There are Two Chances for Snow over the next 24 hours.
Chance #1: Thursday, From Now Until 9 PM
Should You Panic? No.
Why Not? Most of it looks like it will go north of us.
Our current radar also shows the majority of it skating across the southern Kentucky border which is what the HRRR model below thought it would do.
A few flakes have been squeezed out of the atmosphere over the past hour. Right now appears to be just a dusting of snow flurries.
Should You Not Worry About It At All? We are not saying that. Some snow could “sag” south from Kentucky and reach us tonight. Some of it is already beginning to. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until midnight.
Any snow we do see tonight should stick and cause some minor travel hazards.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) January 5, 2017
Are You Sure About That? No. This is a snow forecast in Middle Tennessee. This is not death, taxes, or [insert your team that wins “x” every year].
Chance #2: Friday Morning & Early Afternoon
What We’re Talking About: A dusting (more likely) to 1″ of snow (less likely) that could come out of the circled area
When: Sometime Friday morning, depending on which model you believe
Which Way Will It Go? We don’t know.
The RPM, GFS, and Canadian models think it will pass to our south and we will get nothing.
HRRR, Euro, NAM3, and NAM4 models think it will come our way. If I had to bet $5, I’d bet on these models. I would not bet $10.
Here is the latest HRRR model when extends through 9 AM tomorrow:
If It Comes, Will the Dry Air Monster Destroy it All Like It Did This Morning? The D.A.M. will eat some of it, but not all of it.
If We Get It, Could It Overperform; Meaning, Could We Get More Than 1″? I don’t want to rule that out, but right now none of the models think this will be a more than 1″ event. Sure, all the models could be wrong, but I would not bet on that, either.
Could a Dusting of Snow Cause Travel Problems Friday? Some, yeah, assuming of course we get some. It should not snarl the city. It’ll be pretty cold, though, and the snow should stick. There just won’t be very much of it.
Will our current Winter Weather Advisory (set to expire at midnight) be continued into tomorrow?
At the moment, this is what our local NWS has said about the WWA in this afternoon’s discussion:
“Will probably allow the evening shift to take a look at the new 00z model guidance before making a decision on a potential Winter Weather Advisory for our southern areas on Friday and Friday night.”
So for now no. If that changes we will let you know.
How Much Do We Expect Total, Thursday and Friday? Under 1″. Here’s the official forecast from NWS-Nashville.
Should I Check Multiple Reliable Sources for Snow Information? Yes. Check often for updates and changes to the forecast. Dramatic changes are possible, so stay tuned.
Will Alabama Beat Clemson? Ask Clay Travis.
Categories: Forecast Blogs