Late Afternoon/Early Evening Snow Chances

Current Temps and Radar

Wednesday – Winter Weather Advisory – Wake Up 26°, High 38°

We are under a Winter Weather Advisory, beginning noon Wednesday, lasting until 6 AM Thursday.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-25 09.50.06

The National Weather Service believes that the majority of Williamson County will accumulate around 1″, maybe more, of snow… With the exception of the very north western portions. Less is expected in Davidson County.

The event should all start between 6 PM and 9 PM:

What do the weather models say about the snow totals?

NAM4 (12z run) has us getting between 1″ and 2″ of snow. Most of the action stays south of Nashville

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-25 10.09.25

GFS (latest run, 12z) has Nashville getting a dusting to 1″ of snow. The track of snow is further south.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-25 10.14.48

Euro model (not shown), agrees: 1″.

And then there is the Canadian, the under-performer:

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-25 10.37.55

None of the models think that we will see additional snow after midnight. This system will move fast.

Areas south of I 40 and east of I 65 will likely get above an inch, while places north of I 40 and west of I 65 are expecting a dusting.

The weather balloon from 6 AM this morning shows that the entire atmosphere is below freezing and is just waiting on the surge of moisture.

SPC Sounding Analysis Page - 02_25_2015 12 UTC - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-25 10.17.59

The amount of snow we get will be completely reliant on the track of the disturbance to our south.

Satellite Images - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-25 10.30.16

Infrared imagery from 9:15 AM shows the disturbance tracking closely along the Louisiana coast. If it stays further south we will have a dusting of snow, but if it begins to track further north we will have above an inch.

Additional updates can be found @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here for all the latest on this winter storm. Consult multiple reliable weather sources multiple times.

Potholes Explained. Also, This Week’s Weather!

Current Temps and Radar

Why So Many Potholes?

The Winter Storm of February 16, 2015, known as #Snowbama & #Oldslickory, produced quite a bit of ice in Williamson and Davidson Counties.

snowbama old slickery

In the wake of these storms y’all have been reporting that there are lots of potholes.

pot

 

But what is the root of this pothole pandemic?

Blame the Ice!

Another theory: Mole People are climbing up to the surface from underground cities.

They are often mistaken for groundhogs…

wake

Be careful when driving over one of these potholes/moleholes!

Also, we got a lot of rain over the weekend, from 1″ to 3″:

Wintry shenanigans are happening to our south, and may even spread into southern Middle TN tonight. Nothing for us, though, because the system is too far south and there’s too much dry air in place, blocking any snowfall from making it to the ground.

Tuesday – Cold & A Decent Amount of Sunshine – Wake Up 20°, High 39°

Temps will be in the 20’s overnight.

Wednesday – Partly Sunny  – Wake Up 25°, High 42°

Overnight temps will be in the 20’s once again.

Extended:

That Thursday snow chance remains rather meh. We aren’t worried about it. You shouldn’t be either.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

The Meltdown: Flooding Concerns Today/Tomorrow, Sunday Snow?

Current Temps and Radar

1:35 PM Update

More info on the flooding potential. We remain under an Areal Flood Watch until Noon Sunday.

You can monitor area creeks and streams by clicking here.

1106 AM Update

In case you’ve been sleeping for the past 24 hours, last night we had a mixture of snow and sleet, followed by freezing rain that covered everything in a cold/slippery shell. Here are a few pics of the snow and sleet with a shell of freezing rain on top of it.

from @jrlinds_bowtie

jrlinds_bowtie

from @hhFlyingMonkey

hhFlyingMonkey

In other news:

Yesterday Porky escaped Mt. Juliet Middle School and enjoyed the snow before everything iced over.

pig

He was returned safely back to the middle school, but the Mt. Juliet Police Department called Porky: “the most stubborn piggy that we have come in contact with.”

(Editor’s Note: you heard it here first).

Today – The Meltdown & Rainy – High 45°

Winds are blowing close to 20 MPH. This is making things pretty miserable. They should die down tonight. Meanwhile, temperatures are already above freezing and will continue to rise into the mid 40’s. The snow and ice will melt throughout the day at various rates.

meltdown

In addition to the melting ice, an impressive, soaking rain will continue all day. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Advisory for all of Davidson and the north half of Williamson County until 3 PM this afternoon. A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, and ponding of water in urban areas is occurring or imminent.

flood advisoryu

Between 1″ – 3″ of rain has already fallen in the in the indicated area, and another 1″ – 2″ is expected.

