Pleasant Couple of Days

Current Temps and Radar

Tuesday – Cloudier, Cooler, Still OK –  Wake Up 54°, High 65° 

South winds Monday turn north. That’ll keep us in the 60°s.

Wednesday – Rain Returns in the Evening – Wake Up 39°, High 54°

A disturbance originating from Mexico will move into Middle Tennessee throughout the day and bring light to moderate rainfall.

The GFS depicts the start of the rain arriving Wednesday right around sundown:

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-16 10.15.18

Rain chances will continue for the rest of the work week.

A quick review of the GFS and Euro models shows no severe weather shenanigans for the next 10 days. There’s a bit of a low pressure center trying to form on Day 10, but that’s so far away it’s smart to ignore it…and keep watching.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Perfection

Current Temps and Radar

The rain is gone. Here comes 69°, 75°, and 70°.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-15 08.13.57

Celebrate!

Today – Sunny – High 70°

High pressure will continue to build throughout the day, meaning we will be sunny with temps in the 70°s. We have finally found beautiful Spring-like weather!

Tonight we will remain clear and temps will dip down into the 40’s.

Monday – Warm & Sunny – Wake Up 42°, High 75°

Sunny and 75!

Overnight temps will only drop into the 50’s.

Tuesday – Partly Sunny – Wake Up 53°, High 70°

Cloud cover will begin to build in but temps will still reach the 70°s.

Overnight we will be mostly cloudy and temps will drop into the 40°s.

Rain chances will return by Wednesday as a low pressure disturbance makes it into Nashville.

Extended:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Flood Watch

Current Temps and Radar

Tonight – Rain

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch until 7 AM Saturday because an additional 1″ – 2″ of rain is likely.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-13 10.10.22

Overnight rain will remain likely while temps will only drop into the 50’s.

Saturday – One More Day Of Sog. Off & On Rain – Wake Up 56°, High 65°

Rain will remain likely throughout the day.

A line of showers coupled with a cold front will begin to march through Middle Tennessee during the late afternoon/early evening. Here is a look at the NAM High Res at 1 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-13 10.55.22

After the passage of the front, showers will end and temps will drop into the 40’s.

Sunday – Sunny & Dry – Wake Up 46°, High 65°

We will finally shake this rainy trend!

We will be mostly sunny with temps in the mid 60’s!

Overnight temps will drop into the lower 40’s under mostly clear skies.

Extended:

extended

 This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Tonight; Flood Watch Friday

Current Temps and Radar

Tonight

Rain chances increase tonight. It’s likely after midnight, at least according to the HRRR model.

Friday (13th) – Rain Arrives — Flood Watch – Wake Up 54°, High 63°

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Williamson and Davidson Counties between 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-12 06.08.39

Between 1″ – 1.5″ of  additional rain is possible through Saturday morning.

A low pressure system will move northward from the Louisiana coast and push showers into middle Tennessee. Below is what the GFS shows for 7 AM on Friday.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-12 05.53.51

The models are still trending towards a more western track of the low pressure system. This would give us less total rainfall, but still alot.

Lets hope we get lucky enough to have a western track of the low pressure system.

Rain chances will remain likely overnight.

Saturday – Beginning To Dryout – Wake Up 55°, High 69°

The NWS believes that we will begin to dryout and gives us a “chance” for rain on Saturday.

Overnight we will continue to shake off this rainy trend as our rain chances become “slight”!

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-12 06.51.04

60’s and sunny is just around the corner!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

One More Night of Refreezing

Current Temps and Radar

We haven’t exactly had the best start to March. But then again, three years ago we had a warm first week of March and a supercell dropped millions of dollars of hail damage on us.

Tonight — Refreezing

We’ll dip below freezing as soon as the sun goes down, if not before. Stuff going to freeze again overnight, and refreeze hard: temps will be in the low 20°s overnight.

Saturday – Melting & Spring – Wake Up 20°, High 50°

Spring like weather inches closer (sounds like a movie preview eh?). Temps in the upper 40’s/lower 50’s, plus sunny skies, will melt the remaining snow/ice in all except the most shaded areas.

Overnight temps will be in the mid to lower 30’s under sunny skies.

(or, just expect your phone to do it all by itself)

Sunday – Little Warmer; Mostly Cloudy  – Wake Up 30°, High 54°

We will reach the low to mid 50’s under mostly cloudy skies.

