4 PM ONWARD – Round 1: COMPLETE, Round 2: SEE BELOW
*Updated with latest SPC graphics at 11:30 AM, Severe T-Storm Watch at 2:00 PM, & Evening Outlook at 4:10 PM -Kaiti*
Both Williamson and Davidson Counties are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (area outlined in blue) until 9 PM:
Here’s the breakdown of possible hazards within the time frame of the watch:
Similar to what the SPC graphics below tell us, the biggest concerns this afternoon and evening will be for wind and/or hail events.
We are still under an enhanced risk for severe weather today through tomorrow morning at 7 AM:
In other terms:
Here’s the categorical risks:
By the numbers, hail and strong winds will remain the biggest risks. The tornado risk has gone down from 5% to 2%, so that’s good news. However, we really can’t completely rule out an isolated tornado. Also, we have been removed from the hatched area that put us in the path of possible 2 inch+ hail. BUT – the main concerns with storms today/tonight are hail (1 inch in diameter+) and damaging winds
The main line of storms associated with Round 1 is slowly creeping out of Williamson County at this time.
Now, we take a breather, and look ahead to what is setting up to be Round 2.
Earlier we mentioned the potential for a MCS [“big hairy line of thunderstorms” – David] to arrive. I don’t think we will get in on that action. (This is good.)
8 PM – We’re (potentially) on the weak end of the line:
And as we approach midnight, showers and storms remain possible:
Here is the NAM4 model:
This model is much more aggressive, and sticks with the MCS scenario a bit more. I’m not convinced, but it will be something to watch.
I wanted to add this model in just to show the difference in model runs. BUT, HRRR model (less aggressive) did better with Round 1, so that’s good news.
Note: specific times with these model runs are not exact ETAs. Think of it as more of a general time frame.
Post-midnight, things should be winding down for real.
Bottom line: we are not out of the woods yet, though these latest model runs are much more friendly to us than what we were looking at this morning.
Stay weather aware the rest of the day, especially if you’re headed out. I would bet you run into at least one more storm before the day is done. Said storm will likely have very strong winds and maybe even some hail.
WEDNESDAY – Slim Chance for Rain & a Hot Afternoon – Wake Up: 73°, High: 91º
Looks like tomorrow will be our rebound day after a busy weather day today…
The afternoon will still be hot, but not as humid.
Rain/storm chances look weak throughout the afternoon and into the evening:
EXTENDED: Hot. Very Hot.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs