Today is turning out “Sweaty not Wetty.” High pressure defeated any effort to sprout storms. A few defiant cells may sprout over the next few hours. We’ll tweet them @NashSevereWx (and here) if they do.
The Storm Prediction Center does not think we will see Labor Day thunderstorms:
The Weather Prediction Center forecasts for us no Labor Day rain:
NWS-Nashville agrees, figuring only a 10% probability of precipitation (black arrow) and betting no rain will actually hit the pavement (red arrow):
This morning, the HRRR model predicted this afternoon’s showers and thunderstorm, which poked through high pressure like a hernia through a tummy.
If you were north of the 24/65 split, near Skyline and Madison and Goodlettsville, you could not ignore it. It tossed lightning and prompted NWS-Nashville to issue an Areal Flood Advisory and a Significant Weather Advisory.
If I could summarize Wednesday to Sunday in one GIF, it’s this one:
But first, details on rain and storm potential Monday morning, Monday night, and early Tuesday morning.
Two waves of storms are expected tomorrow. The second wave — arriving Monday night — may pack a punch. Below ETAs will need adjustment as models run and the rain shows itself on radar. Use models for guidance, not Gospel.
