Current Radar
The correct pronunciation of the G in GIF is…
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) July 16, 2016
Author: David
More Rain Coming This Week. When’s It Going to Get HOT?
Current Radar
The Rain Never Came Today
Rain and storms remained stuck near the MS/TN/AL borders. A few showers lifted north toward our air, but those were zapped by drier and more stable air.
We did get a pretty cool roll cloud, though.
Roll cloud? @NWSNashville @NashSevereWx pic.twitter.com/F0F3yfmptc
— David Howe (@DHdeeder) July 10, 2016
Higher Rain Chances on the Way
Rain chances Monday and Tuesday will be higher than the common “summertime pop-up” set ups. Let’s quote NWS!
As the northeast trough lifts out and heights rise, deeper moisture lurking just south of Tennessee will return northward late tonight through Monday. Also, a weak upper trough that has been sitting over north Mississippi will slowly lift north northeastward. These features will combine to spread scattered showers and a few storms across the Mid State on Monday and into Tuesday as well.
More Rain? It’s Summer, So....
Current Radar
Sunday – An Area of Light Rain Should Lift North Toward I-40
It’s raining this morning at the Alabama/Tennessee border.
We think that rain will creep north.
The HRRR model illustrates:
Notice how this model lifts what looks like a pretty big blob of light rain through the morning, then by 1 PM, it vanishes. We don’t think it’ll happen exactly like that, but we do think the rain should be decreasing as it comes north. It may not even make it.
Fireworks: Go/NoGo?
Current Radar
Our Severe Thunderstorm Watch will expire at 8 PM, but rain and storms are scattered to our southwest, moving this way, and may impact fireworks shows.
Our Go/No thoughts on tonight:
A few rainers and storms are off to our SW. Can't say whether fireworks will be stormed/rained on or not. Unlikely *all* shows will rainout.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Davidson County until 8 PM
Current Radar
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Davidson County until 8 PM
Watch says "primary threats include scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, isolated large hail events to 1 inch diameter possible."
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) July 4, 2016
Is It Going To Rain Or Not?
Current Radar
Happy Fourth!
Today’s weather concern is potential for flash flooding, frequent lightning, and maybe severe weather (damaging straight-line winds).
Last night, a weak line of storms sank down from the KY/TN border, and dumped a lot of rain on Montgomery County (Clarksville), getting as far south as northern Davidson County. It quickly lifted north, and that’s where the rain will be for most of the morning.
Scattered showers and storms should develop before noon to our northwest, then move east. As the day progresses, showers and storms are expected to scatter throughout most of Middle Tennessee, including us. Exactly when/where they will scatter is unknown, but as you go through the day, your chance of rain will increase.
From NWS-Nashville:
The bulk of rainfall and severe wx potential will be located just north of TN, but there will be enough dynamic support, along with deep moisture and instability, to bring a few strong to severe storms to the Mid State.
Fourthcast!
Current Radar
Tonight
A Tornado Watch remains effective to our north in Kentucky until 10 PM:
We are not included in the Tornado Watch area, but the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked Hendersonville and extreme northern Davidson County in its 2% probability of seeing a tornado within 25 miles tonight:
Fourthcast
Current Radar
Hey y’all. Good morning, or afternoon if you’re reading this, you know, in the afternoon.
Today looks like the better weather day.
Temps/Humidity
Today looks tolerable, low 90°s with mid-60°s dewpoint, pretty common in July. No big deal.
Tomorrow and this week, however, the dewpoint will be near 70°, which means very humid conditions. As for temps, clouds will cover up the sun and keep highs around 90° Monday and Tuesday, but as the skies clear and we return to normal July weather Tuesday and beyond, temps rise into the mid-90°s. We’ll be close to heat advisory levels then (those are issued when the heat index gets to 105°).
Rain & Storm Potential
Sunday
The worst of the weather will be north and northwest of us. Blame low pressure in Oklahoma and Nebraska, and, extending from that, a warm front:
We are too far away from the warm front for a high probability of strong/severe storms, or really even much rain. However, because we are on the south side (the warm side) of that front, rain and storms can — and probably will — develop somewhere in Middle Tennessee this afternoon and tonight.
Where/When? We don’t know.
Here’s what the models show:
HRRR model gives us off/on showers today. Notice the heaviest stuff north and northwest of us:
This is as rainy as the NAM4 model gets for us today:
Hopefully, your crap apps are showing around 30% probability of precipitation. I think that’s a fair number. The greatest risk of getting thirty-percented is in the mid/late afternoon hours, when instability is greatest.
Independence Day
Remember that low (the red L circled) on the map above? Well, by Monday, that low moves east. It’ll still be north of us, and the corresponding warm front will also still be north of us, but because the low will be closer, our rain chances will increase.
NWS-Nashville cuts right to the chase:
Coverage of thunderstorms in Mid Tn is expected to peak Monday evening, likely impacting Independence Day events. Some storms could be severe, with gusty winds being the main concern.
The current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center puts the larger risk of severe weather in Kentucky:
NWS-Nashville cautions:
Right now, SPC shows a marginal risk for Mid Tn with the slight risk to our north. It does look like the greater coverage and intensity of storms will be located to our north, but the slight risk area may need to be expanded southward in updated outlooks.
So Far So Good
Current Radar
So Far So Good, But It’s Still Hot
As forecast, early afternoon temps are in the low 90°s. Humidity decreased after lunch, with the dew point 3° lower than we expected. The atmosphere “mixes” in the afternoon (air near the surface mixes with drier air aloft), hence the lowering of the dewpoint.
Oppressive Humidity Today, Talking (Low) Rain Chances
Current Radar
It’s Gonna Be Hot Again
Afternoon temps will be in the low 90°s. Remember — official temps are taken in the shade. It’ll be hotter at CMAFest because (1) you don’t get a lot of wind in a crowd, (2) you’re basically on a pavement island; the albado effect will heat you up, (3) most of you are in the sun, (4) you’re surrounded by other people who are giving off heat, and, most important, (5) . . .