Bye, July! Hellloooo August!

Current Radar

TODAY – Lower Humidity & Plenty of Sunshine – High: 90º

We’ve had some pretty great weather today, considering it’s the last day of July. Bye, July!

Dew point temperatures have been in the 50°s this afternoon. So, even though temps have read around 90°, it hasn’t felt hotter than that.

No rain today (or for the next few days) as high pressure has really settled in:

Winds will pick up a bit this afternoon, at 10-15 mph from the north.

THIS EVENING – 86° by 7 PM 

It’ll be a pretty great evening with low humidity and cooler temperatures firmly in place.

Clear skies and a north breeze around 10 mph will provide even nicer conditions.

Lows overnight will fall back to the upper 60°s.

SATURDAY – Helloooo August! – Wake Up: 69º, High: 90º

Tomorrow will essentially be a repeat of today. Sunny skies, a breezy north wind, lower humidity, and no rain:

Not bad for the 1st day of August!

Lows will fall back to the upper 60ºs overnight.

SUNDAY – Nice End to the Weekend – Wake Up: 68º, High: 91°

By Sunday, humidity will be starting to rise ever so slightly, but it’ll still feel much less humid out there. The bump-up in humidity will be caused by our winds shifting back to southerly flow.

So, expect some more moisture in the air, but probably just in the form of a few more clouds in the sky.

Rain chances will remain pretty much non-existent through the start of the new week:

Extended: Warming Back Up A Few Degrees at a Time

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Not as Humid & Not as Hot the Next Few Days

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 84° by 7 PM 

“Cooler,” drier conditions will remain as we head into the evening hours.

Rain will continue to stay far, far away:

It should be a really nice night to get outdoors.

Lows overnight will fall to the mid to upper 60°s!

FRIDAY – Low Humidity & Sunny Skies – Wake Up: 67º, High: 90º

We’ll have some very nice conditions for the last day of July: sunny skies, dew points in the upper 50°s, and near-normal temperatures.

High pressure will continue to keep the rain well west of us:

SATURDAY – August 1st – Wake Up: 67º, High: 91°

August will begin on a “not-as-hot-as-it-could-be” note Saturday.

Humidity will start to creep back up every so slightly, but it will still be much nicer than what we dealt with earlier this week.

Plenty of sunshine will make it a great weekend for any and all outdoor plans!

Extended: Staying “Cooler” Through the Weekend

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Heat Advisory & Marginal Severe Risk Today

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 88° by 7 PM 

The Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 7 PM:

Warm & humid conditions will follow us into the evening hours, and we’ll stay dry…

…until later tonight when storms ahead of a cold front approach:

We may catch a storm, or maybe just hear the thunder from a distance.

Either way, the severe risk remains marginal until tomorrow morning:

Main concern with any storms will be strong winds:

THURSDAY – Cold Front Moves Through! – Wake Up: 75º, High: 90º

Storms should begin to fizzle as we head into the early morning hours:

Drier and somewhat cooler air will begin to filter in tomorrow morning as the front pushes off to our southeast.

It should be well out of our hair by noon:

We’ll see clearing throughout the day, as well as some drier air! That will really make the difference tomorrow afternoon, even though highs will still be in the 90°s.

FRIDAY – Hot Again – Wake Up: 66º, High: 89°

Slightly cooler and drier air will continue into Friday and the weekend!

The high pressure that will move in behind tomorrow’s front will squash rain chances at least through early next week.

Extended: Pretty Stellar Weekend Ahead

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Very Hot Today & PM Storms

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 76° by 7 PM 

Another cluster of non-severe thunderstorms looks to be making its way south from Kentucky. If the storms hold together, we may see them within an hour or so.

As things keep cooling off this evening, shower/storm activity should begin to diminish, especially after the sun sets (7:55 PM):

What is not “swag” is that we’re under a Heat Advisory:

But, it is expected to expire at 7 PM. It may be extended through tomorrow. We’ll let you know.

WEDNESDAY – Hot Again – Wake Up: 76º, High 94°

The heat returns tomorrow….

…with highs back in the mid 90°s and heat index values back in the 100°-105° range.

We’ll have to keep a close eye on those heat index values, because they’ll be getting awfully close to Heat Advisory territory tomorrow.

Good news: we’re expecting a cold front to push through the area late tomorrow/early Thursday!

Not so awesome news: it’ll be a pretty weak front, and won’t do a whole lot for our temps.

It will bring us another shot at PM showers and storms, though.

