A Little Rain Late Tonight
Around or after midnight, a little trough will try and shove in some light rain. The atmosphere is really dry near the surface, and this rainer looks pretty weak, so we aren’t expecting it to alter any outdoor activities Monday.
Monday, the rain should be long gone well before morning rush hour,and the rest of Monday looks dry: 47° early, high 66°.
Super Rainy Super Tuesday
Expect a rotten weather day for the primaries.
The models aren’t in agreement on timing, but they think we will get soaked. The Euro model brings the rain in Tuesday and out early Wednesday morning. The GFS brings it in mid-day Tuesday and lingers precip (see below) through the day Wednesday. Either way, we think it’ll be pouring Tuesday afternoon and evening, but as always, when the models don’t agree, don’t wager heavily on the ETAs. We think this will be a half-inch of rain through Tuesday night.
With a surface low passing to our NW and us sitting on the warm side of the storm, thunderstorms are possible Tuesday. Euro expects there will be some CAPE (storm fuel), but the GFS doesn’t. Severe weather dynamics don’t look impressive, but there’s enough there to warrant the Storm Prediction Center to include us in its 5% probability for severe weather Tuesday. Damaging winds and hail would be possible.
When Will We Stop Having to Mention Snow Chances?
Not this week.
As Tuesday’s rain system tries pulling away Wednesday, both the Euro and GFS models suggest cold air will race in just before the rain ends, and change some of it to sleet or snow very early Wednesday morning. Here’s the GFS (we aren’t allowed to show the Euro):
We do not think this will be a big deal because (1) the ground will be very warm, and (2) despite super-cold temps aloft, surface temps won’t dip below freezing. Anything that falls should quickly melt, then the precip will have moved east and the sun will come racing out.
When the rain ends, colder air will race in. Highs in the mid/upper 60°s Tuesday will be cut by about 20° Wednesday, when the high is only 48°.
More rain is possible Thursday, with yet another unimpressive chance of snow. Drier air is expected by the weekend.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs