Hot Weekend Ahead

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 88° by 7 PM 

Storms are approaching the TN/KY border to our north. Check-in on Twitter for updates. 

Both the HRRR and NAM4 models have a chance for rain this evening:

Both models are picking up on a frontal boundary sagging south into northern Tennessee. If the boundary can hold together, a few showers and maybe a scattered storm are possible, especially earlier in the evening while the sun is still up.

Otherwise, conditions will be warm and muggy overnight.

SATURDAY – Hot, But a Nice, Summer Saturday – Wake Up: 73°, High: 93º

We’ll be keeping with the hot and probably dry weather pattern through the weekend.

There is just a slight chance for showers/storms tomorrow, but high pressure will be well-established and there won’t be a frontal boundary immediately to our north like there has been the last few days.

So, I think we’ve got even smaller chances for rain going into tomorrow:

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be hot!

Models are picking up on some scattered showers through the evening hours, but again, I think we’ll be staying dry:

SUNDAY – The Mercury Continues to Rise – Wake Up: 72°, High: 95º

You guessed it: hot and slim rain chances to round-out the weekend.

EXTENDED: Highs Staying in the 90°s 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Slight Chance for Rain Over the Next Few Days

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 88° by 7 PM 

Things should be dry for your evening plans!

It’ll be warm, though. Overnight lows will be in the low 70°s.

FRIDAY – Another Hot & Mostly Dry Day – Wake Up: 73°, High: 93º

Slim rain chances will follow us into tomorrow, as well:

The NAM4 model isn’t picking up on much of anything, but its not impossible that we could see a scattered shower throughout the day.

Expect plenty of sun tomorrow, as well. High temperatures will once again be in the low 90°s.

SATURDAY – Nice Pool Weather – Wake Up: 72°, High: 94º

Highs will climb into the mid 90°s by Saturday. Slight rain chances once again will make for some nice pool/outdoor weather!

EXTENDED: Just Slight Rain/Storm Chances through the Weekend 

Note: I’m very excited for the Minions movie to come out tomorrow.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Chances Diminishing, Temperatures Rising

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 86° by 7 PM 

Conditions will be warm this evening thanks to the sunshine we’ll get throughout the day.

But, the rain will continue to stay away:

It’s not out of the question that we’ll catch a shower or storm overnight, though chances aren’t overly impressive:

THURSDAY – Slight Cance of Rain – Wake Up: 73°, High: 91º

Looks like tomorrow will be another day of seeing if high pressure can keep the rain out.

There will be yet another frontal boundary/rainmaker to our north, but we should stay dry:

There is a slight chance a shower or thunderstorm could drift south into our area. Otherwise, expect enough sun to warm us up to the low 90°s in the afternoon.

It should be a nice day for a scooter ride…

FRIDAY – Really Heating-Up – Wake Up: 70°, High: 94º

The mid 90°s return by Friday, with another slight chance for showers/rumbles of thunder.

Overall, high pressure will continue to keep things dry:

EXTENDED: Nice, but Hot, Weekend Ahead

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dry Start, but Rain Arrives Later

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 84° by 7 PM 

Thunderstorms (1 severe at this time) are in the area as of 6:15 PM. Please check-in with us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for updates!

Showers and storms will continue into the evening hours:

That cold front will get close to the KY/TN border, but it won’t make its way through Tennessee. That high pressure will create enough of a barrier, though,  that most rain should stay near I-40 or just to the north.

Lows will be in the low 70°s, with showers and some rumbles of thunder continuing overnight.

WEDNESDAY – Rainy Start – Wake Up: 73°, High: 90º

Tomorrow will begin rainy, as the front to our north continues to skirt around Tennessee:

The rain should be gone by early to mid afternoon:

Clouds will begin to break-up in the afternoon, allowing things to really warm-up with highs in the low 90°s.

Temps will fall to the low 70°s overnight.

THURSDAY – More Sunshine, Small Chance of Rain – Wake Up: 71°, High: 93º

There is a chance of showers/thunderstorms on Thursday, but the majority of us will miss out:

I think we’ll see more sun than anything as that high pressure builds over Tennessee.

EXTENDED: Looking good…

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Slight Risk for Severe Storms Continues This Evening

Current Radar


We are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms through early tomorrow morning:

While strong storms are likely to continue for areas inside this brown line, we’re not expecting a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued:

Damaging winds and hail will be of greatest concern with today’s storms:

The tornado risk is practically non-existent:

Here’s NWS Nashville’s threat graphic, which includes flooding:

The flooding risk has been raised a bit today, and will continue to be of concern as more rain arrives through the weekend.

