Heat will build just in time for Official Summer which starts tomorrow.
Models are beginning to agree that we won’t hit 100°, but it’s going to be very close. If we do make it to a hundo it’ll be nice to stop talking about the almost 10 year streak of sub 100° days that started on July 8, 2012.
Yes there are people out there rooting for the temp to reach one hundred degrees. They like extremes. It’s how they’re wired. If are one of them, you are loved. You be you.
Record Heat Incoming?
Dry air started spilling over us this morning.
It’ll get even drier tonight and tomorrow. Red at the end of the below dewpoint GIF is super-dry air: dewpoints in the 20°s!:
A north breeze will blow through the weekend, a gift from the notorious D.A.M.
Looking for 98° today. Heat index up to 104°. The record temp is 100° from 1952. Doubt we’ll make it there today.
Rain is unlikely but the HRRR consistently shows a few non-severe thunderstorms popping up around 6-8 PM.
Oppressive humidity will combine with 98° today and 99° Thursday to send our “feels like” heat index well over 100°, maybe as high as 105°+.
Humidity drops a category (low 70°s to upper 60°s) by Friday.
→ Our bodies are not acclimated to the heat/humidity combo here today. It’ll stay through most of this week. Cramping, feeling dizzy, headaches are among the warning signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Listen to your bod. No force of will or “toughness” can overcome the natural process of an overheating body starting to shut down. At minimum, heat exhaustion is embarrassing because you’re vomiting on a sidewalk. At worst, it can land you in the hospital with organ failure. I’m not a biologist but I recall from A&P classes that your organs are important. Take care of those most vulnerable — those working outside — and if you employ such workers require that they get inside. These conditions will exceed every and any reasonable OSHA workplace safety guideline.
→ Humidity will get worse each day. It’ll be nice today. But big dewpoint jump Sunday. Then we straight up heatswamp Monday through at least Thursday.
→ Temps will follow the humidity rise.
→ CMA Fest Sunday will scorch. Shaded temps up to 92° plus dewpoints rising up thru the 60°s. This’ll drive the heat index close to 98°. That’s the forecast for the shade and does not account for the heat radiating off crowds. Music goers should mix in more water today to prep for tomorrow. Locals are not acclimated for this.
THE GOOD NEWS
→ Humidity way down for CMA Fest.
→ Temps cooler than most CMA Fest weekends, the only gripe is Sunday:
→ Only rain in the forecast is maybe Friday with a few light showers in the morning and afternoon possible, HRRR model below:
Below normal temps and humidity this weekend. Today will be the nicer of the two days.
I still doubt it’ll rain tomorrow afternoon. HRRR shows very little activity. What little is has is meh. But, we can’t totally rule it out. This is the 12z HRRR model:
Temps drop today and rise only a bit tomorrow. Both below seasonal norms. No rain either day. Comfortable humidity.
→Sunday things start unsettling. Dewpoints and temps start to rise at the surface while winds aloft shift and allow subtle little disturbances to pass overhead. This combo creates random rain and thunderstorm chances for mid-late afternoon through early evening. Rain at your location Sunday is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
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