Overnight we will have a slight chance for showers but our low temperature will remain above freezing

Extended: Warmer and Wet

We will continue to warm, but with chances for showers most of next week. Those higher temps come at a price.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

#RIPSnowdome

Current Temps and Radar

 

#RIPSnowdome

It was pronounced this morning:

The final tally was 2.9″ of sleet/snow accumulation at BNA.

…This marks the end of our friend and trusty protector against the winter shenanigans. If y’all have any kind word you would like to share for our departed snowdome tweet them out using #RIPSnowdome.

From @omeganon

meredith duke parthenon

From @blakeamundell 

Don’t forget that driving in these conditions is very dangerous because we have ice on the roads being covered up by snow.

Mt. Juliet Police

(Mt. Juliet Police)

Avoid driving if possible.

Today – Clearing & Cold – High 25°

We will begin to clear as we move through the afternoon, but temps will not exceed the mid 20’s. This means the snow/ice on the ground is not going anywhere. The National Weather Service believes that we will have major travel problems until Friday afternoon.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-05 09.42.13

A few creeks/streams are up. Here’s the Harpeth River in Franklin. This tweet was picked up by NWSNashville, then The Weather Channel.

NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-05 10.55.47

Turn around don’t drown!

turn around don;t drown - Google Search - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-05 10.58.29

Tonight, our low temps will dip into the single digits with a north wind at 5 mph – 15 mph. Wind chill values will get as low as -5°!!!

This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Wind Chill Advisory between midnight and 6 AM tomorrow morning for Davidson County.

This weather is not fit for man nor beast!

man nor beast

Friday – Mostly Sunny & Remaining Icy  – Wake Up 8°, High 31°

The afternoon high temperature will get near the freezing mark under mostly sunny skies. Because the temps will not get above freezing the ice and snow will mostly stay in place.

Overnight temps will temps will drop into the upper teens.

Saturday – The Thaw  – Wake Up 18°, High 47°

Sunny skies and a high temp in the upper 40’s will cause the ice to finally melt! Just as Vanilla Ice quickly vanished from the music scene years ago…

… So will our ice problem.

Temps will drop into the upper 20’s overnight.

Extended:

extended

Warmer weather is on the way!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Here It Comes. ETAs, Impacts, Travel & More

Current Temps and Radar

NOTE at 330 PM — This post has generally good info, but it will quickly get old tonight. You can find updated info @NashSevereWx on Twitter and by turning on local TV meteorologists tonight.

Rain

NWS cancelled the Flood Watch at 11 AM. We’re still going to get a LOT of rain, but flooding is becoming less of a concern.

Getting Cold

At 4 AM this morning, we were in the 60°s. An hour later, the temp dropped into the low 50°s. Temps will continue to plummet throughout the day.

By noon we will be in the 40°s, and between 6 PM and midnight we will dip below freezing. Wind chills will be particularly and increasingly brutal as we proceed through the afternoon and especially through Thursday and Friday morning.

When we hit the freezing mark the real shenanigans will begin.

Ice, Sleet & Snow

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Davidson County (begins at 6 PM) and (as of 11:30 AM) Williamson County (begins at 9 PM) until noon tomorrow.

snow totals snoe

A Winter Storm Warning means that 3″+ of snow/sleet is expected in 12 hours or less.

ETAs

When will this all start?

Changeover from rain to freezing rain/sleet will occur first in the NW, then sweep SE, as the evening progresses.

Before the changeover, travel is OK.

About 2 hours after the changeover, travel will become hazardous, and become increasingly hazardous, with ice on trees, road signs, and raised surfaces first, and then on roads. Roads are relatively warm, so we won’t see immediate freezing.

Models suggest roughly the same changeover times as shown above:

1.  The NAM4 model: changeover between 9 PM and midnight.

namm

2.  The HRRR is showing the changeover to be between 6 PM and 9 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-04 08.26.14

3.  The GFS is under the impression that the change over will occur between 6 PM and midnight. That’s not too helpful. GFS is a low resolution, high range model.

gfs sleet

Follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx and other reliable weather sources. We’ll be tracking the actual reports of ice as the event moves from the NW to the SE. These reports are the “real” timing of this event. Don’t assume the above changeover ranges will be correct.

At the changeover times, rain will start to mix with freezing rain, then freezing rain will mix with sleet, then a few hours later (maybe longer) sleet will mix with snow, then eventually it will be all snow as we cruise past midnight into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Travel will become hazardous soon after the changeover.

