If you slept through the storms early this morning, grats. The lightning output was pretty incredible, and we saw a brief wind gust that damaged a tree or two in S Brentwood.

Decent rain amounts too, especially in central Williamson Co. read more

The convective outlook for today places most of Davidson and Williamson Counties in an area of enhanced risk. There is an enhanced risk for brief spinup tornadoes and damaging straight line wind. Let’s get into the details. read more

Rest of today and Wednesday morning will be calm. Let’s dive into the severe threat.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us with probabilities of “x” within 25 miles tomorrow.

• 30% chance of damaging (58mph+) straight-line winds
• 5% chance of severe (1″+) hail
• 2% chance of a tornado

There is also a 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles. read more

Probably a dry rest of the evening, HRRR (below) thinks a few showers could slide in. They’d be quick and no big deal.

Tues.

Percentage wise, rain chances appear pretty low tomorrow. However, the HRRR disagrees. read more

Storms thankfully missed us to the south today, leaving us with a dry evening.

Monday AM

We’ve been outlooked with a

• 15% chance of damaging (58mph+) straight-line winds within 25 miles
• 5% chance of severe (1″+) hail within 25 miles
• we are not included in any tornado probabilites

Tomorrow will be a conditional threat AKA there are more “ifs” than normal.

The latest HRRR model (above) has the storms forming on top of us Monday morning. Where these storms form will be very important. read more

Tonight

Tonight we have been outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles.

HRRR has been back and forth about tonight. Earlier runs showed a cluster of storms moving in around 8 or 9. Now, thinks we stay dry. read more

Not a bad Friday evening. Dewpoints are a bit muggy but temp wise not half bad. We’ll stay dry overnight.

HRRR model (above) thinks rain/storm chances return Saturday AM, lasting thru the afternoonish, conveniently leaving us with a dry Saturday PM. Not worried about severe weather, but a strong storm or two with some gusty winds and lightning cannot be ruled out. When thunder roars, go indoors. read more

Some rain, at times heavy with lightning moving thru this morning.

HRRR model (above) thinks this will continue for a couple more hours, starting to taper off around noon.

Afternoon and evening looks dry for the most part, maybe a few stray showers but NBD. read more

Quiet and dry rest of the evening.

Things quickly change tomorrow morning as a cluster of rain/storms moves in.

HRRR model (above) thinks heavy rain, along with the potential for gusty winds moves in just in time for AM rush hour… read more

If you enjoy dry weather, the past few days have been great for you. If you enjoy the rain, the rest of the week is for you.

HRRR model (above) shows the majority of the rain staying west of us, leaving us with just some NBD light showers throughout the day. read more