May 20.
A horrible anniversary.
Six years ago on May 20 an EF5 tornado hit Moore OK, near OKC. Seven kids were killed at Plaza Tower Elementary School. In all, this tornado caused about 25 fatalities, depending on how you count them (“direct vs indirect” casualties). Over 1,000 homes destroyed. Flattened.
Waves of rain coming.
The first isn’t much of a wave. A cold front will cross Friday morning. It’ll bring a few light showers. No appreciable rainfall expected. So let’s not count that one.
8 AM UPDATE
Looks like a rain + wind event. A few storms possible, main concerns lightning and strong winds.
Tornado: we are removed from risk area. Insufficient instability the reason. Previous outlook said 2%.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with the main threat being damaging winds. Hail and a few brief tornadoes are possible as well, but chances are low. Localized flash flooding will also be possible for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain today.
Rain ETA as early as Wednesday night, but bet on a Thursday rain ETA. Right now outdoor events Wednesday night look safe.
Very little good high res data available between hours 60 and 90, which is how many hours we are from this event. Thankful for Euro model 90 hour data which suggests rain arriving sometime middle of the day Thursday and lasting Thursday night into the overnight hours. But one run of one model is no way to plan life, so expect updates/changes/refinements to this prophesy.
Big storm system churning through Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi today will be here tonight.
Local worry level: low.
Before storms, gusts to 40 MPH possible. Blowing in from the south, crossing perpendicular to east-west highways (I-40, I-840, and I-440*), so be especially careful driving big trucks. Don’t get blown out your lane.
Severe weather stayed south of us early this morning. Great news.
Another round of showers is possible late morning/early afternoon but storms are unlikely. Very little additional rain is forecast.
Thus the two rounds of storm potential was just that, potential, thankfully.
Weather models are lighting up with storms overnight tonight through Sunday. Timing, and how bad they may be, ↓↓↓↓.
Timing and model runs vary. No real ETAs or time-specific details available. Rain and storms will come in irregular waves.
Dry first half of the week. Warmer each day.
May see frosty-freezy temps early Tuesday morning in low-lying spots.
No rain until late Thursday night.
Rain expected as early as late Thursday night but is most likely during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Expect about a half-inch of rain. Should depart before lunch, if not sooner.
Severe thunderstorms formed a line from St. Louis to Dallas as shown below on radar at 6:58 PM.
This activity is moving our way.
“Severe” means 58+ MPH winds, one-inch hail, or tornado. None of that is happening when these storms arrive. The system will nerf on its way east, giving us rain and a few thunderstorms. (The reason has nothing to do with the Mississippi River, the Tennessee River, or whatever old wives tale grandma believed. The reason: dry air locally, insufficient instability, and weakening low pressure).
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