Just got off the weekly NWS conference call with media and emergency management. Here’s the scoop:

1.   Expect a squall line of storms to arrive Thursday. Damaging “straight line” winds are the most likely threat. A few tornadoes are also possible. read more

During the afternoon discussion about Thursday’s storm potential, our NWS said:

THE SETUP LOOKS LIKE A QLCS EVENT FOR MID TN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING AND DETAILS...SO PLEASE MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. read more

Sunday 51/73

Clouds will file in Sunday afternoon. Light rain is possible. Here’s what the models think:

European (ECMWF):

European Model as of Sunday at 1pm. This is very, very light rain.

American (GFS):

American (GFS) model, also at 1pm Sunday. The 4pm run takes the precip N of Davidson & Williamson Counties

Any rain is forecast to be light. It should not ruin any outdoor activities. read more

Tomorrow 42/73

It will be awesome!

Sunday 49/73

The NWS includes a “slight chance of showers.”

The GFS and NAM weather models think we will be dry here, but it will rain in southern Kentucky. If the models are wrong by 50-75 miles, we will get wet.

The European model says we might see a few hit or miss showers Sunday afternoon.

It probably won’t rain. More on this tomorrow night.

Mid-Week Storm Chances

Anyone who says they know what will happen is lying.

When weather models are consistent run-to-run, and are then consistent with each other, forecasters can have confidence about what kind of storms to expect, and when we can expect them. With this week’s storm system, the models aren’t consistent.

The European model thinks storms will arrive Thursday morning. Here it is Thursday at 7am:

The GFS (American) model has been wildly inconsistent with (1) it’s prior runs and (2) the European model. The latest GFS model run delivers storms Wednesday afternoon, almost a day before the European model:

As usual, our NWS expresses the forecast quandary best (ECMWF is the European model; “Ensembles” are multiple runs of the same model). Our NWS likes the European solution better because it has been consistent with its prior runs:

FORECAST PROBLEMS ABOUND MIDWEEK...WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MID TN TUESDAY NIGHT...A FULL 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN MOST PREVIOUS RUNS AND MORE THAN 36 HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. PER WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND MAINTAIN EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. EARLIER WE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...AND THE VERY UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX.THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...BUT THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO OFFER ANY ADDITIONAL DETAILS AT THIS TIME. read more

The chilly rain is leaving tonight. We’ll have a dry and chilly Friday morning, then quickly warm into the mid 60s. Expect a beautiful Spring weekend, with high temps in the mid 70s. read more

Yesterday’s forecast called for about 1.25″ of rain tomorrow. Time to backpedal!  Looks like the rainmaker is going to move further south and way east of us. We still think it’ll rain, just not that much. read more

I coach my daughter’s under-8 soccer team. We practice every Thursday at 5pm. I’ve already canceled practice for this Thursday due to rain (well, that, and we’ve already played a night game this week). read more

@Klappermom is the latest #tSpotter hero. She sent in this linked video, which for whatever reason we can’t embed, so here it is (http://www.mobypicture.com/user/klappermom/view/15059695). Turn up the sound! read more

Expect sun & clouds Tuesday and Wednesday, then the skies open Thursday. The below map from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center dumps less than a half inch on us …

… but during the NWS media conference call this morning, the NWS said they think totals will be closer to an inch. read more

First, there’s a Dense Fog Advisory until Monday at 9am.

THE WEEK AHEAD

No complaints tomorrow – Monday’s high temp is 60, and we look like we are done with the rain.

Unseasonably cool temperatures return Tuesday. Morning wind chills Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 30s. Tuesday’s high is only 50. Those high temps will slowly warm, but stay stuck in the 50s, through Friday. read more