Yesterday’s rain totals:
Davidson County saw between 2″ & 3.75″
Williamson County got mostly between 2″ and 2.5″, with a few locations in the western county racking up over 4″!
Little Rainy, then a Drying & Cooling Trend
We dodged a bullet yesterday. The Cumberland Electric Company Reported that over 2,000 people in Clarksville lost power last night — in the area with a tornado signature on radar.
Today the NWS is surveying what appeared to be a long-track tornado-producing supercell which moved across western Middle TN late Monday afternoon.
Whew! OK, What’s Next?
Well, that was close. Thankful to escape with only a few reports of 60 mph winds after seeing this at 5:15 PM:
Other communities to our W and NW were not so lucky.
The Tornado Watch is set to expire at Midnight. It’ll likely formally be cancelled before then.
Tornado Watch Until Midnight
Current Radar Loops:
At 3:56 PM, the NWS posted this:
Keep an eye on those storms flying out of N Alabama.
Tornado Watch Until Midnight
Here is the Watch Information. Notice the Hazard Likelihood at the bottom:
Tonight’s Severe Weather: What & When
Current Radar Loops:
Severe Weather Likely Tonight — High 82°
3:00 PM Update
SPC’s latest update:
2% to 5% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of you:
15% to 30% probability of a 58 mph or greater wind gust occurring within 25 miles of you:
All Eyes On Tomorrow Night: 2 Potential Rounds of Storms
Summary: Windy Monday – Severe Weather in 2 Rounds – Round 1: late afternoon/early evening Monday – Round 2: main squall line ETA 3 AM to 6 AM Tuesday morning – Damaging Winds, Torrential Rain, Tornadoes possible in both rounds.
Severe Weather Possible Today, Likely Tomorrow
2:42 PM – The National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement for both Davidson and Williamson Counties for Monday into Tuesday morning.
2:30 PM – The Storm Prediction Center put out a Mesoscale Discussion that included Middle Tennessee. It has confirmed, however, that the system has missed us to the east.
Rainy Weekend; Stormy/Severe Monday
Current Temp
Current Radar Loops
Saturday – Mid 60s – Rain
Rain will be here mid-morning, and should continue off and on through most of the afternoon and evening. The HRRR model thinks there may be a break in the rain by mid afternoon. If you have outdoor activities planned, I suggest you just watch for gaps in the rain on the above radar loops.
Trying to Tackle When/Where/What re Weekend Rain
Current Temp
Current Radar
Today – Heavy Rain– High 76°
This morning’s rain is from a wave bringing instability, moisture, and warm temps — atypical for October. The wave can be seen tracking to the northeast into Nashville on the NAM’s 10 AM vertical uplift map.
Wet Weather Ahead
What is a gust front?
Suppose you have a cluster of storms producing heavy rain, like we saw this morning.
When that rain falls, it brings wind with it. That wind hits the ground and has to go somewhere, so it moves away from the storm. And because there is rain-cooled air in the storm, what we get is rain-cooled air moving along the surface and away from the parent storm.
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