So Warm!

Current Temps and Radar

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We went 5° above today’s forecast high, hitting 67° on the hourly official check at 2:53 PM this afternoon.

Many times these mild temps are corrected by a massive cold front, capable of setting off severe weather. That’s not going to happen this time. Temps will moderate slowly, day by day, without severe weather.

Tuesday – Partly Sunny; Light Showers Possible Late – Wake Up 41° High 60°

We will be partly sunny and warm for most of the day.

During the afternoon, cloud cover will increase as moisture continues to build into Middle Tennessee ahead of a cold front.

As the cold front pushes through Nashville overnight, we will have the chance for light, garden variety showers. Here is a look at what the GFS is showing between 6 PM and Midnight.

light showers

No big deal.

Wednesday – Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 36°, High 55°

After the passage of the cold front, we will be a few degrees cooler, but still sunny and pleasant. Unlike these guys.

Overnight we will become mostly cloudy as temperatures will drop into the lower 30’s.

Extended:

The “maybe but almost definitely probably not” snow chance, which appeared in this morning’s weather data, is not there this afternoon.

The next “potentially but probably not I don’t believe it” chance of snow is around the beginning of next week when clipper systems are modeled to cruise into Middle and Eastern Tennessee.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Overnight Showers; Win a Coffee

Current Temps and Radar

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Tonight – Clouds Gathering – 9 PM 48°

After midnight, a front will roll a band of light showers through for a few hours.

No worries: After the passage of this front we will remain pleasant!

Sunday – Warm & Sunny – Wake Up 38° High 58°

Despite the passage of the cold front the night before, we will still reach the mid 50’s under mostly sunny skies.

Clear skies will cause our overnight low to dip into the mid 30’s due to radiational cooling.

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr Day – Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 40°, High 56°

This warm trend will continue for most of the work week.

Extended:

Tweet us what this was (please, if you’re a weather nerd, refrain – We Know You Know!) for a free Starbucks coffee. (Let it load, it’s a big GIF, or click here ). First to it, wins. Check Twitter to see if you won.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warm(er) & Sunny (Mostly) Weekend

Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Warming

Today Warming – High 49°

We will warm into the upper 40’s/lower 50’s under sunny skies!

(Editor’s Note: The Intern 2.0 originally had a GIF of some cute rodent. I replaced it with this. Sorry, cute rodent lovers).

A clear night will aid in allowing us to drop to below freezing, but we won’t stay there for long.

Saturday Warmer – Wake Up 29°, High 55° 

A stead south wind and sunny skies will help Nashville reach the mid 50’s during the afternoon.

The southerly wind will also pump in moisture, allowing for a slight chance for garden variety showers overnight.

Sunday – Still Warm – Wake Up 37°, High 54°

We will remain warm and sunny!

This warming trend will continue into the beginning of next week.

So I felt bad for deleting the cute rodent GIF so here’s one of a cat:

Extended:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

9 PM Update. Wintry Shenanigans Tomorrow Morning?

9 PM Update via YouTube. Shirtanly.

 Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Cold

This morning began with a dusting of snow and a few slick spots on secondary roads and bridges/overpasses. Here is a look at I-24 over Murfreesboro Road with ice and a dusting of snow on the bridge.

I-24 over Murfreesboro Road

This is what roads in Williamson County looked like this morning.

Franklin (Williamson County)

(images via @Just1nBruce. Or, stated better, I blame Justin for these images.)

There wasn’t a whole lot of snow/ice on the ground (0.1″), but it was enough for some hazardous driving conditions. So, what happened? Well, it wasn’t advertised in the weather models. Around 4 AM, a little wave in the atmosphere formed at about 5,000 feet, which took the shape of a rolling pin and moved SE over most of Davidson Co and all of Williamson Co. Here’s a shot of it from 5:20 AM:

This was very light snow, but since temps were in the 20°s, it stuck for a while.

Thursday Wintry Precip? – Wake Up 25°, High 41° 

Go back up to the top and watch the YouTube video if you want details on the HRRR model. Both it and the NAM4 models think the snow will happen in southern Kentucky, barely missing us. It also thinks that by the time the precipitation arrives, temperatures at the surface will be to warm to cause any real travel problems. Of course, all this assumes the weather models are correct. We will need to keep an eye on this in the morning.

All that said, NOTE: the chance of wintry weather is better to our NW (Clarksville, Dover). Our chances are relatively low. NWS does not have major/widespread travel concerns, so don’t padlock your garage door and plan to sleep until noon.

After noon we will become mostly sunny with temps in the low 40°s — so any wintry shenanigans should be melting away by then.

We may not update this website tonight, but we will be adding a ton more updated info on Twitter @NashSevereWx. Also, I suggest you watch the local news tonight for local meterologists’ take on this.

Overnight temps will dip back into the mid 20°s under clear skies.

FridayWarming – Wake Up 25°, High 48°

High pressure will settle in overhead and allow sunny skies to warm us up. A high temperature in the upper 40’s on Friday will mark the beginning of a warming trend as we move into the weekend.

Even though we will drop slightly below freezing for the overnight low…We will rebound into the mid 50’s on Saturday.

Extended:

extended

Good bye Blerg :

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Blerg Slowly Leaving

Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Cold!

So we had a little snow today in the World of Wooly Mammoths known as “Joelton.”

Impressive, right! Thanks to @MTNdispatch for those photos.

Overnight — cloudy, with temps dipping into the mid 20’s.

Wednesday One More Day of Blerg – Wake Up 25°, High 38° 

High pressure will begin to sink down into Middle Tennessee from the Great Lakes region. This will help to weaken the Blerg and produce a partly cloudy sky by noon.

Overnight temps will temps will drop into the low/mid 20’s under mostly cloudy skies.

To qualify as a Blerg:

1. Temps in 30°s or below, and

2. No snow, and

3. No sun.

One of our missions is to toss better words into the weather stream. 2013 was Crazy Ivan. 2014 was Snowdome. We’re hoping 2015 is Blerg. Help spread the word.

Thursday – Blerg Out – Wake Up 24°, High 44°

High pressure will dominate and produce mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid 40’s!

Temps will plummet back into the mid 20’s overnight under clear skies. This warming trend will continue for the rest of the week!

Extended:

extended

 

There is Blerg relief on the horizon:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Good Advice from Odessa about the Cold Weekend

Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Very Cold

Tonight Reinforcing Cold Front –  High 28°

A dry cold front will pass through Nashville this afternoon and reinforce the cold air already in place. Despite being mostly sunny, our high temperature are forecast to only top out in the upper 20°s; however, a few locations may report temps in the low 30°s.

Clear skies will help cool us into the low teens. A few low laying areas could even dip into the single digits due to cold air drainage.

cold air drainage

Because cold air is heavy, it will flow like water to the lowest spots and settle there much like water does.

Saturday COLD – Wake Up 1, High 29°

High pressure accompanied by cold arctic air will move into Middle Tennessee and give us another cold/dry day. The morning lows will mostly be in the teens and we will only “warm” into the upper 20’s under sunny skies. Odessa sums up how we all have been feeling about this cold spell.

 

SundayGood/Bad News – Wake Up 20°, High 43°

Good news: A warm southerly wind will return and finally help us get above freezing with temps reaching the lower 40’s after noon.

Bad news: rain is on the way.

Rain is likely Sunday night/overnight/Monday morning.

It appears for the time being we will either be dry and freezing or above freezing and raining. This trend will continue until the latter half of next week when we could finally have a pleasant day.

Extended:

extended

The voodoo land (too far away to be reliable) models are flirting with, or toying with, a possible wintry mix Wednesday night. Don’t hold your breath on this:

Fun with models!

Long Range, we think it’ll warm up:

warmingupinjan15

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Want Dry Weather With Temps Above Freezing? Sorry.

Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Very Cold

Tonight — Temps will fall into the lower 20°s/upper teens.

Friday Reinforcing Cold Front – Wake Up 19°, High 30°

Another cold front will move through Middle Tennessee Friday morning.

Will we get above freezing?

This front will be “dry,” so no precipitation in Williamson and Davidson Counties. Sunny skies will help afternoon temps reach the upper 20°s before temps will return to the low teens.

SaturdayStill Cold – Wake Up 11°, High 30°

Morning temperatures will be in the lower teens. A few locations will likely dip into the single digits.

Our afternoon will be sunny and below freezing once again. Overnight, a “warm” southerly wind will return and temps will be in the 20’s. Temps should finally rise above freezing Sunday before rain arrives Sunday night.

Basically, we aren’t expecting dry weather above freezing anytime soon.

Extended:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

4 Days & 4 Nights Below Freezing

Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

#StupidCold (c: Paul Heggen)

Windy Today

Today – Stupid Cold – Decreasing Temps Throughout Day

The cold front that produced a spotty dusting of snow this morning is gone.

As I write this, arctic air is filing into Middle Tennessee, courtesy of an epic high pressure centered in the Plains, seen here:

21z cold arctic air

A Wind Chill Advisory begins at 3 PM. Temps will fall into the teens and winds will be around 15 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph. Wind chills will be between 0° and -10° until 9 AM tomorrow morning.

(Get it? Stupid cold ^)

We are expected to remain below freezing until Sunday. The last time we were this cold for 4 consecutive days was in 2010 and the longest streak was 12 days set back in 1895.

Thursday COLD – Wake Up 3°, High 24°

We will begin the day with a low very near to 0° and a wind chill as low as -5°.

A southerly wind and sunny skies will help us “warm” into the mid 20°s during the afternoon.

Friday – Still Cold – Wake Up 18°, High 31°

Winds will decrease, so the wind chill will be less of a factor. Mostly sunny skies and southerly winds will help Nashville reach near to the freezing mark (32°) for our high temperature. Overnight the winds will become northerly and push our low into the preteens.

You might consider coping by eating ice cream, embracing and luxuriating in the cold, and fighting cold with more cold.

Extended:

extended

We will remain below or at freezing until Sunday… Unfortunately rain will join the warmer temps.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Frigid Temps, Slight Chance of A Little Snow

Current Temps and Radar

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Note: Updates on snow chances will be found in purple below, and otherwise on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Low 40°s This Afternoon, Then Epic Cold

Windy

Small Chance of Very Little Wednesday Morning Snow

Overnight/Early Thursday Morning — Frigid Temps, Slight Chance of A Little Snow

1.  Frigid Temps and Awful Wind Chills

The National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement and a Hazardous Weather Outlook in anticipation of the bitterly cold temps and subzero wind chills:

prep

After the cold front passes through Wednesday morning, arctic air will move in. Our morning temp of 22° will be the warmest we get. Temps will continuously drop throughout the day. Here is a look at the cold arctic air mass at noon using the GFS-upgrade model.

noon cold

By 5 PM, our temperature will have fallen to around 14°. With winds sustained between 15 – 20 mph (gusting to 35 mph), wind chills during the day will dip as low as -2°. A Wind Advisory may be needed.

Late Wednesday night, temps will continue to fall into the single digits. The north wind will let up some, but the wind chill could get as low as -4°.  If the wind chill gets any colder, the National Weather Service will likely issue a Wind Chill Advisory (-5° or less).

2.  Slight Chance of A Little Light Snow

The arrival of the cold front will bring us a slight chance for light snow Wednesday morning. There may be just enough moisture for a few hours Wednesday morning to “squeeze out” some snow. This is pretty iffy.

For once, surface temperatures won’t be the big IF in a snow forecast. The big if is whether this light blob of snow can make its way down the slide all the way from the N Plains:

Slide

Here’s a tour of the weather models —

NAM4 Model:

9z snow

GFS-upgrade Model:

12z snow

Canadian Model:

12z snow can

The not-pictured Euro model continues with the same theme: very light snow on approach, fizzling out upon arrival and the heavier accumulations staying north of the Tennessee/Kentucky border.

