Dry first half of the week. Warmer each day.
May see frosty-freezy temps early Tuesday morning in low-lying spots.
No rain until late Thursday night.
Rain expected as early as late Thursday night but is most likely during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Expect about a half-inch of rain. Should depart before lunch, if not sooner.
Severe thunderstorms formed a line from St. Louis to Dallas as shown below on radar at 6:58 PM.
This activity is moving our way.
“Severe” means 58+ MPH winds, one-inch hail, or tornado. None of that is happening when these storms arrive. The system will nerf on its way east, giving us rain and a few thunderstorms. (The reason has nothing to do with the Mississippi River, the Tennessee River, or whatever old wives tale grandma believed. The reason: dry air locally, insufficient instability, and weakening low pressure).
Last night’s forecast was “no rain until Thursday!”
Uhhhh. Then this morning happened.
Light rain this morning surprised me. Rain was supposed to pass completely south of us. Most of it did. But we still got some this morning. At 5:56 AM NWS-Nashville noted approaching rain in West Tennessee was not reaching the ground thanks to a low level Dry Air Monster.
Dry days ahead!
Pretty warm, too.
Rain and storms may start late Wednesday night/wee hours Thursday morning.
South winds will be strong. The Euro model thinks winds will gust over 40 MPH. Storm strength will depend on instability and dewpoint levels. No two storm events are the same, but this looks pretty similar to what we saw yesterday/Saturday — plenty of wind energy, questionable instability. As usual, considerable uncertainty, especially this far away.
