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Beautiful Saturday! Sunday Almost as Great. Mid-Week Storm Update.

Tomorrow 42/73

It will be awesome!

Sunday 49/73

The NWS includes a “slight chance of showers.”

The GFS and NAM weather models think we will be dry here, but it will rain in southern Kentucky. If the models are wrong by 50-75 miles, we will get wet.

The European model says we might see a few hit or miss showers Sunday afternoon.

It probably won’t rain. More on this tomorrow night.

Mid-Week Storm Chances

Anyone who says they know what will happen is lying.

When weather models are consistent run-to-run, and are then consistent with each other, forecasters can have confidence about what kind of storms to expect, and when we can expect them. With this week’s storm system, the models aren’t consistent.

The European model thinks storms will arrive Thursday morning. Here it is Thursday at 7am:

Euro Thu 7am

The GFS (American) model has been wildly inconsistent with (1) it’s prior runs and (2) the European model. The latest GFS model run delivers storms Wednesday afternoon, almost a day before the European model:

As usual, our NWS expresses the forecast quandary best (ECMWF is the European model; “Ensembles” are multiple runs of the same model). Our NWS likes the European solution better because it has been consistent with its prior runs:

FORECAST PROBLEMS ABOUND MIDWEEK...WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MID TN TUESDAY NIGHT...A FULL 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN MOST PREVIOUS RUNS AND MORE THAN 36 HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. PER WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND MAINTAIN EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. EARLIER WE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...AND THE VERY UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX.THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...BUT THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY
UNCERTAINTIES TO OFFER ANY ADDITIONAL DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

Those wanting a more technical analysis, and sometimes a slightly different take, are welcome to visit Eric’s Forecast page (a link to that is in the menu at the top of this page). Eric is studying meteorology. You know him as @RuthSevereWx.

 

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