This morning, the HRRR model predicted this afternoon’s showers and thunderstorm, which poked through high pressure like a hernia through a tummy.

If you were north of the 24/65 split, near Skyline and Madison and Goodlettsville, you could not ignore it. It tossed lightning and prompted NWS-Nashville to issue an Areal Flood Advisory and a Significant Weather Advisory. read more

Last week’s cool snap is a memory.

High pressure is parked over the entire southeast. Weather nerds call this a “ridge,” a large clockwise rotating airmass that’s pushing down on us, trying to keep clouds from lifting and making it rain or storm. Behold the ridge at 18,000 feet (seen below). read more

If I could summarize Wednesday to Sunday in one GIF, it’s this one:

But first, details on rain and storm potential Monday morning, Monday night, and early Tuesday morning.

Monday – Early Tuesday

Two waves of storms are expected tomorrow. The second wave — arriving Monday night — may pack a punch. Below ETAs will need adjustment as models run and the rain shows itself on radar. Use models for guidance, not Gospel. read more

Early this morning it’s raining in Alabama and Mississippi. Just fog in usual spots for us. That fog should mix out by mid-morning. Enough cloud cover should keep temps under 90°.

Humidity remains oppressive with dewpoints around the low 70°s. Heat index will max out around 95°. read more

Dry air arrived early this morning, and settled in this afternoon:

Colors indicate cold clouds tops (rain and storms). Grey is dry and clear.

Early Morning Fog Again

The temp and dew point temps will be close together, so watch out for fog in usual spots near bodies of water. read more

This morning, a frontal boundary parked south of us. We’re on the northern, dry side of it. Behold mid-level infrared satellite images this morning. The coral, orangy stuff is the drier air. Green is the rainy air. read more

I found my contact. It fell on the floor. I washed it then located my glasses.

That mid-afternoon thunderstorm did this:

Lighting strike in Wedgewood Houston pic.twitter.com/I6ZRoLoXPC

— Kyle Yates (@kyledyates) August 5, 2018 read more

I’m writing via Chromebook in an Atlanta hotel. Not optimal. I’ll be light on graphics this morning.

Today’s dewpoint will climb close to 70. That’s near-oppressive humidity.

Today’s high is 93. Add that to a more humid airmass and you get a heat index up to 97 this afternoon. read more

At noon, satellite showed a weak weather system brewing to our west.

It’s moving this way.

Rain is likely later today and tonight. Showers will be hit or miss. Expect unequal distributions of rain in both our counties, and in Middle Tennessee as a whole. read more

Sunday will be fantastic. Low 60° dewpoints mean another day of low-for-summer humidity. The temperature will cooperate (High 90°).

Rain & Higher Humidity Return Monday

Rain Monday and Tuesday is coming from the Plains.

Timing

That’s ^^^^ the HRRR model running through midnight tonight. Today’s storms in Oklahoma and Nebraska will shift east and weaken, but  a few showers may survive the journey so don’t be surprised if you wake up to wet pavement. read more