis along the west borders of both counties, but that may be sliding closer to I-65. Hit up @NashSevereWx on Twitter for more.

Happy shower dodging!

Saturday – Afternoon/Evening Showers and Thunderstorms Possible – High 84°

A cold front is expected to push a line of showers and thunderstorms across Arkansas, in our general direction. But, as it enters Tennessee, it breaks apart. Short range models aren’t raining on us in the morning.

In fact, the models aren’t really sending us a lot of rain during the afternoon, either. It’s all hit or miss. SPC has outlooked us for a 5% chance of severe weather inside any storms we get, but that’s all pretty meh.

I’m cautiously optimistic about outdoorsy stuff. Our NWS says we’ll be dodging storms. Looks unlikely we’ll get a total washout, but no promises. Promises tomorrow are dispensed by liars.

Sunday – Showers and Thunderstorms Bit More Likely – High 79°

A cold front will be in our area by Sunday night. This will increase our chance of rain Sunday afternoon and evening.

The best chance for severe weather would be Sunday afternoon as daytime heating, an upper level trough, and surface frontal boundary could help intensify storms. Even then, it’s a really low chance for the bad stuff. No real worries.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Brief Review of Today’s Severe Thunderstorm; Rainy/Stormy Pattern Continues

Current Temps and Radar

Tonight – Things Settle Down

So, we had a severe thunderstorm today. Here’s the polygon with the radar turned off so you can see the blobby stuff, which is where we think all the hail fell:

Here’s what it looked like from downtown:

Clarence Bennett @tvs7 took this photo:

This hail fell in Green Hills, via @NashSnowdome:

North of us, near the Hendersonville/Gallatin line, this trampoline got tossed, via @MishogaWear:

Those storms sucked all the good storm making dynamics from the atmosphere. Some light rain will continue to trek across Middle Tennessee tonight, dying slowly with the daylight.

Thursday – Scattered Clouds and Maybe More Afternoon Pop-up Showers – High: 85° 

We think it’ll be pretty foggy in the morning.

We should stay dry in the morning, capped by a temp inversion aloft. But, yet again, we think the cap may erode around 1 PM and lift the lid on any rain and storms. Not expecting the show we got today, but the potential for pop-up shenanigans remains. Where? Yeah, we don’t really know. Models don’t look too wet, so maybe we won’t get rained out.

I feel better about being outside Thursday night than I do Friday night.

Friday – Showers Likely in the Afternoon – High: 86°

More afternoon showers and storms. Models suggest more energy and more oomph will be around Friday.

Extended: Still Humid With Maybe-Stormy Afternoons

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain is Gone (for today); Heat and Humidity Stay

Current Temps and Radar

Tonight – Rain Gone, Still Humid 

After a lot of rain early this afternoon (officially 0.63″ at the airport), we should be relatively dry tonight. “Little if any [rain] redevelopment is expected,” says our NWS.

But it’s still humid.

Dewpoints are now 70°, and should settle back into the mid to upper 60°s tomorrow and the rest of the week. Bad news for hair-dos.

Wednesday – Afternoon Pop-Up Showers Possible – High 87°

We’re finally getting into that summertime pattern: muggy but not-raining in the morning, gets hotter in the afternoon, few showers or thunderstorms pop up in random places and occasionally misbehave, then die out. Most of us stay dry, but the popped-up-on places get soaked.

However, for Wednesday and Thursday, relatively drier air will be in place. The chance of you getting a rainer is still there, but it’ll be nothing like what we saw today.

This pattern will continue for the rest of the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain, With Severe Weather Possible, Today

Tuesday – Rain & Possibly-Severe Thunderstorms – High 81°

Another round of extensive showers and storms will spread eastward out of the Plains into Middle Tennessee. Because weather models differ significantly on the timing of the rain/storms, there is a lot of uncertainty on how strong the storms will be.

The Storm Prediction Center still has us in its “Slight” category for severe weather:

day1otlk_20150526_1300_prt

 

The Storm Prediction Center says we have a 2% chance of a Tornado occurring within 25 miles of us

day1probotlk_20150526_1300_torn_prt:

 

NWS has said about today – “Isolated marginally severe thunderstorm possible this afternoon”.

 

Follow @nashseverewx on twitter for latest updates. We’ll post changes to SPC outlooks here, and on twitter.

 

Wednesday – Scattered Showers – High 85°

The pattern remains pretty much the same: scattered, hit or miss showers. Can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but we do not expect anything severe.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.