⚠️Updated from earlier today.
This morning we thought the storms would come in around 9 PM to 10 PM Wednesday night. Now we think that’s earlier.
⌚ HRRR model ETA is now 5 PM to 6 PM. Timing may change so stay informed.
Category: Forecast Blogs (Legacy)
Liquid May Fall From The Sky On Wednesday?
Liquid Cloud Discharge Potential Thursday
What’ll be a 31 day streak without 0.02″+ of rain might end Thursday morning.
🗣️ Wait, what was that about “might“?
- It’s still a bit sus. Rain misses us in the last two Euro model runs, it goes east. (Makes sense, the good “moisture return” is east).
- GFS disagrees, delivers streak-breaking rain 👇🏽
🗣️ Which one is right?
National Blend of Models thinks rain totaling 0.4″, so I guess go for that? I’m not betting on anything. We need the higher res models to get into range Tuesday to get a grip.
🆕 Forecast Change: Frost Advisory Overnight.
Frost Advisory tonight.
Cover or shelter beloved frost sensitive plants.
- Advisory is technically for overnight, 1 AM to 9 AM. Coldest temps will last for a few hours around sunrise.
- We do not think it’ll freeze but it’ll be close.
- Models came in about three degrees colder overnight. BNA’s low went from 40° to 37°.
- Your backyard is usually colder than BNA during fall and winter mornings.
Rain increasingly likely late Wednesday into Thursday.
- GFS, Euro, and National Blend of Models show 0.6″ to 1.2″ rain total.
- Most of this should fall Thursday.
🤞🏽 Thunderstorms – probably not severe – may accompany this rain. This’ll be a “high shear, low instability” event common here in the fall.
Upper 30°s Sunday Morning.
Dry cold front arrives today.
- No big deal.
- Upper 30°s for most backyards early Sunday morning.
- Official BNA low 40° Sunday morning. BNA is among the warmer local spots during fall and winter mornings.
- Frost unlikely, except on roofs.
Gradual warmup next week 📈.
Drought continues ⌛
- Has not rained more than 0.02″ since September 11.
- Next rain chance Wed-Thu next week. Not much, total of 0.3″ or so on average. This is a low confidence forecast.
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Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.
Deck Sealers Rejoice for “Moderate Drought”
We are all “abnormally dry.”
- Even worse: most of Nashville is in a moderate drought.
You know how it happened:
- Our last rain of more than a tenth of an inch was 0.44″ on September 11.
- We average 3.80″ from Sept 1 to Oct 6. This year we’ve had 1.43″, almost all of which came the first two weeks of Sept.
Not even a chance of rain until maybe late Wednesday, Oct. 12. Low confidence in that.
It’s a great time to seal your driveway or stain your deck.
Wait another week or so for rain.
No rain until maybe the Thursday the 13th:
Many of us will dip into the upper 30°s around sunrise weekend.
- Frost should miss us to the east, up on the plateau.
- You’ll want your heater tho.
Alert tweeter Justin side-eyed Tuesday’s crap app forecast: 38° in the morning to 97° in the afternoon, guh.
Elevated Afternoon Fire Danger
- Don’t burn stuff this afternoon.
- afternoon relative humidity 10% to 20%, that’s crazy dry
- brown ground getting crunchy
- thankfully winds should be under 10 MPH, but still …
… no significant rain has fallen in Middle Tennessee since September 11 and our area has become quite dry – so elevated fire danger is expected during the afternoon hours with a risk for brush fires.
Hot then cold, sorry but no rain
Mid week warm up incoming, then much colder this week.
- Upper 80°s Thursday in some models.
- Cold front arrives Thursday night.
- Much colder weekend mornings.
- Some us of will see upper 30°s before sunrise Sunday morning.
Euro shows several colder than normal mornings over the next two weeks:
Euro and GFS models show no rain chances until on/after October 13.
- At least some fire danger remains
- Especially tomorrow as relative humidity drops more.
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