Warning: Weather models aren’t very good at handling summertime thunderstorms.

Summer storms are very hard to predict, but as a general rule: rain and storms are mostly likely to develop between mid/late afternoon and early evening. read more

There are times weather models can see what’s coming so we can provide you a good, reasonably reliable (not perfect), “when and where.”

This is not one of those times.

Weather models, which in a perfect world should arrive at the same thing, predict different things. Weather models also aren’t very good at handling summertime thunderstorms. read more

Monday: Still Incredible

A repeat of Sunday, temp and humidity-wise.

Tuesday Morning Rain Possible

We wrote about it this morning, and this afternoon’s model runs still have it: a quick-passing tuft of rain moving thru in the morning. Here’s the NAM3 model: read more

Today: Incredible

83°, with the dewpoint in the low 50°s. Low fifties! It’s like it’s not even summer!

Monday: Still Incredible

Low 80°s temps, and as far from summertime humidity as we can get.

Tuesday: Will Rain Sneak In?

Very light rain may sneak in from Arkansas and Missouri Tuesday morning, but it looks pretty iffy.  The GFS model shows only a sprinkle passing through Tuesday morning: read more

More rain, with maybe a little lightning, is on the way tonight.

Flash flooding (a flood that happens almost suddenly, due to heavy rain and run off) is tonight’s primary weather concern.

A lot of rain has fallen. The below map is a radar estimate as of 6 PM. The purple indicates radar estimates of 1.5″ to 2″ or more, and are especially vulnerable to flash flooding tonight/overnight. read more

This afternoon’s storms produced a few downed trees and limbs, and some localized flooding. Those storms have departed south and east down I-24.

More Storms Tonight?

From around 4 PM to 6 PM, the rain should switch “off.” The HRRR model predicts more rain beginning around (maybe before?) 7 PM, and continuing for at least a few more hours. read more

Today’s Father’s Day forecast is kinda like this.

Expect thunderstorms.

At 8:45 AM, weak storms near Paducah, KY, are moving slowly our way down I-24. Those storms should strengthen as they approach and encounter a hotter, more destabilized airmass here in Davidson & Williamson Counties. read more

Humidity increases tonight. The dewpoint will rise past past 65° around 7 PM and settle in around 67° by 10 PM, which will be more humid than it’s been all week. Even though the temp will drop into the 70°s by 10 PM, those of you outside will be looking for water. It’ll be that humid. read more

Flash Flood Watch for Davidson County until 10:00 am Monday.

Our NWS has their eye on the possibility of training thunderstorms overnight. So, they’ve issued this watch. We’ll keep an eye on it as well.

Thru 3:30 PM, radar estimates 1″ of rain has fallen (in yellow, below), mostly in Williamson County: read more

This morning, NWS-Nashville wrote “Today through late Monday…the mid-state expected to remain in deep moisture regime…with a series of upper impulses passing …and with a few weak low-level boundaries in the immediate vicinity.” read more