Headlines
1. Heavy rain showers at times, mainly Tuesday night through Thursday, with some flooding possible.
2. Cloudy all week.
3. No severe thunderstorms expected.
We may see a passing shower or two early this morning. HRRR model thru 8 AM:
Author: David
Cloudy Week Ahead, Heavy Rain Wed & Thu, A Nice Easter Weekend?
ETA, Hazards, and Uncertainties: Monday’s Hail, Damaging Winds, & Tornado Risk.
When
1 PM to 5 PM Monday.
Obviously, this risk will occur during school dismissal and the evening commute.
What
Hail, and/or damaging thunderstorm winds, and/or tornadoes.
In the order of likelihood, assuming we get a storm: (1) Hail–most likely. (2) Damaging thunderstorm winds–next most likely. (3) Tornadoes–third most likely. Hail is not that much more likely than tornadoes, though. Consult the below chart from NWS-Nashville:
Severe Weather Concerns Monday; No-Worries Snow Potential Tuesday Night
Quickly, about today, we’re not expecting rain. We may see light rain show up late tonight. Here’s the HRRR model’s prediction thru 11 PM:
Monday’s Severe Weather Concerns
The Storm Prediction Center issues outlooks for severe weather. Six categories for severe weather are used, beginning at general, non-severe thunderstorms, and running all the way from 1 through 5, with five being the “worst.”
Winter Weather Advisory for Nashville; Minor Accumulations Possible for Williamson County
Winter Weather Advisory for Davidson County
Williamson County is excluded from the Advisory.
So, I’m going to break this down by county.
Davidson County
The Winter Weather Advisory is for the northernmost counties in Middle Tennessee. Davidson County is included as part of the second row of those northernmost counties.
Rain Today. PAM Snowfall Overnight.
No, not referring to this Pam:
It gets dark today at 6:51 PM.
Not that we’ll be able to watch the sun set.
HRRR Model Rain Timeline
Cloudy for most of the morning. Isolated showers expected around 1 PM today.
1 PM to 4 PM: Around 2 PM or 3 PM, a blob of light to moderate rain, with pockets of heavy rain, should move in.
Sunday Night-Monday Morning Dusting? Ummm, yeah?
A few minutes ago about an hour ago I was watching basketball (on mute) and Season 2, Episode 10 of The West Wing (“Noel,” one of the series’ best) when I ran across this run of the NAM3 model:
Usually I take the NAM3 with a grain of salt, but yeah, that’s rain tomorrow afternoon turning to wintry precip/snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.
So here I am listening to Pearl Jam (the official music for March snow chances) looking to make sense of it.
Rain Tomorrow, Late Week Freeze, Another Rainy Saturday Ahead?
Rainy Mid-Week Ahead
Two tornadoes struck Clarksville last night. One was rated EF-2 with winds of 125 MPH. The other was EF-1, winds of 105 MPH. There were injuries, but no fatalities from these tornadoes.
Tornadoes took three people yesterday, two in Logan County, KY, near the TN state line. Another person was killed in Clay County, AR, when trailer was blown into a nearby pond.