#ThanksSnowbama + The Cold & Maybe A Little Snow Continues

Current Temps and Radar

Thanks a lot #Snowbama:

It is clear that the #Snowdome is not dead and the only one to blame for its resilience is #snowbama.

thanks snow bama

This morning at 7 AM the National Weather Service was forecasting between 1″ – 4″ of SNOW in Nashville.

1-4 inches

By 10:30 AM the NWS revised the snow totals to ICE totals of between 1/4″ – 1/2″.

ice now

The reason lies in the hands of #snowbama flipping on the switch to the #snowdome.

A warm layer of air was present at 5,000 feet and partially melted the falling snowflakes.

snowdome sounding

It then refroze and became sleet as it neared the surface.

In addition, the track of the low pressure system was originally though to move south of I-20. Below is an image of the model run from Saturday (14th) looking at where the position of the low would be at noon on Monday.

low further

The surface analysis taken from noon today shows the low north of I-20…

surface map nash

../which is further north than the models originally thought.

In a nutshell: The difference between over and inch of snow and less than half an inch of ice was a thin layer of warm air at 5,000 feet and the center of low pressure moving just a little further north.


Tonight – Wintry Precip Ending & Getting Cold – Tonight Teens

The National Weather Service believes that our chance for sleet/snow will end tonight at 9 PM. All the models are in agreement that the threat for more precip will be over before 9 PM. Below is an image of the High Res NAM at the said time.

NAM Wintry

The precipitation will have ended, but temps plummeting into the teens over night will cause the roads to refreeze and cause very hazardous driving conditions.

ice ice

This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue an Ice Storm Warning until 9 AM tomorrow morning.

It would not be wise to attempt to drive tonight of tomorrow morning.

Tuesday – Mostly Sunny & Cooler – Wake Up 13°, High 28°

We will begin the day with ice on the roads and temps in the teens! Again, we will have an Ice Storm Warning in effect until 9 AM.

Partial sunshine, temps in the the upper 20’s, and road crews diligently working to clear the ice will help with travel conditions in the afternoon.

We will have a chance for snow flurries to begin again during the late afternoon and continue throughout Tuesday night. The GFS has the snow showers approaching Middle Tennessee between 6 PM and midnight.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-16 20.12.06

Temps will drop into the Teens once again overnight!

Wednesday – Flurries & Getting Colder – Wake Up 11°, High 24°

We will have a chance for flurries all day as a disturbance moves through Middle Tennessee. The GFS and NAM both have off and on flurries all day. Additionally, they both show the light snow stopping Tuesday night. Below is what the GFS is showing at noon.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-02-16 20.25.13

Over half an inch is expected…If the #Snowdome has nothing to say about it. Be very cautious while driving because if any ice does remain on the roads (mostly but not limited to elevated surfaces), the dusting of snow could hide it from sight.

Overnight we will become mostly clear and a VERY COLD AIR MASS will blow in. Temperatures will drop below 0° Fahrenheit and near the record low Thursday morning.

The very cold and snowy pattern will continue into the end of the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.