All models agree that the transition to snow will begin after midnight. #Snowdome is under attack, and will probably fall after more than 4 years of loyal service.

The warm air layer aloft can be seen fighting back on this forecast sounding.

#snowdome

This will cause falling snow flakes to either completely melt and then refreeze at the surface (freezing rain), or partially melt and refreeze as they are falling to the surface (sleet). The longer the warm pocket of air holds out the more freezing rain and sleet we will have. In fact, the further south you go, the more likely you will see freezing rain/ice; 0.25″ of ice is likely in Southern Middle TN, which only really concerns S Williamson County (and just a little).

After looking closely at the forecast sounding produced NAM/GFS BUFKIT it is looking like the snow will not begin until 3 AM. Here’s the NAM data for you fellow weather nerds:

namm buf

At this point the warm air layer will only be 1,000 ft thick and 1.2 degrees C.

The GFS and the NAM are both showing mostly snow after 3 AM.

In Summary: The rain will transition into freezing rain/sleet between 6 PM and midnight. After midnight the wintry mix will begin to transition into snow. After 3 AM the precipitation will become mostly snow. We will have a chance for snow until noon on Thursday. 

Accumulations

Right now the National Weather Service believes that areas north of I-40 and west of I-65 will likely pick up 2″ – 5″ of sleet/snow. North of I-40 and east of I-65 will have a chance to accumulate between 2″ – 4″ of snow and sleet. South of I-40 will likely only pick up 1″ – 3″ of sleet/snow.

snow totals snoe

Even with 1″ to 3″ of snow/sleet, roads are going to be a mess.

The Canadian and the NAM are in agreement with the NWS totals give Nashville between 2″ – 5″ of snow. Below is a look at the Canadian model snow totals.

can

The GFS and the Euro believe that we will accumulate much more snow than what the NWS thinks. According to these models between 5″ – 10″ of snow possible, but this map does not account for sleet and should be discredited — I would cut those accumulations by half, maybe even two-thirds.

gfs a lot

Both counties are expected to face “major travel impacts from Wednesday night through Friday afternoon” because “temperatures are expected to remain below the freezing mark Thursday and much of Friday.” We don’t expect relief Thursday because when the snow ends just before noon Thursday, freezing temps and clouds will prevent melting.  Some improvement in road conditions is expected to begin Friday afternoon. Most areas — especially secondary and shaded roads — will not see meaningful improvement in travel conditions until Saturday afternoon, when we reach the 40°s with sunshine.

extended

Melting will begin Saturday and last into Sunday. By Sunday, the high is expected to be 50°.

Consult multiple reliable sources for weather information multiple times as the weather community continues to ingest fresh model data to define and refine ETAs and accumulations.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here. Updated information is often posted there and is not reflected on this website.

Wednesday’s Winter Storm (& Announcing a New Intern!)

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Back & Forth – High 4

The cold front that moved through this morning and brought us a little rain has moved to the southeast of Williamson and Davidson County. This afternoon we will get into the mid 40’s and remain rain free.

Clouds will increase this afternoon as the cold front becomes a warm front and moves north into Middle Tennessee.

Rain chances increase mainly after midnight as the warm front moves overhead. This front will cause temps to rise.

Tuesday – Rain – Wake Up 48°, High 63°

A Flood Watch may be necessary to account for all the rain on the way, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

A low pressure system will slide into the Great Lakes Region while a trailing cold front will approach Nashville. This will cause (mostly hit/some miss) rain chances to be likely for Tuesday. Winds will increase to 15 mph – 25 mph during the afternoon. When it rains it pours…

…It is going to be hard to enjoy afternoon high temps in the lower 60’s while it is raining cats and dogs. A few thunderstorms are possible BUT severe weather is not expected!

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting that Nashville could acquire between 1″ – 2″ of rain on Tuesday.

fill_98qwbg.gif (GIF Image, 750 × 562 pixels) - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-02 10.01.16

Wednesday – Wow

Timing subject to change, but for right now we think:

  • 12:01 AM 59° and pouring
  • 6 AM 49° and raining
  • Noon 36° changeover beginning, a little freezing rain and a little more sleet
  • 3 PM 31° snow
  • 6 PM 26° more snow
  • Midnight 23° still snowing

Models indicate a large amount of sleet and snow, but putting a total on it right now is difficult. Conservatively, 3″ to 5″ of sleet and snow is possible. This could go up or down, but right now, that’s the best thinking.

