Windy today. High 62°.
Yesterday afternoon, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for tonight/early Tuesday morning. Winter Weather Advisories require snowfall of at least 1″.
Last night, most models trended toward less snow. NAM3, HRRR, even the GFS joined the “less snow” trend advertised by the Euro model all weekend.
It’ll be almost 60° Monday afternoon. Windy.
Monday night, warm southwest winds will turn west, then northwest, blowing in arctic air.
And with that, precip. More about this below.
Monday night after midnight, temps will nosedive below freezing, falling to 22° around sunrise. Anything wet will freeze in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
Pretty great today (high 49°) and Monday (high 58°!).
Rest of the week, not so much.
Tuesday’s snow potential + exceptionally cold temps prompted NWS-Nashville to issue this Special Weather Statement for all of Middle Tennessee:
You’re here to read about Tuesday so let’s speed through the weekend. (All quotes from NWS-Nashville).
BNA reported 36° after lunch. We won’t get much/any warmer today.
Back below freezing tonight and overnight with wind chills in the 20°s.
No snow tonight.
The precip moved east, faster than all models thought.
Foiled again by cold air chasing the precip.
At 7:25 PM, BNA reported 43°. At 8:05 PM, it’s 39°. And falling.
Rainwater continues running off the roads. Runoff means less water to freeze.
Clouds are arriving. Rain is coming Wednesday, and it may turn to snow Wednesday night.
Alert! Editor’s Rant. This isn’t about you most of you. Warning: what you’re about to skip over read is indulgent and arguably therapeutic (for me). If you came here for No Rants, Just Weather, I respect that, skip the blue words.
Winds dried wet roads last night. Throughout last night’s dusting, winds blew between 13-17 MPH, gusts 25 to 35 MPH.
Some Middle Tennesseans saw snow. Clarksville’s emergency manager reported 1.2″. Sumner County CoCoRahs observer near Portland logged 1.0″. Same for Greenbrier in Robertson County.
In 48 hours a heavy rain event may turn to snow, possibly cause a flash freeze, and I can’t stop myself from doing this special forecast.
There was inspiration.
I went to the gym tonight. Got home – TMI Alert!!! – got in the shower, water was warm, then suddenly all the hot water ran out but I was still sudsy and had to suffer shivering through the cold water, which I flipped off then on, then got out of there. Fast.
I don’t know if it’s going to snow this winter. Or if it does, when it will. Or how much we will get.
(Neither does your 10-45 day forecast on some weather apps, by the way. For more on that see these football analogy tweets, or just keep reading).
A very light shower is possible today, but probably not. More likely mostly cloudy, temps in the upper 40°s. Those high temps are normal for January 13.
HRRR model illustrates showers wandering across Middle Tennessee:
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