HRRR future radar loop from lunchime to 2 AM shows most — but not all — of the evening rain and storm activity to our south:

However, it doesn’t look like activity will end completely overnight. Lows will remain near 70°.

In addition, tonight our NWS office issued a Flash Flood Watch for Davidson County, where an additional 2″ to 4″ of rain is possible through Saturday night.

FRIDAY – Another Day, Another Chance for Rain – Wake Up: 70°, High: 80º

We have a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow:

Tomorrow looks similar to today, with showers and storms beginning early and continuing throughout the day. However, we may catch a bit of a break early-on:

But, things will pick up by the afternoon:

If you’re headed to the USMNT game tomorrow evening, things don’t look too bad, according to this model:


We’ll know more as more model runs come out today, but hopefully we’ll catch a break tomorrow evening for the game.

SATURDAY – A Rainy 4th – Wake Up: 67°, High: 80º

Rain chances will continue into Saturday, as the dip in the jet stream over the eastern US will continue to allow disturbances (rainmakers) to move through the Midwest and swing rain/storms our way.

Unfortunately, it looks like we won’t be able to shake this pattern until after this weekend. If you have outdoor plans for the 4th of July, I would start making indoor plans.

Looks like a wet afternoon:

And, a wet evening:

EXTENDED: Wet Weekend Ahead

With so much rain in the short-term and extended forecasts, NWS Nashville issued this statement on flooding concerns:

Remember: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Take it easy out there!

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

After The Storms…

Current Radar

*Updated with Severe Thunderstorm Watch at 11:50 AM – Kaiti* 

TODAY – Storms Gone…For Today – High: 83º

Both the HRRR model (shown) and the NAM4 model (not shown) agree that this afternoon’s activity will be southeast of us well before 7 PM:

However, as the pink arrow above indicates, more rain may arrive late tonight:

Showers and some storms are possible through the overnight hours. But I think your awake-time tonight should be OK for going out, Sounds game, etc.

Temperatures overnight will fall to around 70°.

THURSDAY – Slight Risk for Severe Storms Once Again – Wake Up: 70°, High: 81º

As of this morning, we are under a slight risk tomorrow, as well:

We’ll likely get off to a rainy start, followed by more afternoon showers and storms:

So, what is causing all of this rain? I like to think of it as the Disturbance Carousel:

The dip in the jet stream over the eastern US is allowing for disturbances (rainmakers) to continue to move through the Midwest and swing rain/storms our way.

Unfortunately, it looks like we won’t be able to shake this pattern before the 4th of July this weekend.

Start making indoor plans, just in case.

EXTENDED:  Dodging Storms on the 4th 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Update: Marginal Risk for Severe Storms Today

Current Radar

*Updated with latest SPC update at 12:27 PM -Kaiti

THIS EVENING – Staying Dry (Most Likely)

We have been downgraded to a MARGINAL risk of severe thunderstorms today:


Here’s the breakdown of wind, tornado, and hail risks:

Flooding is also of concern today, as these storms will likely produce heavy downpours.

NWS Nashville puts the flooding threat between LOW and MEDIUM:

As evening approaches, both models also agree that things will begin to quiet-down by 7 PM or so:

Now, what’s to blame for all this? That would be a weak cold front that’s still off to our north this morning. As it swings through today, our storm chances go up.

For more immediate updates, stick with us on Twitter throughout the day.

Mild overnight temps near 70°.

WEDNESDAY – More Afternoon Storms – Wake Up: 69º, High: 83º

Tomorrow brings another chance for rain, and the severe risk will also be marginal:


Another front will hang around to our north, allowing for storms ahead of it to head our way.

Timing: a few showers may roll through overnight, but most storms will roll through tomorrow afternoon and evening.



EXTENDED: Thunderstorm Chances Each Day through the 4th 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Heat Advisory Today

Current Radar


Williamson and Davidson Counties are 2 of the counties under a heat advisory today until 7 PM this evening:

Another HEAT SAFETY Reminder:

Please take it easy out there for the rest of the day. Lows tonight will be mild, in the mid 70°s.

FRIDAY – Last Day of 90°s (for a little while) – Wake Up: 74º, High: 90º

Big changes arrive tomorrow as the weather pattern begins to shift. As that area of high pressure responsible for today’s heat erodes, a large dip in the jet stream will take it’s place.

This will allow an area of low pressure to begin to move east across the Midwest:

This will set us up for some showers and maybe a storm or two tomorrow afternoon:

We are still keeping an eye on the cold front associated with that low that is poised to pass through our area late Friday and early Saturday:

While a few thunderstorms are possible as the front moves through, the severe risk is low:

However, we can’t rule out a severe storm or two. Strong winds and heavy downpours are likely, even in non-severe storms.

