Forecast Blogs

The Grinch Storm (-14) vs. The Christmas Parade

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cloudy & Showers Possible – High 55°

We will have scattered showers off/on before noon, and then we dry out the rest of the day.

However, overnight, a warm front will be moving on in from the south. That means rain Friday.

Friday – The Grinch Storm – Wake Up 52°, High 66°

2014 Parade Route:

The Parade festivities start at 6:30 PM. The actual parade starts at 7 PM. Details.

Editor’s Note: Frequent/Long Time readers and Twitterers may recall more than a few rants about naming winter storms. I think a TV channel naming winter storms is a bad idea, and I usually make hilarious-in-my-mind-only jokes like “Hey! I’ve decided to name today’s thunderstorms ‘thunderstorms.’ Snow tomorrow (when we used to get snow, lol, RIP Snow) we will call ‘snow.’ And rain, I don’t know, how about we call that ‘rain.'” Stuff like that. 

This week we learned you can purchase naming rights to European weather systems, which I suppose really isn’t different than what should be called “Titans Stadium” being called “L.P. Field.” I get it. If you want us to name stuff, you have to pay for the rights. Advertising 101.

So, in order to achieve Maximum Hypocrisy, and because I think it conveys a weather message, I’m naming the weather system bringing the rain we expect to see for Friday’s Christmas Parade “The Grinch Storm.”

Revelers may recall The Grinch Storm also arrived in time to cancel last year’s parade, but that was due to a Winter Weather Advisory, which was at least a Christmassy way of doing it.

Not this year. By 6 AM Friday, a warm front will have lifted over us, like a warm blanket your mom used to put over you when tucking you in on a cold night.

Clouds will pile in, and moisture will begin to pour into Middle Tennessee from the SW.

According to the NAM4 Model

A few hours before the parade, a downpour:

We may even see a few thunderstorms, but nothing strong or severe.

However, the NAM4 thinks there may be a break in the rain, or at least a shift from steady to off/on rain, around parade time. By 3 AM, a cold front will be shoving more rain across Middle TN:

So, there is hope here.

GFS Model

This model thinks it’ll rain, except its timing is about 6 hours later than the NAM4, although it’s hard to say considering the GFS has a lower temporal resolution than the NAM4. Still, looks wet. Just not as wet as NAM4.

Euro Model

Like the GFS, it also has a low temporal resolution, but it too thinks we will see rain during parade time, just less of it when compared to the NAM4.

Bottom Line

Rain is likely tomorrow night. We may even see a few innocent, no-worry thunderstorms. You will need rain gear, but note: the temp will be in mid-to-low 60°s the whole time. So, not a cold rain.

You might want to check back with us tomorrow morning. We’ll have the benefit of radar trends and the HRRR model, which will help us resolve some of the timing disputes in the models we see right now.

Saturday – Cold Front; Rain Ending – Wake Up 57°, High 58°

A cold front will make its way through Middle Tennessee during the early morning hours, producing a little rain early, then clearing us out sometime around noon.

The NAM shows the line of showers associated with cold front over Nashville at 3 AM. Below is a regional and zoomed in look.

9z sim rad

9z sim rad zoom

After noon (plus or minus a few hours), the showers will have pushed off to the SE… Leaving us cooler and dry!

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting between 1″+ of rain between 6 AM Thursday and 6 AM Sunday.

qpf 1-3

Most of this rain will fall Friday PM / Saturday AM.

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Categories: Forecast Blogs