The Weekend, Severe Storms Possible Monday, Then Winter Trysta Comeback.


A few showers may sneak Saturday night into Sunday morning, no big deal. Just for some of us tho. Here’s the HRRR showing coverage and intensity. Meh.

Showers and a few storms will stretch out in a line Sunday but the line may stay northwest of us as shown below by the Euro.

So maybe a stray shower or two Sunday with a tiny shot at a downpour or lightning strike, but good news the severe concerns Sunday are west of us:


Monday looks like rain with potential for severe storms.

SPC overall probability for any severe weather (hail, tornado, damaging winds) is 15% within 25 miles of us. Notice we’re on the northern part of the risk area, better to be there than in the middle!

Expect this risk area to move a bit during outlooks issued this weekend.

Rough ETA is middle of the day but I have low/no confidence in that right now because higher res “convection allowing” models aren’t yet in range.

The danger will be in a classic squall line pushed through by a cold front. The severe threat will depend on how unstable we get (CAPE) before the line streaks through.

Also possible storms form ahead of the line but data on that is fuzzy. Flooding risk is low, thinking an inch or so.


Pretty cold Tuesday after the Monday rain/storm/cold front ends. Another system will pass SE of us mid/late next week and maybe cause light off and on rain (no storms). Then by next weekend an arctic airmass jailbreaks and comes sliding in from the midwest:

We may not get above freezing Saturday the 12th. Wager nothing valuable on an 8 day forecast, instead note the signal will be colder next weekend, the start of Spring Break for many of us.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
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