Severe Potential With Tonight’s Squall Line

Current Temps and Radar

TodayChance For Showers & Thunderstorms – High 85°

During daylight hours, we will be warm and muggy, with a really small chance for thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur during the late morning/early afternoon.

Tonight –  Slight Risk For Severe Thunderstorms

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Nashville in the Slight category for severe weather potential tonight as a cold front, coupled with a strong line of thunderstorms, pushes through Middle Tennessee. As you can see, the bigger threat is to our west.

The SPC believes that the greatest risk will be damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher. They have us at a 15% chance for damaging winds within 25 miles of any point in Davidson and Williamson County.

The next best threat will be a 5% chance of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

I am hesitant to use the “t” word because the SPC has given us a 2% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. That should be enough of a percent to stay weather alert tonight…

…If you have a NOAA Weather Radio or an weather app that will alert you if a tornado does develop then I would suggest using it tonight. Additionally, will keep you in the loop on Twitter @NashSevereWx.,

Below is a zoomed in look at the SPC’s Day 1 Outlook, with timing.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-09 08.41.11

Right now it looks like the strong squall line (line of thunderstorms) will make it to Nashville between midnight and 5 AM. The HRRR shows the squall line crossing the Tennessee River at 11 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-09 09.41.29

(This model only goes out 15 hours)

The NAM 4 KM model is showing the line of thunderstorms on its way around 1 AM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-09 09.45.26

Summed Up: A line of strong thunderstorms will make it to Nashville between midnight and 5 AM tomorrow morning. The main threats will be damaging winds and hail, but there is a very small threat for a tornado. Keep it tuned with us for updates as we approach midnight. 

Friday – Chance For Showers & Thunderstorms Before Noon – Wake Up 56°, High 70°

According to the National Weather Service we will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms before 1 PM. After noon the chance for rain will end and the cloud cover will gradually clear.

We will be mostly clear overnight and temps will make it into the upper 40’s.

Saturday – Perfect – Wake Up 47°, High 70°

We will be clear and sunny with temps in the lower 70’s!

Overnight will remain mostly clear.

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-09 10.27.15

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Showers & Thunderstorms

Current Temps and Radar

Tonight – The rain is pulling out.

Temps will settle in the low 60°s. This muggy air isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Tuesday – Chance For Showers & Thunderstorms – Wake Up 61°, High 80°

The morning low temp will be in the 60’s and the afternoon high will reach the 80’s!

Unfortunately these pleasant temps will be accompanied with the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The National Weather Service believes that the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur after 1 PM. Below is a look at what the NAM 4 KM Model is showing at 1 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-06 10.24.47

No severe weather is expected and less than a tenth of an inch of rain is likely between 7 AM Tuesday and 7 AM Wednesday.

fill_98qwbg.gif (GIF Image, 750 × 562 pixels) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-06 10.37.20

Overnight we will become partly cloudy and our chance for showers and thunderstorms will become slight.

Wednesday – Chance For Showers & Thunderstorms – Wake Up 64°, High 83°

Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday…

…Pleasant temps with the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Below is what the GFS model is showing between 7 AM and 1 PM Wednesday.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-06 10.51.13

We will remain mostly cloudy overnight and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will become slight.

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-06 10.54.56

We are keeping an eye on Thursday night/Friday morning because a cold front will move through giving us a chance for strong thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Nashville right on the fringe of the 15% risk for severe weather.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 6, 2015 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-06 10.58.22

We will have more details about the risk for this severe weather threat as we approach Thursday night/Friday morning.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Frosty Easter Morning; Rainy End of the Day

Current Temps and Radar

Wind damage from yesterday:

Tonight/Overnight – Frost Possible

Clear skies will help overnight temps drop into the 30’s. Frost is possible as we wake up Easter morning.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-04 09.59.53

Easter Sunday – Early Morning Frost, Morning Sun, Then Clouds/Rain Arrives – Wake Up 36°, High 67°

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-04 10.09.33

Sunny skies and a warm south wind will give us a beautiful morning.

A warm front will move northward into Nashville. Clouds and a chance of rain late Sunday afternoon and night.

We may even see rain as early as 3 PM, at least the NAM4 thinks so:

Monday – Showers & Thunderstorms Return – Wake Up 51°, High 68°

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will return to start the work week.

