Rainy Weekend; Stormy/Severe Monday

Current Temp

Current Radar Loops

Saturday – Mid 60s – Rain

Rain will be here mid-morning, and should continue off and on through most of the afternoon and evening. The HRRR model thinks there may be a break in the rain by mid afternoon. If you have outdoor activities planned, I suggest you just watch for gaps in the rain on the above radar loops.

A cooler airmass has settled in overhead, so we aren’t expecting as much rain as we saw yesterday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but no strong or severe thunderstorms are forecast.

Sunday – High in Mid 70s – More Rain

A warm front returns, and sends the cooler air out. Once the warmer air arrives, the coverage of rain and storms will decrease; however, the air will be more unstable with a greater potential for strong storms and localized heavy downpours in those storms that do develop Sunday afternoon.

Despite the decrease in rain coverage, weather models suggest we will see morning and afternoon rain and thunderstorms. If you’re going to the Titans game, you should remember that pre-season game when it rained like crazy. That’s certainly possible tomorrow. Also possible: it’ll rain before, then after, the game (but not during). I would not bet on that. Be ready for rain if you’re going. Imagine a Soggy Charlie Whitehurst.

Monday – Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Likely – High 82

A squall line is forecast by all the weather models. Here’s how the Hi-Res NAM shows it (at 1 PM Monday).

This line is expected to move east and arrive sometime between late afternoon and late night on Monday.

From our NWS:

1.  Damaging winds and flash flooding will be the primary hazards, with the possibility for isolated tornadoes.

2.  Monday evening could bring a quick 2+ inches of rain. After several rounds of rainfall this weekend, that would be enough to cause flooding. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued by Monday night.

Similar severe weather ingredients have produced the following severe weather in the past:

November 24, 2001:

(1) Twitter - Internet Explorer 2014-10-11 09.17.27

October 18, 2007:

(2) Twitter - Internet Explorer 2014-10-11 09.19.26

November 15, 2005:

(2) Twitter - Internet Explorer 2014-10-11 09.20.05

November 7, 1996:

(2) Twitter - Internet Explorer 2014-10-11 09.20.45

The Storm Prediction Center has drawn the western border of the shaded area for significant severe weather right along I-65:

Storm Prediction Center Oct 11, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - Internet Explorer 2014-10-11 09.49.33

Be alert Monday.

More information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx, now with less carbs.