The National Weather Service has also issued a Flash Flood Watch until Noon Sunday because of heavy rain falling on top of the melting snow and ice.

flood watch

Here is some advice from the NWS.

turn around

TURN AROUND… DON’T DROWN! Please.

Additionally, a few rumbles thunder cannot be ruled out this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has given Nashville a 10% for thunderstorms.

SPC Feb 21, 2015 1300Z Thunderstorm Outlook - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-21 09.52.33

Any thunderstorms that develop will not be strong or severe.

Which reminds me, not quite the same, but:

(Editor’s Note: Watch that video. He prefers thundersnow to a $500 Million Powerball Jackpot. Love that. I’ve met Cantore. Seriously, he’s a great dude. Very personable, smart, professional. If you’re so inclined and can meet him you should).

The heavy rain will end overnight.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-21 10.17.44

Sunday – Snow? Not Buying It – Wake Up 31°, High 39°

The National Weather Service says there is a small chance rain that any lingers until Sunday morning (7 AM) will likely mix with sleet and snow. According to NWS, slight snow chances will continue throughout the day.

Models are indicating that we will have a slight chance for snow Sunday afternoon also. Below is an Image of the GFS between noon and 3 PM.

not buying it

…I’m not buying it.

After looking at forecast soundings the atmosphere is not looking entirely conducive to produce snow. The below image shows the NAM’s forecast sounding for 5 AM Sunday Morning.

forecast sounding

This shows us:

1. The atmosphere is too dry and any snow flake that falls will sublimate (turn to gas) before reaching the surface.

Editor’s Image:

2. Warm layer aloft will completely melt any snow flake attempting to reach the ground.

3. #Snowdome!

Overnight the temperature will drop into the teens and a few flurries will become more feasible.

Monday – Cold & Partly Sunny  – Wake Up 17°, High 29°

We will have a chance for a few snow flakes during the early morning morning hours. At most we will have a dusting of snow, which should not pose big problems for the morning commute.

Overnight the temperature will get down into the teens once again.

Extended Blerg:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Ice Storm Warning Update; Areal Flood Watch Saturday

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Ice Storm Warning – High 19°

When:

As I write this, the atmosphere is cold enough to allow for the initial precip to be snow. The image below illustrates that.

Microsoft PowerPoint - [02-20-15_Winter_Weather [Compatibility Mode]] 2015-02-20 10.23.57

The HRRR is showing snow beginning in the early afternoon. Noon is probably too soon. Think mid/late afternoon.

hrrr snowww

We will have snow for a few hours and then we will transition briefly into sleet during the late afternoon. Accumulations of sleet and snow are not expected to exceed 1″.

Tonight, warm air rushes into Middle Tennessee. The first round of warm air will be from well above the surface, instead of at the surface, which means we will transition into freezing rain. Below is a forecast sounding depicting the warmer air aloft, but below-freezing air at the surface.

Microsoft PowerPoint - [02-20-15_Winter_Weather [Compatibility Mode]] 2015-02-20 10.24.49

This transition into freezing rain will occur sometime between 6 PM and 9 PM in Nashville.

freezing rain timing

0.25″ is a lot of ice.

Don’t be fooled by the freezing rain!

A few more points about the freezing rain:

  • it won’t be continuous. Meaning, it’ll be off and on.
  • when it starts (sometime between 6 PM and 9 PM), it’s not time to drive home. You should already be home when it begins. We think you should be home before the evening commute starts.
  • after it starts, all eyes will be on the surface temps. Right now, models vary on when surface temps will rise above freezing. The HRRR has surface temps above freezing around 8 PM. Other models think the surface temps will warm above freezing rain around midnight. The NAM4 model thinks it will be around 2 AM, but we think that model is an outlier. We may see anywhere from a few hours of freezing rain to several hours of freezing rain.
  • When temps rise above freezing, it will take at least a few hours to complete any melting process. Be especially careful on bridges and overpasses. Melting efficiency will improve as the temp warms.
  • I am optimistic travel will be OK in the morning because temps will be rising through the 30°s and 40°s on Saturday. But, consult TDOT Smartway and other sources for road info for your travel needs.

