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Rain Tomorrow? Ask the Models.

Current Temps and Radar

Tonight – Storms Gone…For Now

A decent little piece of energy shot across both counties later this afternoon, prompting, at least at the time I write this, two severe thunderstorm warnings to our east. There has been some thunderstorm wind damage in Sumner Co. Those storms continue to race away from us.

We are not done with the storms. Probably.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase again to our west late tonight, and slowly spread east into Middle Tennessee tomorrow.

Monday – Scattered Rain and Storms – High 81°

We are forecast to get 0.27″ of rain tomorrow, which will most likely fall between 7 AM and 4 PM.  It looks like any overnight thunderstorm activity out to our west will very likely weaken upon arrival Monday morning.

However, the models aren’t painting a clear picture, so we aren’t sure when to expect it, or really how much.

So, I asked the models.

The NAM4 model develops the weakening morning storms, which is really nothing but light rain by the time it arrives around/after the AM rush-hour. It tries to redevelop showers in the afternoon, but those are so scattered it’s difficult to say with any certainty they will make it to us.

The GFS model has lower resolution, so determining decent ETAs is more difficult, but it thinks we will see a little rain in the morning and a little bit in the afternoon.

The HRW models looks similarly unimpressive rainwise, with a little bit of rain in the morning and widely scattered showers in the afternoon.

All that to say, I would not bet on a complete and total washout tomorrow.

We may see a few thunderstorms tomorrow, but no severe weather is expected.

Tuesday – Cold Front Arrives, Maybe a Shower – High 81°

The passage of the cold front will be pretty uneventful. We may see a few showers, but no big deal. Very little rain – maybe nothing at all – is expected.

Cooler air comes on in behind it.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

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