First, some noon and 1 PM housekeeping:
Weather models have been struggling lately. Behold this Very Good Meteorologist:
This means the models could have one idea now, then a totally different idea three hours later.
The National Weather Service calls our weekend weather “unsettled” which is exactly what it is — off and on showers moving in from the west, but exactly where and when no one is exactly sure.
Are we out of the woods yet? Are we out of the woods yet? Are we out of the woods yet? Are we out of the woods yet?
Are we in the clear yet? Are we in the clear yet? Are we in the clear yet?
Not yet.
We asked the higher res models about Friday and here’s what we got:
Windy today. Not as windy as yesterday though. Dry, too, dewpoints in the thirties /applies chapstick/. Wind + Low Relative Humidity often = 🔥🔥 Fire Danger 🔥🔥 warning against outdoor burning, tossing your nicotine heaters, or other fire dangery things, lest a fire burn out of control and spread, but this is a Serious Weather Blog so I must inform you that NWS will not issue a fire statement today because:
Editor’s note. This is the hardest blog I’ve ever written. And it’s not the meteorology that had me stumped. -Will
Today, winds will be similar to yesterday.
West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Oh No Not Another Editor’s Note! You get different bloggers today through like May 10, from We The OG bloggers. The Regular Blogger needs time off to prove to college professors what we already know which is that he is very smart.
Only rain chances to speak about for the next few days will be today.
HRRR model (above) thinks best timeframe for some rain will be 1-4pm. No severe weather expected but cannot rule out some lightning.
Sometimes the weather model trends are bad, sometimes they are good. Today they are good.
Yesterday the HRRR showed a pretty wet Saturday. That wasn’t cool. Today (above) it has changed its mind and thinks we get away with a fairly dry Saturday, maybe a quicker shower or two this afternoon. That’s cool.
HRRR model thinks some pop-up rain showers could impact us this afternoon. It doesn’t look like much; you may not get any rain. If you do get any rain, it’ll be like lightly stubbing your toe. The pain(rain) will come and go quick, you’ll think to yourself “wow, that’s annoying” and then your day goes on.
Some showers moving through this morning, they’ll continue on/off thru tonight. Best chance of heavier rain with a storm or two looks to be this evening and tonight, as shown by the HRRR model below. I do not know if your outdoor rolly ball sports will get rained out, but it doesn’t look too promising.
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