Scattered light rain approaching late this afternoon, should be here tonight and continue heavier overnight, ending with just under 0.5″ sometime early Monday morning.
Heavier rain and non-severe storms expected between here and Nooga after 3 AM Monday . . .
Late this morning a warm front will lift north over us. Go outside later, you’ll feel it, rising dewpoints, rising humidity.
When rain this morning in Memphis gets to us sometime this afternoon, it’ll encounter a low amount of instability
Rain today should pull out before 4 PM, but clouds linger.
Up to 74F Wednesday. A stiff south breeze will transport moisture, while energy passing through sets off another round of off and on rain and maybe some thunderstorms throughout Wednesday.
Sometimes they do a “growl” for certain sirens (not a full wail) for testing purposes, but until this morning I was never exactly sure when they might do it.
Sirens are a secondary warning method for those outside. You aren’t guaranteed to hear them. Best to have a wake-me-up app on your phone and a NOAA weather radio in your house. Sirens aren’t designed to be heard inside and there’s no guarantee you will always hear them outside either, especially if you’ve got your earbuds in, Denise.
Rain likely Monday night, ETA sometime after dark, lasting through the overnight hours. 0.26″ total, a few showers may linger into daylight Tuesday but if that happens, it won’t be much more additional rain.
We dodged two rounds of storms yesterday. The “cap” (a layer of warm air aloft) put a lid on our volatile atmosphere. Prevented more bad stuff. WTG cap.
The cap works like a kink in a hose. You can have the water flowing, but kink that hose and nothing comes out.
It was one supercell producing at least two strong tornadoes.
Our tornado was rated EF-3. Ratings refer to the highest damage reported; this one had EF-0, EF-1, EF-2, and EF-3 damage at various points, but it’s called “EF-3” because that got the highest rating. EF-3 damage was in Germantown, Donelson, and East Nashville. Here’s the zoom on Nashville/Davidson County:
The first line in yesterday’s blog was
4″ to 6″ of rain (some may see a bit more) is the current forecast from Sunday night through Wednesday; however, timing and rainfall totals are uncertain because models disagree. We may need to decrease or increase these totals.
No concerns for any outdoor weekend activities.
Total rainfall Monday around 1″.
There is a chance for some strong storms on Monday and Tuesday with instability on the rise, but heavy rainfall is the main concern.
Snow should continue into the lunch hour. It should end by early afternoon.
Snow is only expected to stick mainly to grassy areas. Temps this morning are mid 30°s north of I-40. Temps are between 32° and 35° south of I-40.
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