Today – Sunny High: 65°
The system to our north over the Great Lakes has brought some clouds in our area this morning. Clouds will move out of the area then expect plenty of sunshine today. Enjoy it!
The current surface analysis shows last night’s weak cold front has passed (as expected). Temperatures will continue to climb this afternoon into the mid 60s.
The big story is super Tuesday. This when our next rain-maker will move in.
Super Tuesday – Showers and Thunderstorms High: 67° — Vote Early
The Storm Prediction Center has updated the severe weather outlook and we are now included in a slight risk for Tuesday.
A surface low will move over the Ohio River Valley from the west. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through Tuesday afternoon. Our temperatures ahead of a strong cold front will reach the upper 60s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s across our area.
There will be enough instability for some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The main threat with this system will be damaging winds. As the front approaches in the afternoon, there will be a fairly tight pressure gradient at the surface, meaning it will be pretty windy. Southwesterly winds will gust up to 25 mph from lunchtime into the late afternoon.
The tornado threat will be low… Close to zero. Winds will be out of the southwest at the surface as the system approaches our area. Not enough turning with height in the atmosphere.
The Euro has the rain moving in around lunchtime. Then the heavy rain moves in during the late afternoon into the evening.
The NAM 4 km has isolated showers and thunderstorms moving in ahead of major band of rain during the morning commute.
Models agree there will be rain in our area during lunchtime. It is a good idea to eat inside.
The cold front will pass through late afternoon. The cold air will start filtering in and temperatures will tumble into the low to mid 30s overnight. This is when we see a line of showers and thunderstorms in our area. Damaging winds will be the main threat when this line moves through.
As the colder air filters in, light snow may begin to mix with showers around midnight. Most of the wintry mix will stay to our east on the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures will remain above the freezing mark so no accumulation is expected.
Wednesday – Colder! High: 44°
Clouds will gradually decrease during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s across the area. You will see some sunshine as high pressure builds in after the system.
Winds will be out of the northwest then shift to out of the south once again. The surface high pressure moving east over our area will influence our wind flow.
More rain will move in later this week. An upper level shortwave will swing through late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty with the track of the low at the surface. However, there will be rain moving in during the early afternoon on Thursday. We will keep you updated on details of Thursday’s system.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs