Chilly (maybe sprinkly at times) today until clouds clear. Image below from 9:21 AM. Clearing line may not arrive until late this afternoon. Therefore only 54°. Cold north wind.

Close to freezing around dawn Saturday and Sunday mornings. Then we warm up. read more

I am supposed to be at the gym.

I’m not because the forecast changed.

Earlier, there was question about whether a warm front would get far enough north “providing ample moisture for storms to feed on.” read more

18z model runs (six of them, below) depict Wednesday’s severe event southwest of – but not including – Davidson and Williamson Counties:

This aligns with the 15% severe threat for Wednesday from the Storm Prediction Center. read more

Substantial wind shear will be in place as a line of storms approaches Monday morning. ETA late morning/lunch. But instability should be near zero, reducing if not eliminating most/all severe storm concerns. Winds may still be strong (40 MPH or so) — and we cannot totally rule out a severe wind event — but there is no reason for a hail or tornado concern Monday. read more

The supercell appeared on radar a year ago tonight. By 12:33 AM Tuesday March 3, 2020, that [expletive deleted] was here. You know what happened.

I was behind screens watching radar, data, internal chat, typing furiously in surreal horror. Since then I’ve watched and read everything I could find about that tornado. I’ve been back through the radar data. I’ve reviewed the meteorology. I’ve reviewed every tweet I sent and every frame of video footage I could find. I’ve looked at, and walked in, stood in and looked up through, your damage. Many, many times. Trying to process it, to understand it, to be better. I’ve even written a retrospective.  read more

By the time the storm line got to us tonight, low level winds were running parallel to storm motion. Add an inversion aloft with a heavily saturated column. The trio wrecked our low-probability tornado chances. read more

Ice missiles fly off the tops of cars and truck and onto the windshields of cars and trucks behind them. These are this weekend’s biggest hazard. Sometimes the ice doesn’t missile backwards causing property damage or an accident. Sometimes it slides forward and covers your windshield while you are driving. Clear the top of you car and truck before going out. read more

The 18z HRRR model run thinks snow will pass north of us Wednesday morning. By sundown Wednesday night, we begin several hours of snow ending around 1 AM Thursday morning. Then a pause until sunrise, when a sleet/snow event begins then transitions quickly back to snow and continues at least through noon Thursday. Then the model cuts off. read more