We are to the point where we stop forecasting (using models) and start nowcasting (using radar/observations). So, additional information/nowcasting will be posted @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here. Consult multiple reliable weather sources multiple times.

Saturday — Melting; Washout; Minor Flooding Possible — Wake Up 35°, High 46°

Rain will be especially intense mid-day tomorrow. We can’t rule out a rumble of thunder or two, but no strong and certainly no severe thunderstorms. An Areal Flood Watch is in effect:

Rain through Sunday morning will approach 3″. With melting ice, minor flooding is possible.

Also, this:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Winter Storm Watch Update, Plus…Ice Quakes?

Current Temps and Radar

Last night, many of you may have seen this . . .

Or heard, maybe even felt a shake . . .

You felt ice quakes. Or, to use nerd, “cryoseismic booms.” They sound like an approaching tyrannosaurs rex . . .

. . . but they are not dangerous.

We are not making this up. They are a thing.

The cold front that moved through yesterday caused temps to drop into the single digits last night. This produced a hard freeze and caused the water that seeped into the soil to rapidly refreeze.

This rapid freezing of water in the soil is like having a soda explode in the freezer, but on a much larger scale.

If you have an exuberant amount of free time, watch the process below_ - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-19 09.15.54

When water freezes, it expands. The expanding ice in the ground puts a lot of stress on the soil and bed rock until it cracks. This cracking is what causes the rumbling and boom.

cryoseism

Now you know!

Today – Cold & Sunny – High 19°

Cold. Just cold. Nothing else to say except it’s freaking cold.

Overnight, the winds will become calm and the low temperature will slip into the lower teens.

FridayWinter Storm Watch: Transitioning Wintry Precip – Wake Up 11°, High 30°

A low pressure system developing over Texas will approach Middle Tennessee during the day and bring us a smorgasboard of winter weather. This has caused the NWS to Issue a Winter Storm Watch for Middle Tennessee from 12 PM Friday through 12 PM Saturday.

www

Models are indicating that the morning will begin with the chance for snow. (Below are images of the GFS)

morning snow

Snow will transition (or, if you prefer, Trasition: Optimus Prime’s distant nephew) into sleet during the afternoon.

sleet afternoon

Overnight we could see a brief period of freezing rain followed by a cold/soaking rain.

freezing rain rain

The National Weather Service believes that we could see 1″ to 2″ of snow accumulation, up to 1/4″ of sleet accumulation, and 1/10″ to 1/4″ of ice on the roads.

National Weather Service Text Product Display - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-19 10.20.50

Activate #Snowdome!

Bat Signal - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-19 10.26.35

Saturday – Rain – Wake Up 29°, High 47°

A steady soaking rain accompanied by strong winds at 15mph –  25mph (gusting to 40mph) will be likely all day.

The rain will continue into Sunday..

extended

Then, sometime Sunday night, colder temps will wrap back in, and give us a chance for more snow into Monday morning.

Please remember this forecast is uncertain, highly variable, low resolution (both temporal and spatial), not the final word, and it will probably change, so keep checking for updates. Our ability to forecast precipitation types this far away is not good, but confidence increases the closer we get to an event.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Slight Snow Chances Continue; Wind Chill Advisory Tonight

Current Temps and Radar

We stopped the #Snowdome clock this morning at:

An hour or so after its death, The Weather Channel broadcast this familiar image:

Despite producing very little liquid, a snow ratio over 20:1 created over 1″ of fluffy snow in some locations. (Justyn is from NWS-Nashville)

twitter report

We are still waiting on the official snow fall total from the airport. Snow was reported by NWS of 1.2″ at BNA, but it turns out that was at the NWS-Nashville office. We’re still waiting for official word from the airport. Meanwhile, Snowdome Truthers have lined up outside our HQ.

It may be too soon to “call” it.  “Some additional energy will swing down in the trough with additional clouds and snow showers this afternoon.” Flurries remain possible this afternoon and early tonight per HRRR and NAM4 models.

Multiple places in Nashville got measured 1″ of snow. Update: BNA has reported 0.7″. I think as long as the streak lives, Snowdome leaves. It’s the only objective way to go about it. Reasonable minds may disagree.

