Here Comes The Sun (And Maybe a Few Sprinkles)

Here comes the sun,here comes the sun, And I say

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Warmest Day of the Week; Partly Sunny; Brief/Drive-By Sprinkles – High 54°

The sun will peek through a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

An overnight disturbance will swing through Middle Tennessee. This will give us overcast skies and a very slight chance for a few sprinkles during rush hour and beyond. This will be very light, if any, precip.

A dusting of snow is possible far away to the east of Nashville, in the Upper Cumberland Plateau.

Davidson and Williamson Counties are not expected to have any snow.

To repeat:

Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, but Colder – Wake Up 37°, High 42°

Brace yourself for the sun!

Winds will become northerly (10 mph – 15 mph, with a 20 mph gust) and usher in cooler air.

Wednesday – Cool & Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 32°, High 42°

A north wind will continue to push cooler air into Nashville, but we will remain mostly sunny!

Extended Forecast:

extended

Lows in the 20°s and highs in the mid/upper 40°s will round out the work week.

Finally, the temp trend over the next few weeks (aka Forecast Voo-Doo Land) looks to be without any super-cold days:

Random gif:

This website is only a part of the ongoing weather conversation on Twitter @NashSevereWx, which you can find here.

This Week: Sunnier, Chillier

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Monday – Mostly Cloudy; Becoming Partly Sunny – Wake Up 38°, High 55°

You may remember this thing called the

The sun has many uses. One is that it helps alleviate seasonal affective disorder, which is the number one reason people move to California (BTW, the number two reason is getting into fights with close friends about who has the keys to your apartment). Another use is that it helps lift temps.

The sun is not a

It’s actually a miasma of incandescent plasma.

Will see see it today? We aren’t sure.

“DON’T TELL ME ABOUT THE SUN AND THEN TELL ME IT’S GOING TO BE CLOUDY!”

Sorry, Bert. Clouds are arriving Sunday night. They should linger Monday morning, then shove off in time for the afternoon.

This Week – Dry, Normal Temps

There is really no reason to break down the forecast day by day. It all looks basically the same. As you probably noticed from the above meteogram, there is no rain in the forecast.

It means this:

The only thing of note in the weather pattern for the entire eastern United States is this low-pressure system moving up the Atlantic seaboard during the middle of the week. These things spin counterclockwise, and may spread some light moisture into East Tennessee, but we are not expecting anything here in Davidson/Williamson.

This website is only a part of the ongoing weather conversation on Twitter @NashSevereWx, which you can find here.

Drier & Colder

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cooling – High 56°

A cold front coupled with showers and thunderstorms moved through Middle Tennessee last night/early this morning and dropped a good amount of rain.

Davidson County:

rain totals davidson

Williamson County:

rain totals williamson

Most places accumulated between 1.5″ and 2″ of rain.

Overcast skies will build in overnight.

Sunday – Partly Sunny, Chilly North Breeze – Wake Up 37° (Wind Chill 30°), High 50°

The sun!!!!

IMG_0178.GIF

Way.

Monday – Partly Sunny – Wake Up 37°, High 54°

Middle Tennessee will remain rain free with a high temp in the mid 50’s.

Mostly cloudy skies will slowly become partly cloudy as the day progresses.

Extended Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

Rain on Tonight’s Parade

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

TodayGrinch Storm – High 66°

A warm front has moved through Middle Tennessee late this morning, which is giving us a chance for hit/miss showers until tonight’s Grinch Storm (disturbance moving out of the Southern Plains) makes it to Nashville late this afternoon / early evening… Just in time for the Nashville Christmas Parade.

nashville xmas parade

Schedule of Events

6:30 p.m.
Mayor’s Tree Lighting festivities begin at Public Square in front of the courthouse

Immediately following: Fireworks

7:00 p.m.
Parade start

2014 Parade Route:

Note this is a rain-or-shine event. The weather will not be severe.

Two weather models have ETAs:

NAM4 Model

According to this model, the Grinch Storm will be on our door steps by 5 PM.

23z NAM sim rad

Rain will continue all night until Saturday morning.

HRRR Model

The HRRR is showing the Grinch Storm moving into Nashville at 4 PM.

22z HRRR sim rad

Again, the rain will stick around until Saturday morning.

The GFS and Euro models generally agree.

Here’s a regional current radar loop:

Bottom Line

It’s going to rain this afternoon/tonight until tomorrow morning. We may even see a few innocent, no-worry thunderstorms. You will need rain gear, but note: the temp will be in mid-to-low 60°s the whole time. So, not a cold rain.

Saturday – Cold Front; End of Rain – Wake Up & High 57°

A cold front will push through Middle Tennessee early Saturday morning behind the Grinch Storm.The NAM shows the line of showers accompanying the cold front to our SE by 8 AM.

14z nam

This will usher in a cooler and drier air throughout the day. Our high temperature will be reached during the morning and then temps will drop throughout the day.

From 12 PM to 6 PM temps will drop from the lower 50’s to the lower 40’s.

Sunday – Cool & Mostly Sunny – Wake Up 37°, High 52°

As cooler and drier air continues to filter in, we will become mostly sunny during the afternoon.

