Damaging Straight-Line Winds Main Threat Wednesday PM/Overnight, Multiple Rounds Possible

Rest of today and Wednesday morning will be calm. Let’s dive into the severe threat.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us with probabilities of “x” within 25 miles tomorrow.

  • 30% chance of damaging (58mph+) straight-line winds
  • 5% chance of severe (1″+) hail
  • 2% chance of a tornado

There is also a 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles.

There’s a lot of variables that affect tomorrow. There are questions about whether or not there will be one or two rounds of severe weather. The timeframe of possible severe weather is also very wide, so it will be important to stay connected all day.

Round 1?

HRRR model (above) gives us a timeframe of approx. 3pm – midnight for Round One. It won’t be storming the entire time, but multiple waves of severe weather are possible. All modes of severe weather will be possible, with damaging straight-line winds being the main threat. Some hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

*Some models do not think we get a Round One, and only see one round later. This will have to be watched.*

Round Two

HRRR model gives an ETA of 1-3am very early Thursday AM for Round Two, subject to change.

The severity of Round Two will depend on how “well” the atmosphere can recover from the possible Round One.

There is no way to know right now if it will be able to. We will know a lot more tomorrow after Round One. We’ll be updating you as new info comes in.

For now, it should be assumed that all modes of severe weather would be possible with Round Two, yet again having damaging straight-line winds as the main threat.

With the threat being overnight, it will be important to have a way to wake-up in case a warning is issued for you.

NOAA Weather Radio, WEA Alerts on your phone, wake-me-up-app are all great options.

Rest of the Week

Thursday morning we could still be dealing with some spotty showers, but we should clear out the rest of the day.

Lower rain chances Friday before they pick back up Saturday. Timing is unclear, but no severe weather expected this weekend.

High temps around average for this time of year.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

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