YESTERDAY’S FLASH FLOOD

Yesterday’s storms did not move.

“No movement” storms are common in the summer. Mid and upper level winds that move storms have gone north.

So the storm’s entire life — and all its rain — gets one spot. read more

RETURN TO NORMAL

June returns Tuesday.

Humidity increases – although still pretty comfy – but the high climbs to 90°.

TUESDAY RAIN?

A few earlier model runs had light rain trying to sneak in here Tuesday afternoon.

Like this one: read more

BEST NEWS

Less humidity Friday. High only 83°!

TONIGHT’S BOURBON LOW

Today and tonight, low pressure will be spinning over the Bourbon trail.

Because winds spin counterclockwise around a low, showers developed by the low should rotate into Middle Tennessee, including us (Nashville and Will Co) later this afternoon or tonight. read more

WHERE ARE OUR INTERNS?

They’re adjusting to their summer schedules and I’m filling in the cracks.

Our interns are not at home playing Fortnite all summer. They have paying jobs! A work ethic. There is hope for this generation, gramps. It’s not all smartphones and side-eyes. read more

PRETTY QUIET HERE

MEANWHILE, MONDAY IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS

May 20.

A horrible anniversary.

Six years ago on May 20 an EF5 tornado hit Moore OK, near OKC. Seven kids were killed at Plaza Tower Elementary School. In all, this tornado caused about 25 fatalities, depending on how you count them (“direct vs indirect” casualties). Over 1,000 homes destroyed. Flattened. read more

Waves of rain coming.

FRIDAY

The first isn’t much of a wave. A cold front will cross Friday morning. It’ll bring a few light showers. No appreciable rainfall expected. So let’s not count that one. read more

8 AM UPDATE

Looks like a rain + wind event. A few storms possible, main concerns lightning and strong winds.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER PROBABILITIES OF X WITHIN 25 MILES, 8 AM Update

Tornado: we are removed from risk area. Insufficient instability the reason. Previous outlook said 2%. read more

NWS-NASHVILLE OVERVIEW

Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with the main threat being damaging winds. Hail and a few brief tornadoes are possible as well, but chances are low. Localized flash flooding will also be possible for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain today. read more

Rain ETA as early as Wednesday night, but bet on a Thursday rain ETA. Right now outdoor events Wednesday night look safe.

Very little good high res data available between hours 60 and 90, which is how many hours we are from this event. Thankful for Euro model 90 hour data which suggests rain arriving sometime middle of the day Thursday and lasting Thursday night into the overnight hours. But one run of one model is no way to plan life, so expect updates/changes/refinements to this prophesy. read more

Big storm system churning through Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi today will be here tonight.

Local worry level: low.

Before-Storm Winds

Before storms, gusts to 40 MPH possible. Blowing in from the south, crossing perpendicular to east-west highways (I-40, I-840, and I-440*), so be especially careful driving big trucks. Don’t get blown out your lane. read more