SATURDAY – Rain Early, Then Clearing Out – Wake Up: 70º, High: 79º

Rain and some storms may still be around early Saturday, but should fully end by the afternoon:

The severe risk is low for Saturday, as well:

The best news out of all this? Highs in the upper 70°s Saturday afternoon after the rain ends!

EXTENDED: Sunny and Low 80°s by Sunday!!!


This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Hot, but Lower Heat Index Values

Current Radar

THIS EVENING: 85° by 7 PM 

It’ll still be quite warm by this evening, but skies should be mostly clear and the rain will continue to stay away:

Temperatures will bottom out in the low 70°s overnight.

THURSDAY – Higher Heat Index Values = Higher Heat Danger – Wake Up: 72º, High: 96º

As if we didn’t have enough heat in the vicinity, a warm front will pass through early on Thursday.

This will cause winds to become more southerly tomorrow, allowing for more moisture to creep-in.

This will also help to push our high temperature for tomorrow to near 96°.

Because of this, heat index values will be back up to dangerously high levels.


Don’t expect any relief in the form of rain, either. We should stay dry tomorrow, as well:

FRIDAY – Severe Storms Possible – Wake Up: 75º, High: 89º

Friday afternoon brings a chance for some severe weather as a large weather pattern shift occurs.

The jet stream will take a big dip down into the eastern US, knocking out the ridge (high pressure) that has been in place for over a week now.

This will open the door for a low pressure system to move through, bringing some thunderstorms with it.

We are on the cusp of marginal/slight severe risk for Friday:

Right now, the concerns with any severe storms look to be strong, damaging winds and small hail.

Here’s one model output for Friday evening. The timing of the cold front (line of storms NW of Tennessee) will be key here.

This Morning’s Model Run: 

Latest Model Run as of 5:15 PM Wednesday:

Still thinking this will be a late Friday/early Saturday rain/thunderstorm event.

More on this tomorrow.

EXTENDED: Storms Gone by Sunday 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Hot & Chance for Storms this PM

Current Radar

This Evening – The Heat Continues 

As a front approaches this afternoon, we’ll likely see some showers, but not much in the way of thunderstorms. We are in a marginal risk for severe weather through tonight:

The HRRR and NAM4 Models are not in great agreement on timing or quantity. Here’s 8 PM:

So, who do we believe? Neither….fully, that is.

My gut tells me that the HRRR model (1st and 3rd image) is a bit too fast bringing the front in and pushing it through. However, I also think the NAM4 model is waaaaay overdoing it in terms of how much rain we’ll get.

To add another perspective, NWS Nashville gives us a 20% chance for rain today.

All that being said, expect some scattered showers and a few storms beginning mid-to-late afternoon and hanging around through about 10 PM.

*Note: as of 5:30 PM, radar is revealing that the HRRR model scenario is likely the winner here.

Mild temperatures and muggy conditions will carry us through to Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY – Another Hot One – Wake Up: 74º, High: 92º

High temperatures will once again be in the low 90°s tomorrow, with heat index values near 100°.


It’ll be very hot today, but it will be even hotter tomorrow and Thursday. 

So, as we stare another week of very hot afternoons in the face, here’s a look at some heat safety tips from NWS Nashville: 

More sunshine is expected tomorrow as an area of high pressure settles back into our area following the passage of the cold front.

However, there is still a little chance of some thunderstorm and shower activity as things heat up in the afternoon hours, by models are painting tomorrow as dry.

THURSDAY – Higher Heat Index Values = Higher Heat Danger – Wake Up: 73º, High: 95º

As high temperatures climb to the mid 90°s by Thursday, that will push heat index values to near 105° in the afternoon.

Please be extra careful as you’re outdoors all this week!



From yesterday’s blog:

“Usually in the summer, there’s plenty of potential thunderstorm energy in place, but no real large scale forcing mechanism (like a cold front) to set it off.

That may change Friday night or Saturday as the general weather pattern shifts.

Both the GFS and Euro weather models are advertising the approach of a cold front. In an environment with plenty of potential energy and shear, we may see a storm “event.” However, this would by very unusual for late June, so this far away we need to remain skeptical of this set-up. More details tomorrow. We’ll see if the weather models hold on to it.”

Update: Models have hung onto it. But, in the world of weather, there is still plenty of time for things to change. Bottom line is that showers and storms will likely be around for most of the weekend. We’ll keep you updated.

From Kaiti: Sorry for the long post! Sometimes I drink too much coffee 🙂 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.