Better Fireworks Weather Tonight

Current Radar

Tonight – Pretty Nice

For tonight’s Fourth of July 2.0, the weather will be much better. Those Fine Americans who braved the rain in Nashville for fireworks last night had to contend with low clouds which made the show look like a Grateful Dead concert. Clouds were forming at 356 meters, which is under 1,200 feet. Not good fireworks weather.

We aren’t expecting a repeat of that tonight. LCL heights (see below if you don’t believe me) will be almost 4 times higher at 9 PM, 1,231 meters, which is over 4,000 feet.

That’s better fireworks weather. We aren’t expecting rain, either. A great way to celebrate our Women’s World Cup win over Japan.

Monday & Tuesday – Humidity Returns! – High 87° (Mon) 88° (Tue)

No reason to separate these two forecast days. The dewpoint will pass 70°, frizzing all hair.

I can only speculate that she’s talking the dewpoint. She may be talking about Ben. Not sure.

With this much moisture in the air, a few randomly appearing showers and storms are possible.

Storms Monday aren’t expected to be severe, but for Tuesday, the SPC outlook is pretty close to us.

We’ll keep an eye on it.

Mid-Week:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Fireworks? Ruh Roh

Current Radar

630 PM Update: A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Williamson County. If you’re in the green box, my advice is to stay home.

This Afternoon and Tonight – Looks Rainy

The stationary front remains north of us. Rain and storms have been firing off it as it feeds off the humid air mass overhead.

Remember the heavy rainer at 2 PM downtown? See the purple-circled area below:

It rained so hard, it transported rain cooled air along the surface, which spread south along the purple arrows. This “outflow boundary” has been the focus of rain and thunderstorms in Williamson Co as I write this at 5:30 PM:

Meanwhile, the black arrows show the approach of rain from the south and southwest, being shoved along by a low-pressure circulation moving east from the Memphis area:

Stop Being a Weather Nerd. What About Fireworks?

The HRRR thinks it will be steadily raining at 9 PM.

Just to look at it, I think it’s overdoing the amount of precip we will see. When I look up at the radar at 5:28 PM, it’s just not so wet that I think it’ll be this wet at 9 PM.

But, even the NAM4 model is in on the rainy idea. It thinks it’ll be very rainy at 9 PM.

Well then.

My gut — which is not scientific — thinks these models are showing it being rainier than it will be, but I don’t think it’ll be dry tonight. The further south you go from Nashville, the wetter I think you’ll be.

My recommendations about fireworks tonight.

1.  Go. It’s reasonable to stay home, but if you like fireworks and crowds, just go. So you get wet. Big deal.

2.  No severe weather is expected.

3.  Have a rain jacket in your car. And wear sensible shoes.

4.  Because America.

USA!

(your computer/phone isn’t broken, the gif is supposed to do that)

Because we’re approaching the target forecast hour (9 PM), this will be the last post of the night. We will post updated radar shots and more info to @NashSevereWx tonight.

If the forecast busts, remember:

Sunday – Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Remains – High: 84°

The weather pattern shifts back to normal, with a pop-uppy chance of showers and storms into next week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Fireworks Update!

Current Radar

This Afternoon and Tonight – Looks Rainy

A stationary front has set up just north of us. Rain and storms are firing off it as it feeds off the humid airmass overhead:

Expect scattered showers — some heavy at times — to move east this afternoon.

What About Fireworks?

Ummm.

We have the issue with the stationary front described above.

The other — more concerning — issue is the mid-level disturbance to our southwest.

This guy:

This thing is modeled to move along and south of I-40, right into Middle Tennessee tonight.

The HRRR shows it moving like this:

To be more specific, at 9 PM the HRRR thinks it’ll be right here:

If we are taking this model literally, which you should never do, but to be ridiculous let’s do it: this means Nashville and the 300,000 people watching the fireworks show will be dry, everyone south will not.

Do not take it literally.

As I wrote this morning: the weather models don’t have the answers. They tell us there is a decent chance of rain, but we can’t say for sure if it’ll be raining for fireworks tonight.

My recommendations about fireworks tonight.

1.  Go.

2.  So it rains. So what? It’s the Fourth. Fireworks are awesome.

3.  No severe weather is expected.

4.  Have a rain jacket in your car. And wear sensible shoes.

5.  Because America.

USA!

(your computer/phone isn’t broken, the gif is supposed to do that)

We will post updated HRRR model runs and radar updates to @NashSevereWx throughout the day.

