Up to 51° Wednesday afternoon. No rain. All eyes on Thursday morning when a band of light, cold rain mixed with snow should move in. It will arrive Thursday morning and there will not be much of it. Best rain/snow mix potential is in Will Co but although less likely in Nashville, it’s possible in Nashville. We may not see any precip at all because the system is weak and passing mostly south of us.
Light rain possible but not guaranteed tomorrow. HRRR model predicts tiny showers mid/late afternoon under 0.1″, and not everyone would get them:
Euro thinks we’ll be cloudy, but not raining. If it does rain there won’t be enough rain to cancel anything.
Our severe weather risk is over, but flooding concerns remain. NWS-Nashville issued an Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for the middle of Nashville through 8:45 PM.
Light rain will linger then end sometime before midnight. We’re watching local creek and river gauges and will tweet any flood warnings issued by NWS-Nashville. It can take hours for flooding to occur.
Windy, otherwise beautiful Sunday. High 59.
Rain incoming. Heaviest Monday, then again Wednesday & Wednesday night.
ETA early Monday morning before the AM commute, lasting off and on into the evening, but as far as we can tell, mostly “on” during this time.
More rain is coming, off and on today (Wednesday), most of it this afternoon and tonight.
Between 1.25″ and 1.5″ expected through Thursday morning. NWS-Nashville issued an Areal Flood Watch initially for Nashville. Will Co was included in the Watch this morning.
I am wearing shorts today and tomorrow. Try and stop me. (Seriously stop me, #birdlegs).
Up to 66° today, 69° (nice) Monday. Breezy both afternoons.
Monday afternoon, clouds roll in. Late Monday night our weather week goes straight in the
Light rain overnight. Gone before rush hour. Monday morning low 42°. 51° Monday afternoon.
Cold rain Wednesday morning could fall as a rain/sleet/snow mix, then splat/melt. The Euro model (below) is the warmest of the models, predicting mostly – if not exclusively – rain.
Still gross Sunday morning (34°), bit warmer Sunday afternoon (51°) but still cloudy. Then light rain Sunday night.
We do the mornings 30°s, afternoons mid/upper 40° thing next week. Precip possible but iffy Tuesday night into Wednesday (low water content) and again Friday (as usual models vary substantially).
Snow isn’t found in Euro Ensemble model data thru 2/9/20. The slope rises toward the end of that time frame but that’s been happening all winter in this product and no one has used a sled.
2. Winds gusting to 30-35 MPH this morning should relax this afternoon.
3. Cold front tonight. You need a jacket. Wind chills will drop below freezing around 9 PM.
4. It’s going to stay cold. Wake up wind chill 19° Sunday morning. Wind chills in the 20°s all day Sunday. Monday will be worse, wake up to 10° wind chill, with wind chills again only the 20°s all day Monday.
One weather model, the HRRR, thinks heavy rain and thunderstorms will arrive around 4 PM (give or take a few hours).
The HRRR model thinks these storms may be strong or severe, however, this model may be overstating the severity of the storms (below see HRRR model which expects 1,161 j/kg of surface based CAPE to fuel a pretty big storm or two; this high amount of storm fuel seems unrealistic given the cloud cover, so HRRR may be predicting the storms to be worse than they’ll actually be).
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