Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Morning (Kinda)
Rainy & Cloudy Monday: 40°/63°
The HRRR model’s simulated radar thinks light rain will be close to us around lunchtime.
This will be off/on rain, and really not very much of it. Expect less than 0.10″; rainouts appear unlikely.
Strong/Severe Storms Tuesday
The Storm Prediction Center has included us in its very large risk area for severe weather:
What: Damaging winds and hail are the most likely hazards; the tornado and flood risk is lower (but not zero).
Our local NWS office put out this graphic:
ETA: in the morning — which is good news.
The “when” will change the “what.” The morning ETA is good news. A morning arrival will limit our severe potential.
This afternoon, our NWS summarized things nicely.
The best lift, max heating, and low level jet are not in phase. So, there continues to be potential for severe storms with our area under SPC`s slight risk. But, we are looking at a lower severe potential than we would have if all the parameters came together at the right time. Damaging straight line winds continue to be the main concern, with some potential for large hail. Wind fields suggest a low tornado threat.
Severe weather requires the arrival of several ingredients (lift, heating, low level jet are a few of them) all at the same time. Right now, models indicate the ingredients needed for severe weather will be getting to us at different times.
The NAM3 model displays a pretty weak event Tuesday morning:
This “event” currently looks unimpressive, but it’s not something we should ignore. The Euro still thinks we will have plenty of instability and enough shear to set off some mean storms. So check back tomorrow, here, on Twitter @NashSevereWx, and watch local TV meteorologists.
The Weekend Guess
60°s! And maybe some more rain.
Categories: Forecast Blogs