Current Radar
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The Watch will expire at 11 PM tonight.
The ETA of the storms approaching Middle Tennessee is between 6:30 PM and 7:30 PM. Those north of I-40 may see these storms arrive closer to 6:30 PM. Though south of I-40 may see the storms arrive closer to 7:30 PM.
Current Radar
Severe Weather Risk Increases
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our risk from Enhanced to Moderate – level 4 of 5 on the scale of risks for severe weather. Updates to their outlook include adding wording for long track tornadoes. They are calling this a potential outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Nothing major has changed in terms of thunderstorm timing, but they believe that the threat for severe weather has increased.
Current Radar
Well folks, I’m your special guest blogger (Kelton Halbert) from the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology. I’m back home in Nashville for the holidays and was asked to lend a hand – so don’t blame David if I butcher this!
Current Radar
There’s nothing on our radar right now, and the HRRR model isn’t too impressed by our overnight rain chances:
We may see a few light showers squeeze out in the middle of the night while the bulk of the rain passes to our SE, clearing out the SE US for tomorrow’s event.
Current Radar
We have plenty of information for you on tomorrow’s thunderstorms, but first…let’s get you through today.
We’ll catch a break from the rain today, as the bulk of it moves east.
Current Radar
HRRR expects rain to continue tonight, gradually tapering off in time for the morning rush-hour:
We expect a few weak thunderstorms embedded in the rain, posing no strong or severe concerns. Some downpours should be heavy, but overall, just a gross night, nothing more.
Current Radar
South winds blowing 13-16 MPH (gusting close to 30 MPH) are efficiently transporting a lot of moisture into Middle Tennessee, setting the stage for a good rain even this afternoon and tonight.
Current Radar
Earlier today, the NAM4 model showed a steady soaking rain starting just after midnight.
We need to adjust the timing and amount expected.
The HRRR has some off/on (mostly “off”) light showers arriving in the morning, but not nearly as dreary as the models showed this morning.
Current Radar
Dec. 2015 on pace to be the 2nd warmest on record at Nashville. That avg. temp will only climb next week, too. pic.twitter.com/3wH7z7qfAO
— NWS Nashville (@NWSNashville) December 20, 2015
Current Radar
South winds will increase after dark, sending in warmer and wetter air.
Check out the GFS model at noon every day this week:
Not really a steady rain, but a persistent off and on pattern. Temps in the low 50°s, highs mid 60°s.
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