Summary: Windy Monday – Severe Weather in 2 Rounds – Round 1: late afternoon/early evening Monday – Round 2: main squall line ETA 3 AM to 6 AM Tuesday morning – Damaging Winds, Torrential Rain, Tornadoes possible in both rounds.
Current Radar Loops:
Sunday Night – Monday Morning – Rain/Storms Possible
Rain and storms will be firing along a warm front lifting into Middle TN from Alabama tonight. Our NWS thinks weather models are probably overdoing the coverage and intensity of the storms into the wee hours of Tuesday morning, but we do expect some rain and maybe a few strong storms while we sleep. This isn’t a big concern.
Monday is Columbus Day — Windy, But Not a Lot of Rain Expected — High 84°
The meteorologists on duty tonight at NWS aren’t convinced winds will gust to 30 MPH, so whether we’ll get a Wind Advisory for tomorrow is up to the midnight shift. Still, it’s going to be windy tomorrow. Wind gusts 35-40 MPH are certainly possible.
Late Monday Afternoon & Early Evening – Round 1: Storms Ahead of the Squall Line
By late afternoon and early evening, the warm front will have fully arrived in Middle Tennessee, producing isolated to scattered thunderstorms, any of which could become severe. Damaging wind gusts and one or two tornadoes are not out of the question. In terms of probability, this is the least likely of the two rounds, but neither round should be discounted.
Wee Hours of Tuesday Morning – Round 2: Squall Line with Damaging Wind, Torrential Rain, and Tornado Potential
After midnight — our NWS thinks it’ll be 3 AM to 6 AM — the north-to-south squall line itself will swing across I-65. This line expected to be weakening slightly as it arrives in our area, but the storm system will be powerful enough to produce torrential rain, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes across all of Middle Tennessee. It’s thought the threat is greater to the west, slightly weaker to the east. Of course, we’re right in the middle.
From the Special Weather Statement from our NWS: Please keep in mind that the bulk of this severe weather will be during the overnight hours. Nocturnal tornadoes are one of the biggest killers in Middle Tennessee. Stay weather aware throughout Monday night and Tuesday and have a plan to shelter already in place before severe weather arrives. (Source).
Don’t plan to be driving in this.
Bottom line: you need a NOAA weather radio and/or a wake-me-up app. For iOS, we use StormWatch+, scrolling across the top banner of this page. Droid users should try those made by iMap and/or the Red Cross (I’ve not used them, but I’ve heard good things). Remember, you’re not necessarily buying a radio or an app. You’re buying sleep.
We will update this site around lunch tomorrow, but are on Twitter @NashSevereWx all the time.
Warnings are never posted to this website, which is a supplement to additional content found @NashSevereWx on Twitter. Please consult multiple other sources for severe weather, especially local TV (2, 4, 5, 17).