To say the chance of snow is “slight” is accurate. If we do cash in on the slight chance for snow, we expect only a dusting. Tonight, we’ll have a better view of what’s actually going on (rather than what’s modeled to go on).

Afternoon Update: The afternoon data and NWS-Nashville forecast discussion continues to emphasize the “iffy” threat of very little snow Wednesday morning. This is because:

1.  Weather models are consistently showing the potential snowmaker to be a lightweight wuss. Very low moisture content.

2.  The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (which I love) model “has backed way off.” What’s that mean? Remember the slide analogy from the model I posted above. The HRRR doesn’t think the snow will slide it all the way down:

3.  The Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) associated with this system is weak. High PVA correlates with surface low development and upward vertical motion, which is what you want if you want some snow. PVA with this system is pathetic.

NWS-Nashville is going to put our probability of snow at 1 in 5, “but it may very well just end up producing some scattered flurry activity” in northern Middle TN and the plateau.

Sorry, snow fans. Embrace what little hope you have.

Follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx tonight/early tomorrow, and watch local TV, for updated information.

Thursday – Bitterly Cold – Wake Up 4°, High 25°

That’s not a typo…We will begin the day at 4° and only “warm” into the mid 20°s under mostly sunny skies. The trend of stupid cold mornings and COLD afternoons will continue for the rest of the week.

extended

There is growing interest in another system moving in Sunday/Monday from our southwest. Rain is possible, but there has been some support in the models for freezing rain. This will be closely watched.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dusting Late Tue / Early Wed?

Current Temps and Radar

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Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Cold

Windy

TodayCOLD & Sunny – High 33°

Even though Nashville will be sunny and dry, we will struggle to get above freezing during the afternoon.

Looking ahead to cold temps later this week, this morning the National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement.

special weather statement

Here are some more tips before we get into the thick of this COLD snap.

(Editor’s Note: if you need to be told to wear “layers of clothing to protect from the cold weather,” then you must be my 7 year old).

Tuesday – COLD Front – Wake Up 25°, High 43°

A Southerly wind will nudge our high temp into the lower 40’s during the afternoon. FORTIES!!!!

If enough moisture returns to Middle Tennessee during this short window, we cold have a dusting of snow overnight as the big bad arctic cold front pushes through. Overnight temps will be in the lower 20’s!

The NWS forecasts a slight chance for snow from midnight until noon on Wednesday. However, the models are not in agreement. The Canadian and the GFS-upgrade models think there won’t be enough moisture in Williamson and Davidson Counties to produce snow. The European and GFS-legacy models are showing just enough moisture in our area during the passage of the cold front (Midnight until Noon Wednesday) to produce light snow. Here is a look at the GFS showing snow from midnight through 6 AM.

snow

In summary: Temps will be well below freezing all night, so if there is enough moisture in place when the cold front pushes through, we will have a slight chance for a light dusting of snow. Very minimal accumulation would be expected… like powdered sugar on a cake:

Wednesday – Cold Canadian Air – Wake Up 23, High 24°

The epic Canadian airmass will move into Middle Tennessee on a northwest wind and drop our temp throughout the day. Here is another look at the GFS from 6 AM through noon.

cold canadian air

This means the “high” temp will occur in the morning. We’ll hit the teens in the afternoon. With a strong north wind of 10 mph to 20 mph (gusting to 25 mph), the wind chill will hover around 0° during the afternoon.

Overnight temps will nose dive

into single digits. Our low is expected to bottom out at 4° early Thursday morning! Wind chills will be below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for Wednesday night into Thursday.

We will remain below freezing until we crawl into the mid 30’s on Friday.

There is more talk of potential rain/snow over the weekend. Right now, this looks really iffy. The forecast is too variable to make for a worthwhile discussion.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.