Locally dense fog remains possible beginning at midnight tonight lasting through the mid-morning hours on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
The HRRR model illustrates:
That wintry weather will not come here, but the rain will. The rain ETA has bounced between late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Bet on Tuesday morning.
We never officially got above freezing at BNA (high 30°), but remember, the official temp is measured inside a shade box. Sunlit areas very likely rose above freezing, aiding in snow/ice melt.
Ice you can see, and black ice you can’t see, should still be an issue on many secondary roads tonight and in the morning. We will drop to 20° before the sun comes up Monday morning.
Officially, BNA dropped to 8° this morning. A few personal/COOP weather stations around town went lower, 2° in Brentwood and 3° in Franklin.
Today’s official high is 29°, but that’s in the shade; most places exposed to the sun should go over freezing and evaporate/melt the snow. Shaded areas will have a more difficult time clearing ice/snow.
We went to bed last night expecting under 1″ of snow along and south of I-40, with no accumulating snow north of I-40, as seen here:
Friday's expected snow totals, via @NWSNashville pic.twitter.com/kO8z9Xv55H
Should You Panic? No.
Why Not? Most of it looks like it will go north of us.
Our current radar also shows the majority of it skating across the southern Kentucky border which is what the HRRR model below thought it would do.
Clouds are increasing. Tonight is just another cold night. The Winter Weather Advisory is not for tonight.
Here’s the text of the Winter Weather Advisory:
This advisory DOES NOT MEAN we will get a lot of snowfall. We are currently expecting up to one inch but will likely see less than that. A dusting appears more likely.
You probably don’t know him. Mr. Boyd has worked over 50 years in public service to this community as a forecaster at the NWS office in Nashville. He didn’t want a big deal made of his retirement, so if I can presume to speak for Nashville and all of Middle Tennessee, I’ll leave this here simply with a sincere “thank you.”
Strong and severe storms are only possible south of the low pressure (the red “L” in the above image) on days like this. Although we cannot rule out a strong or severe storm or two, I’m feeling no anxiety about the storms tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center has kept the tornado threat south of us:
What’s Happening?
A warm front is heading our way today. Temperatures and dew points will continue to rise. As this happens, lapse rates will grow, and so will rain-and-storm-supportive instability/energy.
