2:42 PM – The National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement for both Davidson and Williamson Counties for Monday into Tuesday morning.
2:30 PM – The Storm Prediction Center put out a Mesoscale Discussion that included Middle Tennessee. It has confirmed, however, that the system has missed us to the east.
Current Temp
Current Radar Loops
Saturday – Mid 60s – Rain
Rain will be here mid-morning, and should continue off and on through most of the afternoon and evening. The HRRR model thinks there may be a break in the rain by mid afternoon. If you have outdoor activities planned, I suggest you just watch for gaps in the rain on the above radar loops.
What is a gust front?
Suppose you have a cluster of storms producing heavy rain, like we saw this morning.
When that rain falls, it brings wind with it. That wind hits the ground and has to go somewhere, so it moves away from the storm. And because there is rain-cooled air in the storm, what we get is rain-cooled air moving along the surface and away from the parent storm.
Overnight – Rain/Storms
Current Radar
A cold front will push showers and storms into our area while we sleep (sometime around 2 AM).
Our NWS points out “a few of these could become severe…mainly hailers.” In fact, there is a good bit of rotation in the atmosphere, and one of the cells has been tornado warned. A tornado here is unlikely, but will need to be monitored.
Current Radar
At 8:45 PM, storm activity was diminishing or otherwise moving east of us. The question is: are we done with the storms?
Probably not. Even though there is nothing on the radar to our W and NW, and only very scattered storms are expected over the region while we sleep (any storms we get may be severe, with hail the main threat), more rain/storms are expected Tuesday.
At 3:28 PM the SPC issued a MD for the TN Valley. With continued instability and stronger mid level flow severe storms are possible.
Isolated to scattered severe storms with hail are possible into this evening. If the is an increase in storm coverage and organization then a Severe Storm Watch will be issued.
