Examining “it’s a three out of five weather day tomorrow oh noes,” what it means and what it does not mean, alt. title: respirating into a paper bag

  1. WINDY. A storm line will arrive Wednesday night, but before that, south winds will howl 20-30 MPH and could gust over 40 MPH. Then when the storm line comes through those winds may briefly intensify and blow from the west/southwest so maybe yeah, tie down your things unless you want them in your neighbor’s yard.
  2. RANT ABOUT /OH NOES IT’S GONNA BE A THREE OUT OF FIVE/. You may have seen/heard breathless exclamations “it’s a THREE out of FIVE” threat based on the below SPC map. It is factually true on the SPC scale this is a 3 of 5 but that is like saying “the Titans are playing an NFL team tomorrow” and getting scared for no good reason — the Titans could be playing any NFL team. For example, Jacksonville (they suck, why worry because /checks notes/ they’re the Jaguars). Or, the Bengals (ruh roh, they are now featuring a competent offensive line and they franchise tagged their interception-making safety). Or, the Colts (whose QB carousel landed on 37 year old Matt Ryan so if the Titans were ever down 28-3 are we worried yet). The point is “three out of five” is like saying “an NFL team is coming to Nissan,” you don’t know whether to be concerned until you hear/read more about the opponent. (Note I considered using a Broadway play analogy but I am uncultured and would have made a mistake ranking the plays, although for sure The Scarlet Pimpernel would have been bottom).

3. TIMING. A squall line is going to come speeding through here probably early evening Wednesday night. “7-8 PM” is NWS-Nashville’s thought which seems about right to me (HRRR model agrees, below) tho that ETA could wiggle earlier or later than that, so look for an update (changes?) tonight and tomorrow. read more

Grab that ham sammy or lettuce salad and read this during lunch about severe storms maybe getting here later.

WHAT

Tornado, damaging straight line winds, and large hail.

A low probability of a high impact event.

In the form of small, rotating supercells spread widely around the evening. So wide we might not even see rain. read more

The Weekend, Severe Storms Possible Monday, Then Winter Trysta Comeback.

LADIES & GENTLEMEN THE WKND

A few showers may sneak Saturday night into Sunday morning, no big deal. Just for some of us tho. Here’s the HRRR showing coverage and intensity. Meh.

Showers and a few storms will stretch out in a line Sunday but the line may stay northwest of us as shown below by the Euro. read more

Looking Back 2 Years Ago, then at Rain and Storms Sunday & Monday.

Obviously this is a difficult day for many of us, the two year tornado anniversary. In 2020 we wrote a retrospective, last year I wrote a personal note on the one year anniversary, today we invite you to what Riley Eillis wrote about her friends who were lost in Nashville that night. read more

Storm & Flood Threat Tuesday.

Tonight’s 0z run of the HRRR model thinks beginning Tuesday after lunch an atmosphere somewhat capable of producing a tornado or two, damaging straight line winds, and maybe even hail will settle in. The severe storm capability should linger into the evening and end before bedtime if current model data has it right. read more

I’m concerned about flooding next week.

Those of you who live near fast rising creeks and streams, and near low-lying usual spot flood areas, need to spend the weekend getting ready for two potential flooding events next week (Tuesday-Wednesday & Thursday-Friday). read more

Evening Update on Tornado/Wind Concerns Thursday

A MIGHTY WIND

Before the storms expect south winds sustained 20-30 MPH, with gusts to 45 MPH. Loose objects will be relocated.

MORNING RAIN

This should not be a big deal. Insufficient CAPE to power storms will be the reason. read more

Blergy Today. & About Rain/Storms Thursday. Severe? Ehhhh, maybe?

Blerg today.

We got to talk blerg today. Blerg means no snow, no sun, temps under 40°. I issued a Blerg Watch today (conditions favorable for blerg) but not a Blerg Alert (blerg in progress) because we may see a few flakes this afternoon, the sun may show up briefly this afternoon, and some of us may actually hit 40°. read more

Few Flurries Possible Tuesday Morning, No Worries

A few flurries are possible Tuesday morning. You can see them at the end of the 12z HRRR model run.

I’ll tweet the 18z run when it comes out in a few hours. Think these will be inconsequential if they happen at all — the precip isn’t on other models. Surface temps should be at least 3° (probably more) above freezing. Splat:Melt. No party, no worries. read more

Transition to Snow, Variable Accumulation, Freezing/Travel Hazards Tonight/Overnight

Snow should, this afternoon, fall atop the rainy, slushy, mixyfrizzy precip we got this morning. Will Co got way more of the frozen stuff than Nashville. Will Co was colder at the surface and aloft, and Will Co got the heaviest precip bands. read more