The severe risk is marginal:

Any showers/thunderstorms should hold off until later in the afternoon as a the front gets closer:

Rain is likely overnight as the boundary continues to move slowly through:

THURSDAY – A Bit Drier After the Front – Wake Up: 75º, High: 91º

Life after the front moves out early on Thursday won’t look much different.

However, you’ll probably notice less humidity in the air. Also, rain will stay to our south:

Extended: Nice Day (for July) on Friday

 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain, Maybe Storms Today, Sharknadoes Tonight!

Current Radar

Any strong storms today/this evening should slide south of us, in the dark-green shaded area below:

Technically, Nashville falls into the “general” thunderstorm category. But, seeing a strong/severe storm or two is not out of the question later today. However, most of the activity will be non-severe.

The only categorical threat that is near our area is that of damaging thunderstorm winds greater than 58 mph within 25 mile of us. Again, technically, we are not included in this risk area. But, we could see a few storms will very strong winds throughout the day, so just keep this in mind.

We can’t rule out a few flying sharks, either.

THIS EVENING – 81° by 7 PM. ALSO: SHARKNADO 3!

Expect scattered showers and storms to still be around by this evening.

Models agree that a large wave of rain/storms will arrive later this evening/early tonight:

If you enjoy the sounds of rain as you fall asleep, tonight will be your kind of night.

THURSDAY – Rain Chances Continue – Wake Up: 72º, High 86°

Depending on which model you ask, rain from tonight may or may not last until the morning.

Either way, I think some showers will still be in the vicinity, and it’ll be a cloudy start to the day.

We should dry off during the day, with a slight chance of scattered showers/weak storms during the afternoon and into the evening:

Highs will be even cooler than today, thanks to the rain and cloud cover.

FRIDAY – Warming Back Up, Showers Not Out of the Question – Wake Up: 71º, High: 90º

With surface high pressure building back in to the area by Friday, better rain chances look to be to our west:

Highs will be back to the 90ºs, just in time for the weekend.

Extended: Rain Chances Down, Temperatures Up

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Slight Chance for Rain the Rest of the Week

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 87° by 7 PM 

Your outdoor plans should be good to go this evening. We’ll have to keep one eye on the radar for some scattered showers, just so one doesn’t sneak up on us.

Otherwise, southern Tennessee will be the ones with the action this evening and overnight.

WEDNESDAY – Highs Only in the Upper 80°s! – Wake Up: 73º, High 89°

With the cold front gone and south of our area, high pressure will move in. This will bring us slightly cooler temperatures and drier air!

I’m not saying you’re not going to sweat if you’re outside a lot, but it will probably feel a little nicer out there.

We should stay dry for the majority of the day.

However, there will be a stationary front draped across the southern portion of the state, which could stir-up some rain and storms in the evening:

THURSDAY – Still Cooler, Chance for Rain – Wake Up: 70º, High: 87º

Stationary front will remain in the vicinity, so rain chances will also stick around for the rest of the week.

This model has a stormy start for us early on Thursday:

Too early to say what time(s), but expect some showers and storms Thursday and into Friday, as well.

Extended: Highs Back to the 90°s by Friday

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Feels Like 100°+ This Weekend

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 89º by 7 PM 

Conditions will remain very warm, humid, and rain-free this evening.

Great for outdoor plans! Not so great if you don’t like to sweat. Surely I can’t be serious?

SATURDAY – Feels Like 100°-105° – Wake Up: 75°, High: 97º

The good news about this weekend: no rain to ruin your plans!

The not so good news about this weekend: crazy hot temperatures.

Note: in the above image, you can see that this model is picking up on some rain to our south and east. The best chances for showers/storms this weekend will be to our east, near the Plateau. High pressure is not steering their weather as much as it is ours, so their rain chances are a bit better. 

Okay, it could be worse. But, we’re still looking at highs in the upper 90°s tomorrow with high humidity. That’ll push our heat index values up to the 100°-105° mark.

You know the drill: stay hydrated, wear loose, light-colored clothes, take plenty of breaks if you’re outside often, and don’t overdo it.

Also, 3 checks: check the backseat, check on friends and neighbors, and check on your pets!

We’ll stay dry through the evening, as well:

Expect warm and humid conditions overnight, with lows in the upper 70°s.

SUNDAY – Another Scorcher – Wake Up: 77°, High: 96º

Hot and dry conditions will follow us into Sunday, as well:

With no rain chances to provide relief from the heat, we’ll need to continue to be heat safe all weekend.

Heat index values will likely read back in the 100°-105° range on Sunday.

