This morning we’ll be seeing some scattered showers around the area, which should clear out before lunch time.
Later into this evening, some heavier storms will make their way through. The HRRR currently has the rain moving in around 8pm and sticking around through that New Years toast. This unfortunately means outdoor parties are a no-go. Probably going to be hard to shoot fireworks in the pouring rain.
This is a complicated forecast that we make easy lol. Let me start off saying we’re relying on the HRRR model. I point this out because there are so many Somewhat Different Ideas from other weather models about Friday and Saturday. Were we to talk about all those that would make this weather briefing more annoying than it already is. I say that to ask you to please check back in the morning because timing and hazards may change, and I think the data might give you a clearer picture of what’ll be incoming. Saturday looks worse than Friday, generally speaking. I’m hoping this will at least help you plan your weekend.
SPC places a greater severe weather chance south of I-40. The majority of our counties are still included in the slight risk category for today’s severe thunderstorms.
The main threat is damaging straight line winds (60+ mph) with a 5% chance of damaging winds/gusts within 25 miles of you. A tornado can’t be ruled out in this situation with a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you. Small hail is possible with a 5% chance of hail with a diameter of 1 inch or greater within 25 miles of you.
Below the HRRR model shows rain off and on through Tuesday night, not much, mostly Monday night and Tuesday, no washout.
Then Wednesday even more rain as seen by the Euro model below.
Now this may be a washout. Perhaps even thunderstorms but the severe threat is more likely well south of us as depicted by SPC:
