More rain, with maybe a little lightning, is on the way tonight.

Flash flooding (a flood that happens almost suddenly, due to heavy rain and run off) is tonight’s primary weather concern.

A lot of rain has fallen. The below map is a radar estimate as of 6 PM. The purple indicates radar estimates of 1.5″ to 2″ or more, and are especially vulnerable to flash flooding tonight/overnight. read more

This afternoon’s storms produced a few downed trees and limbs, and some localized flooding. Those storms have departed south and east down I-24.

More Storms Tonight?

From around 4 PM to 6 PM, the rain should switch “off.” The HRRR model predicts more rain beginning around (maybe before?) 7 PM, and continuing for at least a few more hours. read more

Today’s Father’s Day forecast is kinda like this.

Expect thunderstorms.

At 8:45 AM, weak storms near Paducah, KY, are moving slowly our way down I-24. Those storms should strengthen as they approach and encounter a hotter, more destabilized airmass here in Davidson & Williamson Counties. read more

Humidity increases tonight. The dewpoint will rise past past 65° around 7 PM and settle in around 67° by 10 PM, which will be more humid than it’s been all week. Even though the temp will drop into the 70°s by 10 PM, those of you outside will be looking for water. It’ll be that humid. read more

Flash Flood Watch for Davidson County until 10:00 am Monday.

Our NWS has their eye on the possibility of training thunderstorms overnight. So, they’ve issued this watch. We’ll keep an eye on it as well.

Thru 3:30 PM, radar estimates 1″ of rain has fallen (in yellow, below), mostly in Williamson County: read more

This morning, NWS-Nashville wrote “Today through late Monday…the mid-state expected to remain in deep moisture regime…with a series of upper impulses passing …and with a few weak low-level boundaries in the immediate vicinity.” read more

It’s Memorial Day. As long as we’re doing this, we will remember Army Spc. Jason K. Edens. We remember him today.

He was born in Nashville. He graduated from Franklin High School in 2007. After a few semesters in college, he joined the Army then married Ashley.  Assigned to the 1st Squadron, 13th Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division at Fort Bliss, Texas, he was deployed to Afghanistan in the fall of 2011. read more

As I write this, a cold front is arriving, scattering a few isolated showers across both counties, moving from west to east. This hit-or-miss activity may linger for a few hours. The HRRR model continues to show it: read more

How Much Rain Did We Get?

A total of 1.06″ fell in the official rain can at BNA from yesterday’s rain.

Local CoCoRaHS observer totals in Davidson County:

And Williamson County:

Radar Estimated Storm Total Rainfall, which isn’t that reliable for raw totals, but it has a good idea of who got the most rain. Green is less than 1″ and yellow is more than 1″: read more

So when’s it going to rain this weekend?

Let’s start by saying it’s very probably going to rain this weekend. And very probably a lot.

Thru Sunday night, the Euro model predicts 0.5″ to 0.7″, which is more than enough to rain out most anything. The GFS model is running higher totals, between 1.0″ and 1.1″. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has even more, taking the totals closer to 2″. read more