The Clock is restarted!

Here are some snow pictures from this morning.

Patrick Parham in Franklin:

patric parham

Chad Gore in Cool Springs:

chad gore

Remember to tweet your storm measurements and pictures using #tspotter.

Today – Getting Colder & Flurries – High 26°

The line of snow has moved east of Davidson and Williamson Counties and the sun has begun to shine. We will remain under a Winter Weather Advisory until 12 PM this afternoon. Travel conditions will be be hazardous especially on untreated roads.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-18 09.12.24

This afternoon and tonight, northerly winds of 15mph – 20mph (gusts 30mph) will blow in a very cold air mass. Wind chill values will be in the single digits! This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Wind Chill Advisory between 6 PM tonight until 12 PM tomorrow.

Overnight we will have single digit temps and a wind chill between -5° and -15°!

Thursday – Mostly Sunny & COLD – Wake Up 1°, High 18°

Despite being mostly sunny, the high temperature will likely stay below 20° during the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the single digits or a few degrees below 0° throughout the day. This is due to the northerly wind blowing at 5mph – 15mph (gusts 25mph).

Overnight the winds will calm down, and we will have a very small chance for flurries and temps in the single digits.

Friday – Transitioning Wintry Mix = Snowcone – Wake Up 7°, High 31°

Another system arrives.

Not Again!

First, there is a chance for snow before noon. After noon, the snow is expected to slowly transition into sleet as temps warm to near freezing (32°). (Remember the warm nose from Monday? It’s back!) Below is an image of the GFS showing the transition from snow to sleet during the late afternoon.

snowcone

(kinda looks like a snow cone)

Friday night, the sleet should slowly turn into freezing rain. The NWS thinks that this changeover will happen around midnight.

By Saturday morning we will just have a cold rain, and a lot of it. In fact, the weekend looks to be a wet mess.

extended

Then, sometime Sunday, colder temps will wrap back in, and give us a chance for more snow into Monday morning.

Please remember this forecast is uncertain, highly variable, low resolution (both temporal and spatial), not the final word, and it will probably change, so keep checking for updates. Our ability to forecast precipitation types this far away is not good, but confidence increases the closer we get to an event.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

#ThanksSnowbama + The Cold & Maybe A Little Snow Continues

Current Temps and Radar

Thanks a lot #Snowbama:

It is clear that the #Snowdome is not dead and the only one to blame for its resilience is #snowbama.

thanks snow bama

This morning at 7 AM the National Weather Service was forecasting between 1″ – 4″ of SNOW in Nashville.

1-4 inches

By 10:30 AM the NWS revised the snow totals to ICE totals of between 1/4″ – 1/2″.

ice now

The reason lies in the hands of #snowbama flipping on the switch to the #snowdome.

A warm layer of air was present at 5,000 feet and partially melted the falling snowflakes.

snowdome sounding

It then refroze and became sleet as it neared the surface.

In addition, the track of the low pressure system was originally though to move south of I-20. Below is an image of the model run from Saturday (14th) looking at where the position of the low would be at noon on Monday.

low further

The surface analysis taken from noon today shows the low north of I-20…

surface map nash

../which is further north than the models originally thought.

In a nutshell: The difference between over and inch of snow and less than half an inch of ice was a thin layer of warm air at 5,000 feet and the center of low pressure moving just a little further north.

#ThanksSnowbama

Tonight – Wintry Precip Ending & Getting Cold – Tonight Teens

The National Weather Service believes that our chance for sleet/snow will end tonight at 9 PM. All the models are in agreement that the threat for more precip will be over before 9 PM. Below is an image of the High Res NAM at the said time.

NAM Wintry

The precipitation will have ended, but temps plummeting into the teens over night will cause the roads to refreeze and cause very hazardous driving conditions.

ice ice

This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue an Ice Storm Warning until 9 AM tomorrow morning.

It would not be wise to attempt to drive tonight of tomorrow morning.

Tuesday – Mostly Sunny & Cooler – Wake Up 13°, High 28°

We will begin the day with ice on the roads and temps in the teens! Again, we will have an Ice Storm Warning in effect until 9 AM.

Partial sunshine, temps in the the upper 20’s, and road crews diligently working to clear the ice will help with travel conditions in the afternoon.

