Forecast Blogs

Update on Rain Chances

Temp/Wind Chill, Rain, Snow next 48 Hours:

Today – Cloudy & Cool – High 49°

A weak cold front has moved through Middle Tennessee and will continue to sag to the southeast throughout the day. This will usher in cooler and drier air. The NAM shows the cooler air into Nashville by 3 PM.

21z 2m temp

Due to this cold front, our high temperature will only rise a few degrees above our low (44° F) from this morning. Additionally, the sun could peak through the clouds because of drier air mixing in.

Overnight, the cloud cover will return, and with it, a slight chance for showers.

The National Weather Service is predicting a slight chance for showers to begin after 7 PM, which is the same time from the HRRR model thinks we will see them.

Thursday – Showers Possible – Wake Up 38°, High 54°

Thursday will begin with morning hit/miss garden variety showers. The High Res NAM is showing scattered showers beginning in Davidson and Williamson Counties around 5 AM.

11z sim rad

The NWS believes the bulk of the activity will occur after 7 AM. We will hold onto the slight chance for showers during the afternoon and into the evening, but those will be more isolated.

Overnight, the winds will shift and become southerly. This will usher in a warmer and more moist air mass ahead of a disturbance.

Friday & Saturday – Rain Arrives – Highs 64° Friday & 59° Saturday

The disturbance will be ringing our doorbell

by the afternoon. The NAM’s Simulated Radar shows the showers reaching us by 3 PM.

21z sim rad

The showers will continue overnight into Saturday morning… Which is when the heaviest rain is forecast to fall. The NAM is showing the most intense showers around 6 AM.

12z sim rad sat

Rain will continue to fall until late Saturday afternoon.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting between 1″ to 1.5″ of accumulated rain between 6 AM Wednesday and 6 AM Monday!

qpf 5 day

Most of this rain will fall Friday PM/ Saturday AM. The Euro is showing 1″ – 1.3″ of rain during this time frame!

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Categories: Forecast Blogs