Note: this forecast is for Davidson and Williamson Counties only. It is not written for all of Middle Tennessee. This forecast would be much different if our audience was in southern or eastern Middle Tennessee.
Author: David
Flash Flood Watch, Wind Advisory, & Severe Storm Potential. Easter 2020 is so 2020.
Easter Morning, Afternoon, & Night: Social Media Threats, Risks, Timing, & Uncertainties
Best Case, Worst Case, What We Think, & What We Know about Easter Sunday Heavy Rain and Severe Storms.
Middle Tennessee is under an enhanced risk of severe storms on Sunday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Damaging straight line winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible.
NWS-Nashville
I’m going to trust you. If you’re going to skim this, don’t read it at all because you’ll miss important details.
Update on Significant Severe Storm & Heavy Rainfall Concerns Easter Sunday
Bedtime, Cooler Starting Tomorrow, Rainy (Stormy?) Easter Sunday.
Rest of Tonight Looks Quiet
Tonight’s storm used just about all the storm fuel, leaving nothing behind to power a second line coming in later. We think the second line will be weak. Maybe some lightning, but mostly just rain. Davidson County’s Tornado Watch has been cancelled. Will Co’s Tornado Watch will probably be cancelled before 2 AM.
Tornado Watch until 2 AM.
Video Update 857 PM
Tornado Watch Details
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for Davidson and Williamson Counties until 2 AM.
The Watch reflects concern a line of storms, ETA between 11 PM and 2 AM, will produce tornadoes. Most models are trending toward a midnight to 1 AM ETA, but you should remain alert for warnings and ETA changes until this line passes. Storms may arrive early. Storms will form a line and come in from the northwest.
Severe Thunderstorm Risks Tuesday (meh) & Wednesday (/puts reading glasses on/).
Storms are more likely Wednesday, less likely Tuesday.
Tuesday’s “Meh” Storm Risk
No/few storms Tuesday thru 7 PM per HRRR model:
Models are quiet Tuesday night. Storms show up on the NAM3 model around sunrise Wednesday morning but those look weak.
Severe Weather Possible Tonight: Damaging Winds, Hail, maybe a Tornado. Full details:
Storms are coming.
- Storms should arrive between 10 PM and 2 AM, maybe even before that. Be weather aware.
- Have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially after dark. (NOAA Weather Radio, local media, etc.).
- Do you know where you would take shelter from severe weather?
- New to severe weather? Click this.
Strong surface winds blowing from the southwest will gradually increase late this morning and this afternoon. Winds will transport humid air, fueling storms later. No rain or storms expected early/mid afternoon.
Tornado Watch Details for Williamson County
A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM for Williamson County, not Nashville (not Davidson County).
Why not Nashville?
The warm front we’ve been talking about all day isn’t expected to make it to Nashville/Davidson County. The storms got here early/mid afternoon, and removed any fuel storms later could use to power up. No guarantees, but I think this will be a non-event in Nashville/Davidson County. But we could still see heavy rain, thunderstorms, even some small hail, but the tornado concern is nah.