Rain has departed. We got between 0.5″ and 1″, depending on your location.
Up next: cooler temps! Lower humidity!
Cooler air is on the way, as seen here Sunday at 4 PM:
Clouds are expected Monday. They’ll be slow to clear out. But check out the cool temps!
A cold front will move east across Middle Tennessee today, bringing rain and awesome temps with it.
Rain is already underway this morning at 7:28 AM.
Rain should be off and on. Expect heavier rain at times, especially this morning.
Today is turning out “Sweaty not Wetty.” High pressure defeated any effort to sprout storms. A few defiant cells may sprout over the next few hours. We’ll tweet them @NashSevereWx (and here) if they do.
It’s hot today but not sure it’s a “scorcher.”
We wrote “Sweaty Not Wetty” last night only to wake up this morning to HRRR model runs popping off isolated late afternoon/early evening downpours and thunderstorms:
The Storm Prediction Center does not think we will see Labor Day thunderstorms:
The Weather Prediction Center forecasts for us no Labor Day rain:
NWS-Nashville agrees, figuring only a 10% probability of precipitation (black arrow) and betting no rain will actually hit the pavement (red arrow):
It’s possible an isolated shower or storm will pop up this afternoon. The HRRR model thinks so:
As usual for summer, shower/storm locations are unknown. Buy a lottery ticket and hope for the best.
This morning, the HRRR model predicted this afternoon’s showers and thunderstorm, which poked through high pressure like a hernia through a tummy.
If you were north of the 24/65 split, near Skyline and Madison and Goodlettsville, you could not ignore it. It tossed lightning and prompted NWS-Nashville to issue an Areal Flood Advisory and a Significant Weather Advisory.
Last week’s cool snap is a memory.
High pressure is parked over the entire southeast. Weather nerds call this a “ridge,” a large clockwise rotating airmass that’s pushing down on us, trying to keep clouds from lifting and making it rain or storm. Behold the ridge at 18,000 feet (seen below).
If I could summarize Wednesday to Sunday in one GIF, it’s this one:
But first, details on rain and storm potential Monday morning, Monday night, and early Tuesday morning.
Two waves of storms are expected tomorrow. The second wave — arriving Monday night — may pack a punch. Below ETAs will need adjustment as models run and the rain shows itself on radar. Use models for guidance, not Gospel.
Early this morning it’s raining in Alabama and Mississippi. Just fog in usual spots for us. That fog should mix out by mid-morning. Enough cloud cover should keep temps under 90°.
Humidity remains oppressive with dewpoints around the low 70°s. Heat index will max out around 95°.
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