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

The Grinch Storm (-14) vs. The Christmas Parade

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cloudy & Showers Possible – High 55°

We will have scattered showers off/on before noon, and then we dry out the rest of the day.

However, overnight, a warm front will be moving on in from the south. That means rain Friday.

Friday – The Grinch Storm – Wake Up 52°, High 66°

2014 Parade Route:

The Parade festivities start at 6:30 PM. The actual parade starts at 7 PM. Details.

Editor’s Note: Frequent/Long Time readers and Twitterers may recall more than a few rants about naming winter storms. I think a TV channel naming winter storms is a bad idea, and I usually make hilarious-in-my-mind-only jokes like “Hey! I’ve decided to name today’s thunderstorms ‘thunderstorms.’ Snow tomorrow (when we used to get snow, lol, RIP Snow) we will call ‘snow.’ And rain, I don’t know, how about we call that ‘rain.'” Stuff like that. 

This week we learned you can purchase naming rights to European weather systems, which I suppose really isn’t different than what should be called “Titans Stadium” being called “L.P. Field.” I get it. If you want us to name stuff, you have to pay for the rights. Advertising 101.

So, in order to achieve Maximum Hypocrisy, and because I think it conveys a weather message, I’m naming the weather system bringing the rain we expect to see for Friday’s Christmas Parade “The Grinch Storm.”

Revelers may recall The Grinch Storm also arrived in time to cancel last year’s parade, but that was due to a Winter Weather Advisory, which was at least a Christmassy way of doing it.

Not this year. By 6 AM Friday, a warm front will have lifted over us, like a warm blanket your mom used to put over you when tucking you in on a cold night.

Clouds will pile in, and moisture will begin to pour into Middle Tennessee from the SW.

According to the NAM4 Model

A few hours before the parade, a downpour:

We may even see a few thunderstorms, but nothing strong or severe.

However, the NAM4 thinks there may be a break in the rain, or at least a shift from steady to off/on rain, around parade time. By 3 AM, a cold front will be shoving more rain across Middle TN:

So, there is hope here.

GFS Model

This model thinks it’ll rain, except its timing is about 6 hours later than the NAM4, although it’s hard to say considering the GFS has a lower temporal resolution than the NAM4. Still, looks wet. Just not as wet as NAM4.

Euro Model

Like the GFS, it also has a low temporal resolution, but it too thinks we will see rain during parade time, just less of it when compared to the NAM4.

Bottom Line

Rain is likely tomorrow night. We may even see a few innocent, no-worry thunderstorms. You will need rain gear, but note: the temp will be in mid-to-low 60°s the whole time. So, not a cold rain.

You might want to check back with us tomorrow morning. We’ll have the benefit of radar trends and the HRRR model, which will help us resolve some of the timing disputes in the models we see right now.

Saturday – Cold Front; Rain Ending – Wake Up 57°, High 58°

A cold front will make its way through Middle Tennessee during the early morning hours, producing a little rain early, then clearing us out sometime around noon.

The NAM shows the line of showers associated with cold front over Nashville at 3 AM. Below is a regional and zoomed in look.

9z sim rad

9z sim rad zoom

After noon (plus or minus a few hours), the showers will have pushed off to the SE… Leaving us cooler and dry!

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting between 1″+ of rain between 6 AM Thursday and 6 AM Sunday.

qpf 1-3

Most of this rain will fall Friday PM / Saturday AM.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

Update on Rain Chances

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cloudy & Cool – High 49°

A weak cold front has moved through Middle Tennessee and will continue to sag to the southeast throughout the day. This will usher in cooler and drier air. The NAM shows the cooler air into Nashville by 3 PM.

21z 2m temp

Due to this cold front, our high temperature will only rise a few degrees above our low (44° F) from this morning. Additionally, the sun could peak through the clouds because of drier air mixing in.

Overnight, the cloud cover will return, and with it, a slight chance for showers.

The National Weather Service is predicting a slight chance for showers to begin after 7 PM, which is the same time from the HRRR model thinks we will see them.

Thursday – Showers Possible – Wake Up 38°, High 54°

Thursday will begin with morning hit/miss garden variety showers. The High Res NAM is showing scattered showers beginning in Davidson and Williamson Counties around 5 AM.

11z sim rad

The NWS believes the bulk of the activity will occur after 7 AM. We will hold onto the slight chance for showers during the afternoon and into the evening, but those will be more isolated.

Overnight, the winds will shift and become southerly. This will usher in a warmer and more moist air mass ahead of a disturbance.

Friday & Saturday – Rain Arrives – Highs 64° Friday & 59° Saturday

The disturbance will be ringing our doorbell

by the afternoon. The NAM’s Simulated Radar shows the showers reaching us by 3 PM.

21z sim rad

The showers will continue overnight into Saturday morning… Which is when the heaviest rain is forecast to fall. The NAM is showing the most intense showers around 6 AM.