Let’s go back over the time line.

Below is a look at what the GFS is showing on Wednesday morning.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-02 10.17.30

The National Weather Service believes that by noon a cold front will push through and slam much colder air into Nashville. This is about the time that we will begin to transition into a wintry mix.

NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-02 10.08.44

After noon we will have a period of sleet and freezing rain before transitioning into snow. Below is an image of the GFS during the afternoon.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-02 10.24.58

The National Weather Service believes that we will transition into snow late Wednesday afternoon/early evening.

NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-02 10.09.33

NWS is forecasting this to be a mainly snow event where we could potentially pic up several inches of accumulation.

National Weather Service Text Product Display - Mozilla Firefox 2015-03-02 10.31.33

I am wary to give an exact accumulation total yet (Editor’s Note: so was NWS-Nashville during this morning’s 11 AM conf call), but the #Snowdome will be put to the test once again, because 1″+ looks very possible.

Impacts to travel are expected to be “major.”

Lingering flurries are possible Thursday morning before becoming clear and cold. Very little melting is expected Thursday.

More details to come as this event gets closer. Consult multiple reliable weather sources multiple times. ETAs and accumulations should change as we get nearer to the event. Follow us @NashSevereWx for updated/additional information.

Extended:

extended

Editor’s Note: In other news, The Intern 2.0 is graduating in May. He’s not leaving us yet. To prepare, we interviewed several excellent applicants to succeed him. Today we announce we’ve offered Kaiti Leachman the opportunity, and she has accepted! She’ll be our third intern. She’s going to be awesome. You’re really going to like her. Learn more about her here.

If you want to thank The Intern 2.0, he has asked that you consider supporting this. More info on that here.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warming Up. Wet Next Week. Storms. Snow?

Current Temps and Radar

Overnight . . .

. . . we will become mostly cloudy with temps dipping into the lower 20’s.

Saturday – Warming – Wake Up 24°, High 44°

Winds will slowly shift from northerly to southerly throughout the day. This means clouds, with temps to reach the 40’s!

The National Weather Service gives Middle Tennessee a slight chance for showers overnight

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-27 10.41.17

Sunday – Warmer & Rainy – Wake Up 35°, High 52°

Rain chances will continue into Sunday, with temps reaching the 50’s!

We expect rain to start during the late afternoon/early evening hours, lasting through the overnight hours.

Raining . . .

&

The GFS is showing a line of heavy showers moving through overnight into Monday morning.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-27 10.38.39

Extended:

Lots of rain is in our future …But so are temps in the mid 60’s!

Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday, but it’s way too soon to say whether they may be severe.

Next week will be wet. Really wet. Expecting over 2″ of rain through Wednesday night.

Also, there’s a small chance of snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. NWS summed it up this way: “We could very well go from highs in the upper 60°s Tuesday…to a low in the teens with wintry precip by Thursday morning.”

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dry Until The Weekend

Current Temps and Radar

The #Snowdome lives:

Even with the additional snow overnight the airport only had 0.5″ of snow accumulate from this event.

Since BNA didn’t get 1″ of snow the #snowdome lives and the streak continues!

It’s Been This Long Since We Got 1″ of Snow Countup

Not to rub it in but Starkville, Mississippi (where I attend college) had well over 1″ of snow yesterday… This is what life looks like without the snow dome.

Snow - weathermanbobs@gmail.com - Gmail - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-26 10.07.45

&

Snow - weathermanbobs@gmail.com - Gmail - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-26 10.08.11

For your amusement:

Today – Thawing & No Worry Flurries –  High 36°

The little bit of snow last night has caused a few slick spots across Middle Tennessee.

NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-26 10.18.26

Temps will crawl above freezing and help melt the remainder of the snow and ice off the roads.

After noon Nashville will have a slight chance for some no worry flurries.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-26 10.23.35

At most a dusting is possible.

The overnight temperature will slip into the teens under a mostly cloudy sky.

Friday – Cold & Partly Sunny – Wake Up 18°, High 29°

Despite being partly sunny temps will stay below freezing throughout the day!

Overnight we will become mostly cloudy and temps will dip into the teens.

Saturday – Getting Warmer  – Wake Up 19°, High 41°

We will be partly sunny and temps will get into the 40’s!

The temperature will stay above freezing overnight.

Extended:

extended

Temps will increase over the weekend, but unfortunately so will our rain chances.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.