If the forecast busts, remember:

Sunday – Lower Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms – High: 82°

The weather pattern shifts back to normal, with a pop-uppy chance of showers and storms into next week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Should You Plan To See Fireworks Tonight? I Think So.

Current Radar

Today – Watching For Rain – High 81°

The main rain band has set up well south of us:

I drew white squiggly lines on the above image to show little ripples/waves in the clouds, extending all the way back to Oklahoma. A few small showers were forming along that route this morning.

The HRRR model thinks rain will form along I-40 all day. It’ll be a cloudy day full of off and on showers; however, it won’t be a total washout. Only 0.18″ of rain is forecast.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM tonight.

What about 9 PM?

The last three runs of the NAM4 model have put heavy rain south (in Franklin), north (in Springfield), and north (in Hendersonville) exactly at 9 PM. In each run, that shower had either come from, or was going to, downtown Nashville.

The last two runs of the HRRR keep the 9 PM rain south of both counties. The third does not have it going north of Franklin.

I say that all to say this: the weather models don’t have the answers. They tell us there is a decent chance of rain, but we can’t say for sure if it’ll be raining for fireworks tonight.

My recommendations about fireworks tonight.

1.  Go.

2.  So it rains. So what? It’s the Fourth. Fireworks are awesome.

3.  No severe weather is expected.

4.  Have a rain jacket in your car.

5.  Because America.

We will post updated HRRR model runs and radar updates to @NashSevereWx throughout the day.

Sunday – Lower Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms – High: 82°

The weather pattern shifts back to normal, with a pop-uppy chance of showers and storms into next week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain On The Fourth?

Current Radar

Overnight – Maybe A Few Showers After Midnight

Showers and storms over Kentucky tonight have weakened. We will remain comfortably south of all that, with only our new, home grown, light showers to contend with beginning sometime around midnight (maybe a bit before then for Williamson County).

The Fourth – Watching For Rain – High 81°

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM Saturday.

Our skies remain full of precipitable water, which will translate to rain as shortwaves ripple through Middle Tennessee on Saturday.  The question is: when will they ripple?

Weather models aren’t that much help in telling us when, and where. Generally, most (but not all) of the day looks dry, with only a few passing showers.

Then, rain activity increases as you get closer to:

The NAM4 model puts us in a rain sandwich at fireworks time, almost miraculously keeping us dry.

You don’t want to be between those two rain bands.

The GFS and Euro models keep all that rain about 80 miles south of what’s shown above in the NAM4. Either way, we have a decent shot of rain.

I’ll feel better about the forecast in the morning, when the HRRR will come into range. Maybe those model runs will help us build a consensus. I’ll be up tweeting, and I’ll update this site.

Notice the un-July temps. Only 81°! All in all, a cloudy, occasionally rainy day, with some potential to be wet for fireworks.

No severe weather is expected.

Sunday – A Slightly Lower Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms – High: 85°

The rain-shenanigan-maker shifts a bit east. We’ll still probably see some rain, but not that much.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

I-24 Storms Tonight, More Rain/Storms This Week

Current Radar

Tonight – Thunderstorms

The I-24 Storms are coming from the NW. See the above radar and follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for more info. These have strong, and maybe severe, potential.

The Storm Prediction Center still has our probability of a hail or a damaging wind event within 25 miles of us at 5%. We are excluded from their tornado outlook.

Tuesday – More Waves, More Rain Chances – High 87°

This week we expect a series of shortwaves, or impulses, or whatever you want to call them, ripple through the atmosphere, setting off rain and storm chances.  You want to know when, where, and how much, right?

Pinpointing when/were/size is almost impossible: the variance in each model is wide. NWS-Nashville wrote this morning that “the timing and strength of these upper-level impulses will deviate from day to day.” It’s nothing like the predictable, repetitive wave image above.

With temps and dew points climbing, rain is a good bet at some point Tuesday, probably in the afternoon or early evening. I could post model data here, but the variance is so wide that it’s not worth your time.

Wednesday – Better Rain Chance – High 82°

The best chance for rain this week is Wednesday night into Thursday. However, models are showing rain mid-day as well. Temps forecast in the low 80°s reflects belief in cloud cover and rain.

Be prepared for rain and maybe a thunderstorm or two Wednesday.

Mid-Week: Wet & Stormy Pattern Continues

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

I Think You Can Handle The Truth

Current Radar

Today – Humidity, Rain & Storm Chances Return – High 87°

Showers and maybe a few storms may swing through this afternoon. The HRRR model sure thinks so:

I chose this wide view because it shows this week’s “source” of rain/storm activity: the northwest.

A few of today’s storms could be strong, or even marginally severe.

The Storm Prediction Center puts the probability of a hail or damaging wind event within 25 miles of us at 5%. We are excluded from their tornado outlook.

Tonight, another wave of upper level energy will arrive, delivering more rain and storm chances.

Tuesday – More Waves, More Rain Chances – High 88°

This week we expect a series of shortwaves, or impulses, or whatever you want to call them, ripple through the atmosphere, setting off rain and storm chances.  You want to know when, where, and how much, right?

Pinpointing when/were/size is almost impossible: the variance in each model is wide. NWS-Nashville wrote this morning that “the timing and strength of these upper-level impulses will deviate from day to day.” It’s nothing like the predictable, repetitive wave image above.

With temps and dew points climbing, rain is a good bet at some point Tuesday, probably in the afternoon or early evening. I could post model data here, but the variance is so wide that it’s not worth your time.

Wednesday – Better Rain Chance – High 86°

The best chance for rain this week is Wednesday night into Thursday. However, models are showing rain mid-day as well.

Just be prepared for rain and maybe a thunderstorm or two Wednesday.

Mid-Week: Wet & Stormy Pattern Continues

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Wet, Stormy Week Ahead

Current Radar

Tonight, We Sleep in Peace

Monday – Humidity, Rain & Storm Chances Return – High 87°

Reopening Monday, the I-24 Storm Corridor, where rain and storms get here by moving from NW-to-SE.

The first of a series of shortwaves this week is already ongoing as I write this in Missouri.

HRRR has it cruising the I-24 overnight, weakening, arriving and dropping rain on us in the morning. Here it is through 7 AM:

A second shortwave is expected around dark. ETA is fuzzy. The NAM4 has it at 6 PM:

The Storm Prediction Center still has us in their “Marginal” risk of severe thunderstorms. On a scale of 0 (squadoosh) to 5 (move to Mars), this is a “1.”

So, not that big a deal, but something to keep an eye on.

Tuesday – Better Chance of Rain & Storms – High 86°

A third shortwave will swing down 24 in the afternoon. The best ETA is in the late afternoon, early evening, but the timing on that remains iffy.

Some of the storms could be strong or severe. We remain only outlooked in a “Marginal” risk by the Storm Prediction Center.

Mid-Week: Rain & Storm Chances Increase

Storms Wednesday and Thursday have severe potential if it arrives at the right time of day. However, the better probability is a heavy rain event.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Tomorrow, The I-24 Storm Corridor Reopens

Current Radar

Today – Low Humidity, Sunny, No Rain – High 82°

Yesterday’s cold front scoured away all the humidity.

Monday – Rain & Storm Chances Return – High 85°

Tomorrow, God reopens the I-24 Storm Corridor, the traditional path of NW-to-SE moving summertime showers and storms.

The first of a series of shortwaves this week will develop to our NW late Sunday night, delivering us a rain mechanism Monday.

Meanwhile, Sunday’s wonderful north wind will turn into a south wind, and return humid, storm-making dewpoints.

This should swing some storms down I-24:

The Storm Prediction Center has us in their “Marginal” risk of severe thunderstorms. On a scale of 0 (squadoosh) to 5 (move to Mars), this is a “1.”

So, not that big a deal, but something to keep an eye on. SPC sees storm potential in this setup. The wrote this morning they may consider upgrading this to a “2” (Slight Risk). A review of forecast soundings shows plenty of storm-able energy in place, but relatively low instability and weak shear.

We’ll update this here tonight and on Twitter all day @NashSevereWx.

Tuesday – Better Chance of Rain & Storms – High 85°

The second shortwave will swing down 24 in the afternoon. The best ETA is in the late afternoon, early evening, but the timing on that is a bit fuzzy.

Mid-Week: Rain & Storm Chances Remain

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Beautiful Sunday, Rain Chances Return Monday

Current Radar

Tonight – Perfect Baseball Weather – 69° by 10 PM

The cold front arrived around noon.

Cooler, clearer, and drier air will filter in behind it tonight. No chance of rain.

A great night to go see the Sounds.

Sunday – Sunny, Lower Humidity, No Rain – High 82°

Maybe some fog early; otherwise, glorious.

Monday – More Humidity Means Rain Chances Return – High 84°

The humidity will rise again, but at least it’ll only be in the mid 80°s

Mid-Week: Little Wetter Than Normal

We will be looking to our NW for rain and storm development. These I-24 Specials could drop a few inches of rain on us this week. When and where varies so wildly on the models, it’s not really even worth speculating.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.