12z sim rad sat

Rain will continue to fall until late Saturday afternoon.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting between 1″ to 1.5″ of accumulated rain between 6 AM Wednesday and 6 AM Monday!

qpf 5 day

Most of this rain will fall Friday PM/ Saturday AM. The Euro is showing 1″ – 1.3″ of rain during this time frame!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

Wet Start to the Weekend

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Wednesday – Fog Early, Cloudy & Drizzly – Wake Up 43°, High 53°

Fog is likely in the early morning hours.

After the fog mixes out, expect mostly cloudy skies, and maybe a passing light shower or two. No washout or other ruinous rainfall is expected. NWS only has 0.02″ of rain forecast.

A high temp in the low-to-mid 50°s is normal for December 3.

Thursday – Overcast – Wake Up 38°, High 54°

Almost identical to Wednesday’s clouds and a chance of very, very little rain. Dewpoint depressions shouldn’t be as pronounced, so maybe we won’t have fog to contend with in the morning. It will be a little chillier in the morning, though.

Friday & Saturday – Rain Arrives – Highs 63° Friday & 59° Saturday

A storm system over the Central Plains on Friday will arrive Friday night, providing a good chance of rain lasting into Saturday.

This rain should last into Saturday. From the GFS-b model, the rain should hang around until dark:

Just under 1″ total of rain is expected.

We begin clearing out Sunday. Sunshine should return Monday & Tuesday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

 

 

Back & Forth

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Over the next few days, a weak front will oscillate back and forth over Middle Tennessee, bringing us chances for light rain with temps above seasonal norms.

Tuesday – Cloudy & Showers Possible – High 50°

The cold front that marched through yesterday lost its mojo, and is currently sitting between Tuscaloosa and Chattanooga.

This afternoon into the evening, a southwesterly wind will push the weak front back north of Middle Tennessee. This means warmer temps and the chance for off/on light showers all day.

Wednesday – Slight Chance Of Showers – Wake-Up 44°, High 56°

A low pressure system positioned over the Great Lakes will push the front south of us once again!

Don’t fear: Temps will remain above average and we will only have a slight chance for light off/on showers as the front nears. The best chance for rain will be during the morning hours through the mid-afternoon. Overnight we will likely be dry.

Thursday – Showers Possible – Wake-Up 42°, High 53°

A disturbance will approach from the east-southeast and cause the weak front to once again march north through Davidson and Williamson Counties. This will usher in warmer temps and the chance for off/on showers.

The front will have completely moved through Middle Tennessee late Thursday night into Friday Morning.

Despite rain chances every day, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center thinks we will see less than an inch of accumulated rain between 6 AM Tuesday and 6 AM Friday:

qpf 1-3

Extended:

extended

The disturbance will likely arrive to Nashville between 6 AM – 10 AM on Friday and give us a good soaking Friday night into Saturday morning.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

That Was Cold

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

We got pretty cold pretty fast today. At 8 AM it was 62°. The cold front arrived, and as I write this, it’s 42°. Expect wind chills to dip into the upper 30°s tonight as off/on light rain continues.

So far, only 0.15″ of rain has fallen. Current radar:

Tuesday – Cloudy, Periods of Light Rain – Wake Up 40°, High 55°

More off/on light rain will continue under cloudy skies, but we should see less rain Tuesday than we have seen today and will see overnight.

By Tuesday night, the winds will shift and blow from the South, ushering in above-normal temperatures for the first week of December. Don’t get too excited, this won’t be the return of flip-flop weather.

On Wednesday, another cold front arrives, delivering another slight chance of just a little rain.

This cold front will be so weak,

it won’t even cut our temps to below-normal for the first week of December.

The next meaningful rain chance will arrive Friday afternoon/evening, when rain expected to start, and last through at least the first part of Saturday.

Tomorrow marks the return of The Intern 2.0, and the end of GIFs like this:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.

The Cold Front Is Here. Now What?

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

As you can see in the above meteogram, rain is in the forecast for the next few days, but it’ll be more “off” than “on” rain, and it’ll be light.

If you’re thinking “it’s December, there’s rain, and a cold front, maybe some snow?” Nah. Still too warm.

(The Intern 2.0 is not here to make sense of today’s GIFs. Sorry).

The SE-moving cold front arrived just before lunch today (at 10 AM) . . .

. . . delivering gradually cooler/colder temperatures (20° difference). We reached our high temperature for today earlier this morning.

Above average temps will prevail for the rest of the week, but it’ll be drizzly and cloudy for most of it.

Off & On light rain will continue today through Tuesday. This image at 6 AM Tuesday is a decent representation of what to expect during the next 36 hours or so.

Wednesday, a warm front arrives, sending high temps to 56° Wednesday, 55° Thursday, and 60° Friday.

Despite how rainy the above graphic looks, the rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday are very slight and light.

The next legit chance of rain arrives Friday afternoon/evening, as seen here:

This GFS model keeps about a half-inch of rain, maybe more, in Middle Tennessee until sundown Saturday.

The European model has an almost identical solution, which is bad news for outdoor plans Friday night and Saturday. However, we remain five days away from this event, so you should not take this as gospel, but merely use it for guidance. A lot can, and probably will, change with this forecast.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You can find us here.