Current Radar
Our Severe Thunderstorm Watch will expire at 8 PM, but rain and storms are scattered to our southwest, moving this way, and may impact fireworks shows.
Our Go/No thoughts on tonight:
A few rainers and storms are off to our SW. Can't say whether fireworks will be stormed/rained on or not. Unlikely *all* shows will rainout.
Current Radar
Watch says "primary threats include scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, isolated large hail events to 1 inch diameter possible."
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) July 4, 2016
Current Radar
Today’s weather concern is potential for flash flooding, frequent lightning, and maybe severe weather (damaging straight-line winds).
Last night, a weak line of storms sank down from the KY/TN border, and dumped a lot of rain on Montgomery County (Clarksville), getting as far south as northern Davidson County. It quickly lifted north, and that’s where the rain will be for most of the morning.
Scattered showers and storms should develop before noon to our northwest, then move east. As the day progresses, showers and storms are expected to scatter throughout most of Middle Tennessee, including us. Exactly when/where they will scatter is unknown, but as you go through the day, your chance of rain will increase.
From NWS-Nashville:
The bulk of rainfall and severe wx potential will be located just north of TN, but there will be enough dynamic support, along with deep moisture and instability, to bring a few strong to severe storms to the Mid State.
Current Radar
A Tornado Watch remains effective to our north in Kentucky until 10 PM:
We are not included in the Tornado Watch area, but the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked Hendersonville and extreme northern Davidson County in its 2% probability of seeing a tornado within 25 miles tonight:
Current Radar
Hey y’all. Good morning, or afternoon if you’re reading this, you know, in the afternoon.
Today looks like the better weather day.
Today looks tolerable, low 90°s with mid-60°s dewpoint, pretty common in July. No big deal.
Tomorrow and this week, however, the dewpoint will be near 70°, which means very humid conditions. As for temps, clouds will cover up the sun and keep highs around 90° Monday and Tuesday, but as the skies clear and we return to normal July weather Tuesday and beyond, temps rise into the mid-90°s. We’ll be close to heat advisory levels then (those are issued when the heat index gets to 105°).
Sunday
The worst of the weather will be north and northwest of us. Blame low pressure in Oklahoma and Nebraska, and, extending from that, a warm front:
We are too far away from the warm front for a high probability of strong/severe storms, or really even much rain. However, because we are on the south side (the warm side) of that front, rain and storms can — and probably will — develop somewhere in Middle Tennessee this afternoon and tonight.
Where/When? We don’t know.
Here’s what the models show:
HRRR model gives us off/on showers today. Notice the heaviest stuff north and northwest of us:
This is as rainy as the NAM4 model gets for us today:
Hopefully, your crap apps are showing around 30% probability of precipitation. I think that’s a fair number. The greatest risk of getting thirty-percented is in the mid/late afternoon hours, when instability is greatest.
Independence Day
Remember that low (the red L circled) on the map above? Well, by Monday, that low moves east. It’ll still be north of us, and the corresponding warm front will also still be north of us, but because the low will be closer, our rain chances will increase.
NWS-Nashville cuts right to the chase:
Coverage of thunderstorms in Mid Tn is expected to peak Monday evening, likely impacting Independence Day events. Some storms could be severe, with gusty winds being the main concern.
The current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center puts the larger risk of severe weather in Kentucky:
NWS-Nashville cautions:
Right now, SPC shows a marginal risk for Mid Tn with the slight risk to our north. It does look like the greater coverage and intensity of storms will be located to our north, but the slight risk area may need to be expanded southward in updated outlooks.
Current Radar
As forecast, early afternoon temps are in the low 90°s. Humidity decreased after lunch, with the dew point 3° lower than we expected. The atmosphere “mixes” in the afternoon (air near the surface mixes with drier air aloft), hence the lowering of the dewpoint.
Current Radar
Afternoon temps will be in the low 90°s. Remember — official temps are taken in the shade. It’ll be hotter at CMAFest because (1) you don’t get a lot of wind in a crowd, (2) you’re basically on a pavement island; the albado effect will heat you up, (3) most of you are in the sun, (4) you’re surrounded by other people who are giving off heat, and, most important, (5) . . .
Current Radar
The rain cleared out pretty fast this morning, shoving the clouds east. Rain chances do not return until maybe Sunday night — as in a week from now.
We may see fog in spots during the wee hours of Monday morning. The temp will dip into the mid-60°s with dewpoints not far behind. That means fog.