EXTENDED: Better Rain Chances Return Monday 

 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Heat Building Through the Weekend

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 85º by 7 PM 

Dry, warm conditions will continue into the evening hours. Outdoor plans are most definitely a GO today!

Skies will be clear overnight, with lows in the low 70ºs.

FRIDAY – Temps on the Rise – Wake Up: 72°, High: 94º

A warm front will drag across the area early Friday morning, and may bring a few showers with it:

Otherwise, rain chances are just about 0 for the rest of the day. You’ll also notice slightly higher humidity tomorrow, as well as hotter afternoon temperatures.

Highs will be back in the mid 90ºs. Blahhh.

SATURDAY – Heat Index Concerns? – Wake Up: 74°, High: 97º

The first day of the weekend will bring us much of the same: hot and little chance for rain.

With high temperatures creeping back into the upper 90ºs and humidity back up into the oppressive range, we may have heat index values between 100º and 105º by Saturday afternoon.

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Yay, summer…

EXTENDED:  Very HOT Again on Sunday

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Not as Hot & Wimpy Rain Chances

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 84º by 7 PM 

This evening should be nice, with relatively cooler temperatures and low chances of catching a shower:

Overnight temps will fall all the way to the upper 60ºs! Not exactly chilly, but we’ll take it.

THURSDAY – Warming Back Up, But Staying Dry – Wake Up: 69°, High: 91º

We’ll continue to have northerly winds and lower dew point temperatures tomorrow, but high temperatures will creep back into the low 90ºs.

Rain chances will continue to stay minimal, as an area of surface high pressure will slide in behind today’s weak cold front and keep us dry:

Overnight lows will be in the low 70ºs.

FRIDAY – High Humidity Returns – Wake Up: 72°, High: 97º

Southerly winds and higher dew point temperatures will return by Friday, along with the passage of a warm front:

Like we need a warm front in July…

The front may bring some showers in the morning hours as it passes, but rain chances still look less than impressive:

EXTENDED:  Maybe Some Storms Saturday. Otherwise, HOT Temps Return 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9:00 PM

Current Radar

4 PM ONWARD – Round 1: COMPLETE, Round 2: SEE BELOW

*Updated with latest SPC graphics at 11:30 AM, Severe T-Storm Watch at 2:00 PM, & Evening Outlook at 4:10 PM -Kaiti*
Both Williamson and Davidson Counties are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (area outlined in blue) until 9 PM:
Here’s the breakdown of possible hazards within the time frame of the watch:
Similar to what the SPC graphics below tell us, the biggest concerns this afternoon and evening will be for wind and/or hail events. 

We are still under an enhanced risk for severe weather today through tomorrow morning at 7 AM:

In other terms:

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Here’s the categorical risks:

By the numbers, hail and strong winds will remain the biggest risks. The tornado risk has gone down from 5% to 2%, so that’s good news. However, we really can’t completely rule out an isolated tornado. Also, we have been removed from the hatched area that put us in the path of possible 2 inch+ hail. BUT – the main concerns with storms today/tonight are hail (1 inch in diameter+) and damaging winds

The main line of storms associated with Round 1 is slowly creeping out of Williamson County at this time. 

Now, we take a breather, and look ahead to what is setting up to be Round 2. 

Earlier we mentioned the potential for a MCS [“big hairy line of thunderstorms” – David] to arrive. I don’t think we will get in on that action. (This is good.)

8 PM – We’re (potentially) on the weak end of the line:

And as we approach midnight, showers and storms remain possible:

Here is the NAM4 model:

This model is much more aggressive, and sticks with the MCS scenario a bit more. I’m not convinced, but it will be something to watch.

I wanted to add this model in just to show the difference in model runs. BUT, HRRR model (less aggressive) did better with Round 1, so that’s good news.

Note: specific times with these model runs are not exact ETAs. Think of it as more of a general time frame. 

Post-midnight, things should be winding down for real.

Bottom line: we are not out of the woods yet, though these latest model runs are much more friendly to us than what we were looking at this morning.

Stay weather aware the rest of the day, especially if you’re headed out. I would bet you run into at least one more storm before the day is done. Said storm will likely have very strong winds and maybe even some hail.

WEDNESDAY – Slim Chance for Rain & a Hot Afternoon – Wake Up: 73°, High: 91º

Looks like tomorrow will be our rebound day after a busy weather day today…

The afternoon will still be hot, but not as humid.

Rain/storm chances look weak throughout the afternoon and into the evening:

 

EXTENDED: Hot. Very Hot. 

 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.