Today is turning out “Sweaty not Wetty.” High pressure defeated any effort to sprout storms. A few defiant cells may sprout over the next few hours. We’ll tweet them @NashSevereWx (and here) if they do.
Like today, hot and humid, heat index up to 96°, with only a tiny chance of rain.
Wednesday – Friday: Watching Gordon
Gordon is currently a tropical storm in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
It is forecast to briefly become a Cat 1 hurricane just before it landfalls in the wee hours of Wednesday morning at the mouth of the Pearl River (which divides Mississippi from Louisiana).
It will weaken after landfall, delivering rain wherever it goes.
The question is where will it go after it makes landfall?
Right now we think far enough west so it won’t deliver impacts here.
Bottom Line on Gordon:
1. The center of what will remain of Gordon is not hitting us. Even if it did, by the time it gets this far inland, it will be a “former tropical storm” (or former hurricane) and have some nerdy meteorological title like “tropical depression” or just “remnant low.”
2. If Gordon keeps moving toward Oklahoma after landfall as expected, it’ll bring us either less rain or none at all. If it moves more north and east and stays in Arkansas, our off and on shower chances increase.
The below map shows rain today through Saturday morning — it’s way west of us:
3. Crap apps hedge their bets on Gordon’s track, going with “chance” probabilities of precip around 30% or so.
Even without Gordon, our humidity will be near oppressive, high temps in the low 90°s, where it will be possible to squeeze out normal afternoon/evening showers or storms.
Expect scattered afternoon thunderstorms Saturday. Probably not a ball sports washout, but man it’s going to be hot and humid all weekend.
Models are in rough agreement Sunday. Rain chances look pretty good, but there are no meaningful details beyond that. Here’s what NWS-Nashville wrote about Sunday:
Timing is a little off between the models, but upper level wind solutions are pretty similar this far out. This would make next Sunday wet across the mid state, so have the highest probabilities of precipitation in the long term during the daytime Sunday. The front could stall over the region, which would become stationary, and keep precip chances into the work week next week.
When’s It Gonna Cool Off?
It’s still summer for Three. More. Weeks. I join the summer fatigued but let’s all take a deep breath and let summer be summer until it’s supposed be over on September 22.
A look at the 3-4 week forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is not encouraging. It’s more likely than not we will see “slightly above normal” late September temps.
Hurry up, October!