Here is a look at the GFS between 7 AM and 1 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-04 10.18.09

We will hold onto a chance for showers and thunderstorms the rest of the week…

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-04 10.24.32

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Severe Thunderstorms (Hail, Wind) Looking More Likely

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Marginal/Slight Risk of Severe T-storms – High: 79°

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Nashville right on the border of a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Here is one way of looking at SPC Categorical Outlooks for severe thunderstorms:

NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 08.40.04

Portions of northern Nashville metro are in the yellow Slight Risk category.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 2, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 08.00.04

The main threats will be hail and strong winds. What this really means is that Davidson and Williamson Counties have between a 5% – 15% chance that severe weather develops and produces greater than 58 MPH wind gusts and hail that is one inch or greater happening within 25 miles of us.

We will have the chance for hit and miss showers all day, but after noon the National Weather Service believes that we could see thunderstorms.

The HRRR Model shows thunder storms firing up around 3 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 08.06.49

The NAM 4KM is keeping us mostly dry… Here is a look at 3 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.17.02

Conditions are are ripe for thunderstorms to develop, so we are leaning towards the HRRR Model. Additionally, the National Weather Service believes that our best chance thunderstorms will be between 4 PM and 7 PM.

Overnight we will hang onto a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front creeps closer to Middle Tennessee.

Rain totals look to be between 0.1″ and 0.5″ here in Nashville.

fill_94qwbg.gif (GIF Image, 750 × 562 pixels) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 08.24.14

The heavier rain will stay north of the Tennessee/Kentucky border.

Friday – Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms – Wake Up: 61°, High: 74°

The cold front will reach Middle Tennessee on Friday and be the catalyst for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has given Middle Tennessee an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.27.25

This means we have a 30% chance for severe thunderstorms producing straight line winds greater than 55 MPH and hail > 1″ within 25 miles of us. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes are also possible.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 2, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.33.29

Our best chance for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and early evening hours.

The NAM 4 KM Model shows thunderstorms developing ahead of the main line of showers and thunderstorms (squall line) at 2 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.39.02

This Model Indicates that the squall line will move overhead around the evening commute.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.41.11

The GFS is in agreement with the NAM 4 KM and shows the most intense rainfall occurring between 1 PM and 7 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.54.34

After 7 PM, any showers that stick around will lose intensity, and will likely not be severe in nature. The line of showers and thunderstorms will be out of out hair and to the southeast of Nashville by midnight.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center believes that rain totals will be between 0.25″ and 1″ of rain from 7 AM Friday through 7 AM Saturday.

fill_98qwbg.gif (GIF Image, 750 × 562 pixels) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 10.04.51

Between 7 AM Thursday – 7 AM Saturday we are expecting between 0.5″ – 1.5″ of rain.

Saturday – The Sun – Wake Up: 42°, High: 60°

Cooler temps and sunny skies will be in store for us on Saturday!

Overnight lows will be in the upper 30’s.

Extended:

extended

Enjoy Saturday and the nice weather during the day on Easter because showers and thunderstorms return to start the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Small Chance of Rain Tuesday

Current Temps and Radar

Overnight we will remain clear and temps will cool into the lower 40’s.

Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Isolated Showers & Thunderstorms Possible After Noon – Wake Up 44°,  High 74°

A warm front will dangle overhead, pumping moisture and allowing for a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms after noon.

Models suggest that the isolated thunderstorms may fire up during the hottest part of the day (1 PM – 3 PM) and stay along or south of I-40 into the evening. Below is a look at what the NAM is showing for 7 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-30 10.51.21

The warm front will move north of Nashville overnight allowing for the slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue throughout the night. Gusty winds are possible with these isolated thunderstorms.

We aren’t sold on rain chances tomorrow. Neither is NWS; they have us down only for a slight chance of rain/storms in the afternoon.

Temps will only drop into the upper 40’s/lower 50’s!

Wednesday –  Partly Sunny, Showers & Thunderstorms possible After Noon  – Wake Up: 47°, High: 74°

As the warm front continues to push north towards the Great Lakes, moisture will continue to be pumped into Middle Tennessee. Afternoon temps in the mid 70’s and ample moisture will combine to give us a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1 PM.

A disturbance will move through overnight giving us a more widespread chance for showers but a lower chance for thunderstorms. Overnight temps will struggle to get below the 60’s.

Weekly Planner: 

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-30 11.08.57

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Hard Freeze Warnings Before Returning To Normal

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Cold Start – High: 47°

The National Weather Service has placed Middle Tennessee under a Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM because today’s morning low temperature is in the mid 20’s.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-28 06.53.07

High pressure will lock in over Middle Tennessee and help temps climb into the upper 40’s under sunny skies.

Radiational cooling will help overnight temps plummet back into the 20’s.