We will have a chance for snow flurries to begin again during the late afternoon and continue throughout Tuesday night. The GFS has the snow showers approaching Middle Tennessee between 6 PM and midnight.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-16 20.12.06

Temps will drop into the Teens once again overnight!

Wednesday – Flurries & Getting Colder – Wake Up 11°, High 24°

We will have a chance for flurries all day as a disturbance moves through Middle Tennessee. The GFS and NAM both have off and on flurries all day. Additionally, they both show the light snow stopping Tuesday night. Below is what the GFS is showing at noon.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-16 20.25.13

Over half an inch is expected…If the #Snowdome has nothing to say about it. Be very cautious while driving because if any ice does remain on the roads (mostly but not limited to elevated surfaces), the dusting of snow could hide it from sight.

Overnight we will become mostly clear and a VERY COLD AIR MASS will blow in. Temperatures will drop below 0° Fahrenheit and near the record low Thursday morning.

The very cold and snowy pattern will continue into the end of the week.

extended
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

#Snowbama

Current Temps and Radar

TodayWarmish Afternoon & Then Rain/Flurries As Temps Crash – High 48°

A clipper system will race through Middle Tennessee around noon bringing a slight chance for rain and no worry flurries during the late afternoon. From NWS-Nashville:

clipper snow

The short range models are picking up on this chance for rain transitioning into light snow. Below is a look at what the HRRR is showing during the late afternoon.

no worry snowz

Overnight we will be clear and cold because of a high system pressure centered in the Great Lakes that will sage down into Middle Tennessee. Wind will become northerly at 10mph –  20mph!

Overnight temps will bottom out in the Lower teens and wind chills will get below 0 degrees!

Sunday

Sunday will begin in the lower teens and only reach the mid 20’s during the afternoon. Increasing clouds combined with northerly winds at 5mph – 15mph will allow the wind chill to get as low as -2° during the day.

President’s Day Snow, aka #Snowbama

Model overview: All the models are in agreement snow will begin Sunday night and continue into Monday. Then, for Monday, the the models diverge in their agreement…The GFS keeps snow possible in Nashville throughout the night into Tuesday. The Euro cuts the snow threat off overnight and keeps the activity off to the east of Nashville. While the NAM is in between these two on timing. The NWS believes that we will hold onto a slight chance for snow through Thursday because of a trough of low pressure that will stick around and allow for disturbances to race through it.

Details

The GFS has #Snowbama beginning around midnight.

nash snow gfs

With snow ending by Tuesday evening.

snowbama end

A slight chance for snow will continue through Thursday as a series of smaller disturbances race through Nashville.

smaller gfs

Snow chances will completely end early Thursday morning.

The NAM has #Snowbama beginning Sunday evening.

nam snowbama begins

#Snowbama’s first term ends by Monday afternoon.

NAM Snowbama

According to the NAM there will be a lull in the snow until #Snowbama’s second term begins Tuesday morning.

second term

The NAM doesn’t go out far enough to see the end of the second term.

The Euro has #Snowbama beginning early Monday Morning and ending Wednesday afternoon. It dumps about a half a foot on us. 6″!  This is the high end of the probability spectrum, and is NOT a forecast.

Probabilities/Amounts

Once we go through the day Monday…we get this:

So, what we have is a about a 5″ difference between the low-snow total models and the high-snow total models. As usual, the truth is probably somewhere in between. NWS-Nashville is splitting the difference, and says it’s possible we will see 3″ or 4″ on Monday.

THIS MAY CHANGE. IN FACT, IT PROBABLY WILL. CONSULT MULTIPLE RELIABLE SOURCES MULTIPLE TIMES FOR YOUR WEATHER INFORMATION.

The streak of days without an inch of snow appears to be coming to an end.

extended

Find more details throughout the day @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Snow Streak In Jeopardy?

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Warmer Than Yesterday – High 38°

The high pressure that has been overhead the past couple of days will shift to the southeast and allow us to warm into the upper 30’s.

Overnight temperatures will get into the mid 20’s.

Saturday – Warmer Afternoon & Slight Chance for Flurries – Wake Up 26°, High 49°

Temps will warm into the upper 40’s.

