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Tonight’s Severe Weather: What & When

Current Radar Loops:

Severe Weather Likely Tonight — High 82°

3:00 PM Update

SPC’s latest update:

2% to 5% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of you:

15% to 30% probability of a 58 mph or greater wind gust occurring within 25 miles of you:

Hail remains the least likely severe weather mode, as we sit on the fringe of a 5% probability of a 1+ inch diameter hail event within 25 miles:

ETA:

NWS - Internet Explorer 2014-10-13 13.46.55

A Wind Advisory remains in effect from today until 7 AM Tuesday for 35 MPH wind gusts outside the thunderstorm winds we’ll seelater. During the NWS conference call this morning, 40 MPH gusts were mentioned.

Flash Flooding Is A Big Concern

We’ve seen a lot of rain, and more is coming:

The biggest hazard tonight is Flash Flooding potential.

We are expecting between 1″ and 3″ of rain, with some areas exceeding that total. The ground is already near saturation and there will be a lot of runoff.

Because this is an overnight event, it will be tough to judge the depth of water covering road ways. Don’t drive over water covered roads.

We remain concerned about supercells forming out ahead of the main line. During the mid-afternoon outlook, the Storm Prediction Center wrote “THE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR STORMS…WITH DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.”

A few more points:

1.  The line itself will be a slow mover. We expect the line to be moving east, with the storms along the line moving northeast, or even NNE. Again, the slow speed of the system is why flash flooding is probably the main concern.

2.  NWS expects a severe weather watch, probably a Tornado Watch, may be issued late this afternoon or early tonight.

Depending on how the day goes, we may or may not edit this page again today, so please follow along @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Warnings are never posted to this website, which is a supplement to additional content found @NashSevereWx on Twitter. Please consult multiple other sources for severe weather, especially local TV (2, 4, 5, 17).

Extended:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Internet Explorer 2014-10-13 11.29.14

Lingering showers will continue until about 2 PM on Tuesday. Cooler and drier air will begin to trickle into Middle Tennessee. By Thursday night we will be mostly clear!

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