Cold_ Blame Radiational Cooling - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-28 07.15.24

Radiational cooling occurs when heat gained by the surface during the day is lost to outer space overnight because of the lack of moisture and cloud cover. Clouds act like a blanket because they help keep heat near the surface… Tonight will be mostly clear.

Sunday – Hard Freeze Warning – Wake Up: 25°, High: 59°

The day will begin with a morning low in the mid to lower 20’s!

The NWS has issued a Hard Freeze Warning for Middle Tennessee between 1 AM and 10 AM.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-28 06.53.34

The high temp will rebound nicely into the upper 50’s/lower 60’s, but cloud cover will begin to build in from west to east after noon.

Overnight we will have a chance for light showers as a front slides through Nashville. Below is a look at what the GFS is showing between 7 PM and 1 AM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-28 06.51.36

Only between 0.1″ and 0.25″ of rain is expected.

Monday – Seasonal Temps Return – Wake Up: 46°, High: 65°

We will be mostly sunny and temps will return to the seasonal norm in the wake of the front.

The overnight low will only slide into the 40’s.

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-28 07.42.07

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rainy & Colder

Current Temps and Radar

Tonight – Rainy, Getting Colder

Temps are diving into the 40°s right now, and won’t stop falling overnight until they hit 35° early Friday morning.

As for the rain, check out the radar, above. Rain should end well before midnight.

Friday – Much Colder – Wake Up: 33°, High: 50°

Morning low temps will be near freezing and Davidson and Williamson Counties will struggle to reach the 50’s.

A very weak disturbance will move through Middle Tennessee during the day and bring us more clouds and a slight chance for a few light showers. Rain chances are pretty low.

Overnight temps will get below freezing. A Freeze Watch is in effect Friday night through Saturday morning:

Saturday – Cold – Wake Up: 28°, High: 46°

Morning low in the upper 20’s and an afternoon high that will stay in the 40’s. I blame Phil for the return of sub freezing temps.

On the bright side, we will be partly sunny during the afternoon and rain free.

Overnight temps will unfortunately drop below freezing again.

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-26 08.30.54

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

One More Day of 70°s

Current Temps and Radar

Below is what the High Res NAM weather model is showing at 3 AM Wednesday morning.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-24 08.12.25

Wednesday – Gathering Clouds, Slight Chance of Rain/Thunderstorms – Wake Up 57°, High 75°

Enjoy the 70°s, y’all.

We will have the chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, but no severe storms are expected here.

A second weather disturbance will develop and begin moving towards Middle Tennessee during the day.

The best chance for thunderstorms will occur overnight as a potent cold front moves towards Nashville. Below is an image of what the GFS is showing for early Thursday morning between 1 AM  – 7 AM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-24 08.34.10

Thursday – Showers Likely – Wake Up: 58°, High: 63°

Showers will be likely throughout the day as the cold front pushes through Davidson and Williamson Counties. Additionally, a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out!

Overnight, rain chances decrease. After midnight the rain chances will taper off. Below is a look at the GFS between 7 PM – 1 AM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-24 08.48.24

Between 7 AM Tuesday and 7 AM Friday, only 0.5″ of rain is expected in Nashville.

d13_fill.gif (GIF Image, 750 × 562 pixels) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-24 09.01.10

The bulk of the rain fall will stay north of the TN border.

Cold Weekend Temps: 

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-24 08.55.55

BRRR!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Hello Spring

Current Temps and Radar

Spring has sprung!

Sunday – Mostly cloudy – Wake Up 49°, High 66°

We will be mostly cloudy during the day. Rain will pass south of us, but we don’t think we will see anything. Still, we cannot rule it out.

Overnight the cloud cover will decrease and temps will get into the mid 40’s.

Monday – Perfect – Wake Up 44°, High 67°

Nashville will enjoy a warm, sunny and dry day to start the work week.

Overnight we will be partly cloudy with a low reaching the mid 40’s.

Extended:

extended

The chance of showers and thunderstorms creep back into the forecast by midweek.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

So Sprinkly

Current Temps and Radar

Friday – Murk…Slowly Drying Out –  Wake Up 50°, High 60° 

We will hang on to a chance for showers throughout the day, but it appears the best chance for rain will end at 1 PM. Below is a look at the High Res NAM at 4 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-19 09.26.02

Wave goodbye to the rain chances overnight.

We will remain mostly cloudy and temps will dip into the 40’s.

Saturday – Partly Sunny – Wake Up 40°, High 66°

Nashville will be partly sunny, warm and dry!

Temps will drop into the mid 40’s and cloud cover will build back in.

Extended:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.