After noon, a clipper system will be racing through Davidson/Williamson Counties, causing a cold NW wind to start gusting into the 20s.

During the late afternoon, the clipper system will bring a chance for a few no-worry-flurries. Here is a look at what the High Res NAM is showing at 2 PM Saturday:

no worry snow

Overnight we become partly cloudy and will — temporarily — lose our slight chance for snow. Temperatures will fall into the… teens!

Sunday – Warmer Afternoon & Chance for Flurries – Wake Up 12°(wind chill: 0°), High 26° (wind chill: Teens)

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build into Middle Tennessee which will help usher in a reinforcing blast-o-cold air.

Then, during the afternoon, a strong upper level disturbance will arrive.

All that ahead of what our NWS thinks is a “good chance” for snow late Sunday night/early Monday morning, with accumulation possible.

Sooner or later, our hair is going to be caught in the blender.

Is this that time?

The big picture is becoming slightly less fuzzy, but there remains plenty of uncertainty in the models. It’s fair to start breaking them down for you, but please remember: this is going to change. Perhaps dramatically. Do not unplug from the grid. Stay tuned. Consult multiple reliable sources for your weather info, preferably something a little more informative than your crapapp.

The NAM and the GFS are in relative agreement. They both believe that a few flakes could begin to fall during the late afternoon Sunday. According to both, the event will begin between 6 PM and midnight, but more likely closer to Sunday midnight/Monday AM than late Sunday afternoon.

NAM:

NAM Snow

GFS:

GFS SNOW yo

Both models believe the heaviest snow will fall around midnight and the the event will end before noon on Monday.

Editor’s Note: the reason I’m not jumping on board all the way with this event “happening” is the trend of the GFS model. Thing keeps trending south of us, and the available moisture content for what we think we may see keeps declining. Plus, we’re stil more than 48 hours away from the event. I’m very nervous this’ll bust. Please don’t tell everyone we’re sure it will snow, because we aren’t. We think it’ll probably snow. It’s important we give our intern this forum to handle this the way he sees fit, and I respect his opinions on it. We’ll offer another independent opinion on it tomorrow. 

Below is a look NAM’s modeled sounding using BUFKIT at midnight.

BUFKIT SNOW

The Sounding above makes me believe that the snow to liquid ratio will be above 10:1. During the event the ratio could be between 15:1  and 25:1. The NAM is predicting a total of 0.2″ of liquid to fall during the event. Based solely on the NAM/GFS and the ratios listed, we could see a few inches of snow. Remember this is only based on two models… Don’t panic.

What about the Euro?

This model thinks it all starts between midnight and 6 AM Monday morning and ending Monday night.  It also predicts higher snow amounts.

The Canadian Model is in agreement with the Euro on timing but not snow totals. The Canadian believes that the bulk of the snow will stay south of Nashville and along the MS/AL and TN border.

GEM snow

This is still alot of snow.

Summed up:

The models believe that the snow will begin overnight on Sunday and could continue through Monday afternoon, ending overnight. Snow accumulation is looking more and more likely but this far away I will not give a range. All I will say is that if I were a betting man, I’d put money on breaking the streak of days without 1″ or more of snow.

extended

The NWS believes we will have a slight chance for snow Tuesday through Wednesday night… It is starting to look like the snow will stay south of Nashville on those days.

Just for fun. This:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here. Lots more/updated information will be posted there, including the results of the 2 PM conference call with emergency management, local media, etc.

 

Prepare for Cold

Current Temps and Radar

Getting much colder. Watch the graph below. It’s going the wrong way.

Thursday – Colder. Much Colder – Wake Up 26°, High 31°

The wake up wind chill is 14°. Fourteen!

Overnight temps will drop into the teens. Ugh.

Friday – COLD – Wake Up 16°, High 37°

Just look at this:

So. Cold.

Monday/Tuesday snow potential:

Weather models spit out “solutions” (what it thinks will happen) on a daily basis. The GFS model “runs” 4 times a day. The Euro model runs twice a day. Not only do these not agree with themselves from run to run, but they also disagree with each other.

Here’s what NWS-Nashville noted about the model solutions for Monday/Tuesday:

Yeah. We don’t know either. Could be rain. Or snow. Or sleet. Or ice. Or all of this. Only thing we have some measure of confidence about: there will be precip.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.